Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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well radar is deceiving the you know what out of me because it sure looks WNW on this particular loop... I can't see any NNW motion from this loop... zero, zip, nada, none
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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already posted to Lois that the system is consolidating to the west with the system heading NW. System is getting better organized but dont think it will reach hurricane strength until later tomorrow. Pressure is at 1003mb and should slowly drop thru the evening and more so after that as the dry air completly thins out and the upper low to its sw weakens even more.
With the projected forcast track,,its ahard one for floridians cause of where it will make that turn w or wsw into florida and when. Its basically a speed issue with the system. Currently its been moving alittle faster then forcasted by most models except the better . The has though been alittle left. The 12Zs are out and continue to show a slow movement inland near WPB county from the tomorrow night, Friday morning, and later Friday into Friday night. IF the early confirms then I expect a weak hurricane near 80mph making landfall nearWPB County, infact I see it going onshore anywhere from Vero-Ft lauderdale still from a couple days back. IF the confirms a slowdown and movement onshore Friday night then expect a system from 90mph-100mph.
Looking at the data from many sources I will tend to lean towards then middle. Kinda obvious but the hard part is forecasting where it goes after exiting the west coast. I expect first landfall to be around midday Friday-Friday evening with winds around 90mph. A slow w or wsw movement to off Ft.Myers area. It should go down to a strong TS but later Saturday night be upgraded to a hurricane again. It should continue to strengthn possibly up to a Cat 3 by Sunday morning. There is nothing to impead this that I can see. A trough will extend down over the SE US by Sunday and will push the system NNW late Saturday night into Sunday with a bend to the N or NNE somewhere from N of Clearwater-NewPRichie to Cross City later Sunday night or Monday. Again the key will be in the next 48-60 hours on how fast the system comes inland on the east coast of florida. IF faster then it will be a weak hurricane and will make it into the gulf faster and move inline with the model which takes it into the Panhandle of Florida Sunday. Alittle slower will put it in my forecasted path and even slower then me will push this up the peninsula as a TS. Anyways more will be updated late tonight.
scottsvb
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Hopefully, with more recon data coming in, the models will become more uniform in nature. There are so many little things that could affect the track one way or the other. Some models have it coming south of Miami and then turning NE back across the state. Others have it out in the GOM and some have it going due west to Mexico.
The longer it takes to make the predicted turn to the W/WNW, the longer it will be out in very warm waters.
As always, time will be the only thing that dictates the final point of landfall.
And of course, people in the watch/warning areas should be prepared by this point. I don't see it bombing out either, but Mother Nature is a fickle lady. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Well, well, I see that has decided to come and visit us Floridians for the weekend. How sweet of her.
I hope you guys down in Stuart are ready! Or actually anyone down there on the South East Coast. Personally, I hope she doesn't go any farther North as not to disrupt our weather. Naturally, I will be in Lake Placid on Saturday for the Caladium Fesitval - yeehaw. (if doesn't cancel it)
Skeetobite - are you not using the same maps you had last year? Not sure, but I still enjoy looking at what you have! They are perfect!
From your maps she looks pretty compact...you think Polk County will get any affects if she does come in as far South as WPB or MIA?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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OK, I'm posting to myself to tell me that perhaps I was wrong, no, I am wrong, the center from what I can tell on the radar loop is still moving towards the NNW... just a matter of me looking at the loop incorrectly... the center of the system is the second bottom circle on the loop... I sit corrected and presently eating a nice big piece of crow pie...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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The biggest question about intensity once it reaches the gulf is how much is the inner windfields disrupted by the travel over land. Even as flat as florida is, we're still looking at a relatively small and weak system (hopefully) so it could keep some windspeed, but I think the storm will be slow to intensify in the gulf simply trying to put itself back together.
just my two cents
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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O.K. What's this model?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png
Is it any good? Puts her a little closer to me then ya'll down south...LOL! I don't mind the rain but I worry about her staying out to sea too long.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I find that model more accurate than the others with a movement to the NNW it makes it track alittle more comment.
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Remembering last years storms and with Hurricane Floyd, watches/warnings are usually issued for S Fla E Coast first then later issued further up the coast... possibly because S Fla is further East and closer to the storm initially. Can we expect this with as well? Looks to be taking a similar track to and Jeanne throught 1st landfall.
BTW, UKMET just went wide right
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Edited by Jekyhe904 (Wed Aug 24 2005 02:45 PM)
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susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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It looks to me, and I am a layman, that although it is growing in diameter, it's losing some of its strength. Any truth to that?
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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BTW, UKMET just went wide right
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Do you mean the first landfall or the second landfall?
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
It looks to me, and I am a layman, that although it is growing in diameter, it's losing some of its strength. Any truth to that?
My guess is that it's some of the dry air getting worked in and out, it's elongating East to west now some as well. I think that might be what we are seeing on the Miami radar.
I don't expect it to strengthen all that much more until this settles and persists a bit. The center is still unclear.
* Unofficial Forecasts for Post yours!
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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first still looks on track but the 2nd is hooking up the west coast of fla crossing over the N Peninsula near the big bend area.
Previously, it was tracking the storm across the gulf towards the New Orleans area.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Looks to me that it is following the track well based on visible sat. Besides, tracks 24-36 hours out are pretty darn accurate so I can't argue with that. Broward/Palm Beach landfall area is about right i guess. just how strong?? (for me, shutters or not?)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
BTW, UKMET just went wide right
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Do you mean the first landfall or the second landfall?
It's getting a little disconcerting sitting here on the Gulf Coast north of Tampa. The 12Z UKMET has now swung with the , , and toward a much more west coast hugging storm in the GOM which would be deepening just offshore. It'll be interesting to see the 12Z since this model now seems to be the far western outlier once the storm enters the GOM. The takes KAT to a 105 kt storm off of Tampa from the 06Z run. I can only hope that it follows or turns north while it's still on the peninsula. I'm thinking maybe a GOM track adjustment to the east with the next advisory.
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RJB
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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wonder why the models are now shifting to the right (north) after exit from fla. west coast....if this is the case then there could be a major shift in forecast track after it enters the GOM in the 5pm adv.... models turn right?, but i am not sure if i am buying that just yet. Right now this looks like Florida could see more flooding danger from south to north, than anything else!
BUT i should add i think the models just don't have a good handel on the system yet, and like others have said......we will and should have a good picture by late tonight when the G-IV data gets in the runs.....Here's the flight info, which can be found HERE.
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 24 2005 03:47 PM)
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lockjaw
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
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That UKMET thing is pretty alarming....I live ON the beach in St. Pete Beach. The other model this morning (I think CHC) that showed the storm essentially pivoting south of us, then heading north and staying close, was bad enough, but it seemed to be the only one of the models doing that. Now the UKMET looks even worse from my perspective.
If is moving across the state, toward the GOM, then it is pushed north and west by something...what are your thoughts about how strong that push in the Gulf is going to be? I'm going to have to make a call on shutters or not in a day or so, and the main factor is going to be whether the storm takes a gentle turn in GOM (it passes south of us, then moves west into the Gulf before heading north) or takes a hairpin boomerang turn that put it very near, or right on top of me, TWICE in the same day or so...
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
That UKMET thing is pretty alarming....I live ON the beach in St. Pete Beach. The other model this morning (I think CHC) that showed the storm essentially pivoting south of us, then heading north and staying close, was bad enough, but it seemed to be the only one of the models doing that. Now the UKMET looks even worse from my perspective.
If is moving across the state, toward the GOM, then it is pushed north and west by something...what are your thoughts about how strong that push in the Gulf is going to be? I'm going to have to make a call on shutters or not in a day or so, and the main factor is going to be whether the storm takes a gentle turn in GOM (it passes south of us, then moves west into the Gulf before heading north) or takes a hairpin boomerang turn that put it very near, or right on top of me, TWICE in the same day or so...
All the while over land and maybe 45 mph? worse case west coast is if it comes ashore like in naples then goes out about 50 miles then turns back.
It has to be over the gulf for awhile to get back what it lost over land but i dont think the models have a good handle on it yet.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Now I don't know what to think. First I was gonna throw the chairs in the pool; Now it looks like she's moving due west??!!?? The center was re-located, but the 2pm still says a NNW motion. How can this be? Just a center re-formation deal??
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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I heard that it is not moving west, just seems so. Also i just ran the models
and all of the golbals have moved east quite a bit from yesturday and
earlier today.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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