Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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nature is so beautiful... on radar that is.... and its looking to be moving WSW attm or perhaps just south of due west.... keeps up the present motion and speed and doesn't slow down it gonna get into the GOM sooner than expected.... and that's not good...
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Andrew passed over the Everglades during a relatively dry period; it was also a very small storm, more likely to result to either favorable or negative conditions beneath the storm. Despite that, it only lost 15kt of intensity over Florida, from 130-135kt to 115-120kt. Given the moist conditions of the region right now and the larger size of as points against that and the weaker initial state of the storm as a point for it, a similar drop-off could be expected. Not saying that it is likely, and that's certainly not what is forecast right now, but anything between 35-55kt coming off-shore is not out of the realm of possibility.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Is it me or has its forward motion sped up. Looks to be moving faster now. Anyone else see this?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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oh how I remembered the models all over the place last year with prior to passing over Cuba.... it was like a tennis match... this could be very similar.... might be another 24 hours or so before the models get consistent from run to run, of which some have not.... then again maybe they won't ... who knows....
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, isn't that amazing?? Has come all the way inland? On the Miami radar it looks like she has; on this one, it's hard to tell. I can't tell if that black area is the center or what.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK so now I'm reading speed increasing and movement more due W.
Still seeing convection migrating to the S portion of the storm.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Thu Aug 25 2005 08:58 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Quote:
I can't tell if that black area is the center or what.
use the wv loop and then click the "radar" box and you'll see exactly where the coc is...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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AudreyE
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
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I've been lurking here since last season - just another completely unknowledgable FL resident who uses these discussions to keep on top of potential threats - and, I apologize if this is not the correct forum for posting this, but I am hoping someone can give me the most likely scenario for the Orlando area from Sunday morning through Monday night. I live in Ocala, and I'm scheduled to attend a convention there on Sunday and Monday.
Thank you,
Audrey
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looks like the eyewall is fully ashore but most of the convection may not even touch land if you go by the satelitte images.
Since I'm not a Pro-Met, I'll put it this way... It looks like it's moving pretty fast across land and will still have plenty of "twist an shout" left when it gets back over hot water.
That's about as plain language as it gets, Skeet.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 25 2005 09:04 PM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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It's already 23 miles inland and on its present track has only 48 miles to traverse to get to the GOM... still looks just south of due west to me....
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Audrey, depending upon how far off-shore goes, occasional thunderstorms & rain showers in bands trailing to the east of the storm could be possible in the Orlando area through Sunday night and early Monday morning. There's still some uncertainty in that forecast, however.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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on its present speed I estimate that she could enter the GOM anytime between 1 and 2 am this morning...
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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The 9:00 is out and they say it is still moving at 6. Still moving a little south of west. Sure looked like it was moving faster. Shows what i know lol
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Thanks, Phil! Am I nuts (don't answer that) or has it moved SW?
Oh..wait....CNN just said the COC HAS been moving to the SW. hmmmmmmm. I wonder what THAT will do to the forecast track.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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nl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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worst case scenario could this pull a sharp turn right ne? and do a ? 
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I knew that Stacy Stewart wrote the latest discussion without looking at the signature. Very detailed.
Here's a part of the discussion...relevant to the movement Frank is tracking.
...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO . THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.
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AudreyE
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 2
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Quote:
Audrey, depending upon how far off-shore goes, occasional thunderstorms & rain showers in bands trailing to the east of the storm could be possible in the Orlando area through Sunday night and early Monday morning. There's still some uncertainty in that forecast, however.
Thank you, very much, Clark. At this point, is it most likely that it will be safe to make the trip, or should I be thinking carefully about cancelling?
Audrey
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I can't discern a true SW motion Colleen, more like WSW maybe, or perhaps just south of due west...
use the radar loop and zoom in.... you be the judge and can you really trust CNN... hehe
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Looks to be following the first plot of the UKMET:
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I would say it is moving about 230 degrees right now. The does not look so dumb now, does it?
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