MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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4:30PM Update
Model guidance has shifted dramatically to the west, we are awaiting the 5PM National Hurricane Center discussion and forecast to see what the meaning is.
Expect the unexpected.
Noon Update
Katrina is now a Category 2 hurricane... more to come later.
11 AM Update
Katrina has strengthened a bit more, and the pressure has dropped in the advisory to 981. However, a recon report that come shortly after the public advisory reported the pressure at 971 mb. Which indicates that may well be on it's way to category 2 status.
In fact, a special advisory may be issued shortly by the shortly to increase the maximum sustained winds to 80kt/92mph, with a corresponding and rather dramatic pressure drop to 971mb.
I am a bit reluctant to mention more because of what occurred with earlier this year. When toward the end it did weaken as much as it gained strength. has the potential to become a major hurricane, and in fact is now forecast to by the time it nears the coast, and if the recon report is accurate, it may become a major much sooner than that. I'll be looking for situations (like dry air, shear, etc) that could cause to weaken.
But do not let your guard down in the Panhandle for because of what occurred with !
Model consensus is fairly solid now with the future track, the cone of error still should be watched.
The 11am forecast track is largely unchanged from the 5am track, towards the general vicinity of the Ft. Walton-Panama City area, but the intensity forecast will have to be moved upward from the 100-105kt projected in the 11a package at landfall. Stay tuned -- is getting better organized in a rapid fashion as it drifts north of the Keys.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
9 AM Update
is back up to Hurricane Status this morning and is moving slowly west. The turn to the north, most likely along the forecast track, should happen sometime today. Everyone in the cone needs to be watching this system, especially in the Panhandle. (As much as I hate to say that again)
The north side of the storm is farily dry, whereas the southern side of this storm has most of the percipitation this morning. So that's good news for keeping flooding rains away from the Peninsula for the most part. Unless the eastern side wraps around later today. The cloud shield of the storm is still very impressive.
More to come later.
Original Update
is a Troical Storm once again, albeit a very strong one, nearing the sparsely populated extreme southwestern coast of Florida and is expected to move out into the Gulf fairly shortly.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been Extended to include the entire Florida Keys, and the Dry Tortugas.
The storm has held together remarkably well as it moved westward, so strengthening after it enters the Gulf is fairly likely. More in the morning.
For a lot more future thinking, see Ed and Clark's blog below.
Event Related Links
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Katrina
 
Google Map plot of
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Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
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Invest 97L
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METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Actually at this point I'd say that the circulation center has crossed into the gulf (at least 50% of it)
So.... where does it go from here, and how well did the inner windfields survive? It's looking ragged, but is that a function of being forced south when it wanted to push north? (the high pressure pressing down.... and when it starts to 'round the bend' how quickly can it rebuild....
I feel like quoting star wars at this point, so I'm going to stop. but ... "I got a .... feeling about this"
Edit:
By ragged, I mean that the northern portion of the storm has looked 'eroded' the last 12 hours or so. the center is still holding together fairly well, and I wouldn't be suprised to see it upgraded by 11am (maybe even sooner if the storms fire up in the eyewall....
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Fri Aug 26 2005 01:39 AM)
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
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Is it me or did this thing gain some speed?
I havent really studied it all that much, but some forecasters didnt have it re-entering the gulf until Friday afternoon and hitting the panhandle sunday sometime.. Looks like it could hit again on saturday.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Though is moving off shore at this time. The probability of torrential rain, and winds above 45 mph still exist.
Katrina is likely to deepen again. Possibly to a Hurricane by daybreak. (my opinion)
In looking over the Local Storm Reports from NWS Miami:
0553 PM*** 1 FATAL *** 20-25 YEAR OLD MAN KILLED WHEN TREE BRANCHES WERE BLOWN DOWN.
0600 PM*** 1 FATAL *** 54 YEAR OLD MALE PEDESTRIAN KILLED WHEN TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.
I know that there is at least one other fatality reported. But I'm not seeing any references here.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
So.... where does it go from here
Well nothing much is going to be coming over on the N side over land, so initially the bands will be mostly on the S and SE, once offshore, but then I guess the strong circ will carry the bands around quickly once far enough away from land, and convection will build because it will be daytime. So actually by very early morning should be back in business.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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There was also a guy who got caught in his car and power lines got him before they could cut the power,very sad.Those 00 runs taking there time to come guess ill go to bed but i agree this will get to cat 1 and maybe 2 i just really hope it gets out in the gulf far.I dont wish it on anyone and hope it falls apart (doubt) i really want out of the cone so keep going west is good for me.
Best bet would be to go right along to mexico.But i hope when it leaves the west coast of florida its the last time we see it on this coast.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 700 AM EDT
* AT 1240 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO TRACK REPEATEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA INDICATE THAT AS MUCH AS 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO HOMESTEAD THIS EVENING . AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA BY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
A FEW OF THE LOCATIONS AT GREATEST RISK FOR CONTINUED FLOODING ARE... KEY BISCAYNE...PERRINE...COUNTRY WALK...CUTLER RIDGE...PRINCETON... NARANJA...HOMESTEAD...FLORIDA CITY...AND THE REDLANDS.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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If it continues SW at this speed, Key West is going to get hammered by the strong S and SE bands near the COC, in about 3 hours (5am EDT).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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That list reads like the hit list of places devestated almost 13 years to the date by Hurricane Andrew. The heaviest rain remains over that area at this time and I wouldn't be surprised if those additional 6" are underdoing it just a little.
Over the past half-hour to hour, the center of appears to have essentially slowed down quite a bit *just* offshore. It is still drifting southward, but at more like 2-4mph and not moving SW at 10mph. I think this might be the start of that slowing trend and will need to be monitored overnight to see if that is indeed the case. The storm is undergoing a bit of reorganization -- some dry air worked into the center of the storm while it was over land and is giving the appearance of a center being further offshore than it really is -- but should reach hurricane intensity once again in the next 6-9hr.
My 2:30am position estimate on the storm is just south of the tip of Ponce de Leon Bay (for reference, please see http://sofia.usgs.gov/geer/2003/posters/wq_bicyever/sulfatemapx.gif) drifting SSW at 2-3mph. This general motion with a turn towards the west is expected through the morning hours. This will keep the center near-shore through the overnight hours and bring it to a position SW of Naples and Everglades City later in the morning.
Now that the center is over the Gulf, it's "go" time. What happens over the next day is going to go a long way toward determining where this storm makes landfall and at what intensity it makes landfall. Good night everyone, and get some rest. This is just the middle of the first round of -- we've still got a long way to go with this one.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
That list reads like the hit list of places devestated almost 13 years to the date by Hurricane Andrew. The heaviest rain remains over that area at this time and I wouldn't be surprised if those additional 6" are underdoing it just a little...
A note on the side here. My last check of 'Storm Total" rainfall from both the Key West and Miami radar. A bit of conflict there.
One showed a maxima of 21.8 inches and the other 14 inches. Too much rainfall, no matter how you look at it.
One other thought.
The rainfall will make the tress blow over Very Easy now. If spins up to Hurricane force again there could be more trees falling in areas that they haven't fallen.
Please exercise extreme caution in areas with trees and high winds. What might have required 45mph yesterday, may blow over in a 35mph wind today.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The 3am increased the speed to 11mph...but changed direction to WSW.
So still very close to Key West.
Definitely going to sleep now!
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Four Dead As Slams South Florida
http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4887334/detail.html
not buying a franklin couty landfall just yet....more to west.....panama city maybe...strong cat 2?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Katrina's stint as a Tropical Storm was a brief one, They have her max sustained winds at 65Kts and 987Mb pressure. They're also putting her on a 260 degree track, which eyeballing the radar makes sense.... how how rapidly will the storm turn and round the ridge? There is the question that could be the difference between a stiff wind and a week without power.
My reasoning is shot on this storm, so I'll simply bow out and go to bed...(I really have to average more than 3 hours sleep a night....)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I may be imagining this, but I think I see a northerly vector component in the very last frame of the Key West radar - http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
It could be a wobble.
I thought I was imagining the southerly componenent yesterday when all said it was going due west.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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Am seeing the same wobble to the north
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Thought I would chime in since I did not stay up all night. (Check in at 2 amish to see what the status was), just to keep the post rolling.
All the globals are in almost unanimous agreement this morning showing a movement WNW then NW with a bend North and impact just east of Ft Walton Beach.
It appears that has outrun the deepening trough a bit and might get further west, likely sparing danger to the West Coast of FL. south of the Big Bend. Anyone west of the Big Bend better keep an eye for sudden changes, as we know the tropics can do that.
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Jara
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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We're talking about rain...take a look at these rain totals - WOW:
http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/AMX/AMX.PRETX.gif
(source: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX - thanks danielw for posting this in the old thread last night  )
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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Well it appears most of the models are pretty much in agreement at this point. Looks like right now the bullseye is between Ft. Walton and Panama City. Even with that slight shift west, I'm sure I am still in for a VERY rough ride here in Tallahassee. 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I don't see the N component at all, still wsw or even sw perhaps, there was and is some open areas with no convection (dry areas) to the north of the eye with could have caused the appearance of a north jog, but I don't see in on this radar loop... speed still looks at about 10 mph
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like the models think they have a good handle on the system now. We'll know in a few hours. It may be just a wobble or a reorganization, but the last couple of sat frames show a much more northernly component. I think it'll be until this afternoon before we have a solid idea of where she is going.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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