Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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HF, maybe you should have stuck to your original forecast...
Colleen, we both know that these models will CHANGE again, especially with such a slow moving system.... heck, I can sneeze really hard in my front yard and its going to make some model change it track... now if they keep showing the same location run after run, then I'll get worried.... have not even issued a pucker pressure watch yet... all that could change however... regardless I could handle a 3... but a 4... me thinks not
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I think they are trying to be conservative with the changes. Just because the models this run shifted left, doesn't mean they won't shift right next run. I think initial motion has a lot to do with the westward slant. As soon as it starts going west and then northwest, I think the models with shift back east...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Colleen A.
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Yowser! I couldn't pull up the Key West radar, so I pulled up Tampa Bay...and realized that we're about to get pounded here in Polk County! Guess I should pay more attention to what's ACTUALLY going on instead of what MIGHT happen.
Still...Key West radar isn't showing that much more movement.
HF...what does this do to the track? I wish hurricane season was over already. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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The usually can peg these things...they do well with all of them. However, the steering currents on this are weak..as evidenced by the slow speed. I think is still moving west....the normal rotation of the earth will cause it to do that when there are no external influences....
Living on a boat in Mobile...and starting to wonder. Our whole office is buzzing....we've been watching this all day......
IF this were to strike New Orleans, it would be one of the greatest natural disasters in the history of the U.S...
especially if it gets to 4 or 5 status....just throwing things out there.....don't mean to be an alarmist....
hmm....
I have a feeling the track will adjust more...I would say anyone from Texas to Tampa better watch ....
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT42.KNHC
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moose47
Registered User
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Long time lurker here....I was just wondering when the last time a hurricane made landfall in the U.S. twice and it was stronger at the second landfall than the first. Seems like that is unusual but unfortunately highly probable here. In the process of writing this I thought of Hurricane Erin and sure enough it was a little stronger at second landfall but not by very much.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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think is about to show her eye soon....noticed in last few frames a dark shaded area is staring to show up.... close-up
also the is expanding on her too.....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Colleen A.
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LOL, Frank...the sneezing thing.  However, the models HAVE been trending towards the west more and more. So wouldn't that be indicative of a landfall further west?
Although you're right....you just never know what the heck a storm is going to do.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I have a historical question too... how frequently do storms travel south in the GOM? 's motion across Florida and since seems really strange behavior for a system to follow...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as !
Only if the direct hit is way over past the east side of the bay, around Orange Beach.
Remember the damage swath from the highest winds is very narrow. That is why forecasting the path of a Cat 4 (and let's not go assuming anything yet) is so critical.
If a Cat 4 were to hit on the west side of MOB Bay, then Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and downtown MOB (mainly from flooding) would be hardest hit, not Pensacola Beach.
Similar reasoning...a Biloxi hit, head on causes the most problem for back bay Biloxi residents due to flooding from offshore winds, and the highest winds to Ocean Springs, flooding in Jackson Cty. However an Ocean Springs direct hit causes devastation to all of Jackson Cty. But a hit as far west as Gulfport, Jackson Cty gets minimal wind and water damage. Anything to the east, a Mobile hit, Jackson Cty gets high winds and some flooding but not the brunt of the storm.
We're talking about differences of 20-30 miles making the difference in this type of scenario. Forecasting can't make those kinds of calls even when a storm is only 100 miles offshore, in every situation.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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One would think so Colleen, but remember , the models trended
west and west and west and then went east all the way to pcola up there
Hope this 1 doesnt do the same, although I know no one needs to get hit, someone is bound to.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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That is true the point I was tring to make earlier was that a couple of models started drifting W on the 00Z.Then the next suceeding runs more and more models started the same track.If AT the 00Z tonight we are still seeing the same results w/time dwindling away this maybe the scenario from NO to Pensacola.Time is starting to run out unless the girl just decides to stall all together.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Yes, I noticed a nice pocket of dry air this more morning on water vapor loops. That usually helps convection get going, and increases the possibility of severe thunderstorms. With all those boundaires assoicated with the storm running rampant I would suggest you watch the radar very carefully. :}
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Des Moines, IA
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Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as !
I'm not too sure about that, spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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That is all true Margie and it 's going to be along weekend for the GOMERS.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Not sure but of course it would be dependent on the track and many other factors, but unusal naw I think it's just a pattern. For some reason the penn state reanalysis site, nor the NCAR work on my computer.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Eek....don't say the word STALL! 
Well..the good news is that it's Friday and landfall --- wherever it may be -- isn't expected until Monday. Hopefully, this will give people in it's path enough time to prepare for whatever comes their way.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Here is a satellite derived wind pic:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html
Here is what it looked like 24 hours ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8wvir-8.html
Notice how the big ridge over the southern plains has shifted west a bit, and is not as quite well-rounded.
This shows the low level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vis.html
This shows the lack of wind shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
It is awesome to get these types of pictures from the internet.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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NHC discussion 14 - 30.0N 88.5W just shy of landfall 115kt - that's a direct hit Cat 4 on Pascagoula. Holey buckets, that gave me a bad rush. I'm trying to maintain my objectivity.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 09:18 PM)
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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This'll probably change often up until landfall. Until it finally makes it move, and turns, it will be difficult to tell.
Many years ago, discussions ended with something to the effect of "forecast errors may exceed several hundred miles", and that was when they only did 3 day forecasts. There has been tremendous improvement, as 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as those old 3 day forecasts, but I think this track is still written in pencil, with a good sized eraser on top.
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