Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I really hate it when the shifts the track that drastically because then it makes it harder to know for sure if it's correct.
I don't agree with the logic that change equates to increased error. Review Hank's posts in the previous thread. There was discussion of why the track changed.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Well said Miami, with all the uncertainty with this storm, I personally would put my hurricane prep plans in action. The cone of error is there and it is for a reason. Anyone in the cone should take this storm seriously
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well with the forecast models gradually coming into better agreement it certainly has more weight to the forecast. I dont think we will see a second landfall in Florida from . I do think we will see her landfall near or to the west of the current forecast track. I dont see any eastward shift likely.
Echoes my thoughts.
The forecast position puts it due S of Pascagoula 20 mi out, which normally would mean a MOB Bay hit with the typical NNE movement towards the last 30 mi N. However the reason for my concern is that the track could move more W, but not E...all it has to do is to move 15-20mi W and goodnight Jackson Cty.
However I need to take my own advice and chill. We like the roller coaster, right? I'll just stay on until Sunday night and we'll see how the cookie crumbles.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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FloydRTurbo
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 19
Loc: Des Moines, IA
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I posted this right before this thread started...
Pcola said:
Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as !
I'm not too sure about that, spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
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Ryan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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from the track and recent met reports on the news here on LI i think its safe to say that anyone from South Padre Island, TX to Apalachicola, FL should watch but poeple from Grand Isle, LA to Billoxi, MS to Mobile,AL to Pensacola and Panama City, FL should reallyy watch and prepare earlier, than later. And if you prepare later by force, better late then never. could be extremely dangerous by sun-mon. so Take No Chances.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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eyewall is expanding....hurricane will be a cat 3 before too long....I think....this one is growing in size as well as intensity...and why not?...
it's August and Gulf of Mexico....
Key West Radar loop will verify what I am seeing.....the strong banding, strong core....is now 180 degrees intact...when it wraps...oh boy...
is there any meteorological chance this hurricane could die out?
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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NW side of starting to fill in. Emergency personnel in Mobile/New Orleans seem to be very concerned about this storm.
Sure hope it makes landfall in an unpopulated area.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Has anyone noticed the really quite frightening thing with the current forecast track and intensity? If it plays out as currently forecast then will make landfall just to the west of Mobile bay. This means that Mobile Bay would be in the northeast quadrant of a landfalling major Hurricane piling up water from the ocean into the narrowing bay.
Of course. This has been common knowledge and a topic of discussion every hurricane season, for simply forever, for MOB residents.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Quote:
I posted this right before this thread started...
Pcola said:
Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as !
I'm not too sure about that, spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
It's more dependent on the speed of the storm, although exposure time does have an effect. The larger waves get, the faster they go, and so will eventually outrun the hurricane. Because of this, there's a maximum sea development for a given storm speed and windspeed. Size also has to do with it, of course.
The worst shape you could be in would be a hurricane approaching you on a linear path and accelerating. The acceleration would allow waves to get "caught" under the storm, leading to a phenomenon called "fetch-trapping".
All of this, of couse, affects both surge and wave height, as they are related.
But I'm a high school student, not an expert 
Edited by Convergence (Fri Aug 26 2005 06:13 PM)
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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What a storm? I was thinking today (a rare event) that we have the most sophisticated models, brainpower, satelittes, radar, MET obs, and the still missed the SW turn once KAT came onshore. Now, we've seen this dramatic swing in the models to the west which I must say climatology would suggest. But, the steering currents are weak. I just remember back to 1985 with Hurricane Elena, for those of us old enough to remember. The predicted path was P'Cola or Mobile, kinda foggy now, but then she stalled, turned east to about 60 miles off Cedar Key, stalled again, and then pushed off W-NW to LA. Right now, I think its wait and see for probably the next 24-48 hrs. I put the entire Gulf Coast east of TX under a watching mode. A weakening ridge and advancing trough introduce a good amount of uncertainty to the forecast. The storm seems to have slowed the last 2 hours or so with even a hint at a NW jog. So, lets see what it does.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
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RJB
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
NW side of starting to fill in.
Not quite there yet.
Also, while moisture is wrapping around a little more to the NE, probably because she's moved a little W and has more water to draw on from the E, the dry air has started to erode not only the western side but has made inroads into the SW as well; you can see this on wv imagry. But no question that she is still holding her own.
I think everyone is in overwhelming agreement that once she has more favorable conditions, she'll get going like the Eveready bunny. The PA 14 said expecting Cat 3 today, but it looks like it may take a little longer. However certainly by tomorrow.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Aug 26 2005 06:22 PM)
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
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It really is too early to dwell on individual models, but the 18Z is scary. It takes west to west northwest to a point right on top of the high heat content pool south of Lousiana, then turns it right and accelerates the storm northward to near or just west of New Orleans... and the whole time it keeps an upper level high centered over the storm with little or no shear. The really must think will get darn strong because it has the pressure below 980 mb for the last day and a half leading up to landfall and you rarely see the go that low for tropical cyclones.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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18Z thru 60 hours also has a monster storm approaching the SE coast of LA... I'm wondering if this trend to the west is going to continue to move even farther west .... next 24 hours of model runs will be gut wrenching to say the least... don't like the clustering of them... nor consistancy from run to run like the last two ..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MM5_18z/mm560.html
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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For those of you who want the ability to track the distance of from the weather radars. Look towards the bottom of the radar image.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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LI Phil sent me a PM last night saying something how he was worried about about a Cat 3/4 approaching south of Biloxi.... I just dismissed it as Yankee madness.... boy was he clairvoyant relative to what has been forecasted today because NO ONE (except HF, who forecast the MS/AL several days ago, then backed out... hehe) said anything about this impacting the MS coast area...... Phil tell me is ain't so again tonight .... I'm not by any means convinced its going to hit the MS coast... not yet.... time will tell....
Gov of La has declared a state of emergency due to impending severe weather... just heard on NO news
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Can anyone comment on the last couple frames of this WV loop. It appears the strongest returns shifted significantly East against the general motion of the storm.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The storm dosent seem to be moving at all from what i see in radar. May be it the begginig of a different track
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Hello Storm Troopers. I have been having this nagging question all day about the possibility of the Yo Yo on a string effect of this storm running out to the far end of the southwestern jaunt and then acclererating back the way it came after leaving tip of Florida only going back through unturned waters and atmosphere. I know that this may sound like a crazy question, but it really bothers me to see that the steering aloft is not more definite, and the very impetus that sent the storm south could suction it up in the same direction due to the pathway being cleared so to speak. If I get a huh????? on this question just consider it a question from a very amateur observer. thanks
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Quote:
Sitting in dowtown Mobile a couple hundred yards from the water, I know storm to our west is bad news. Even Georges flooded us pretty good. There is simply no where for the water to go as it moves up Mobile Bay.
I think Georges was the worst flooding from a hurricane that Mobile ever had !! If I remember correctly, wasn't it 30 inches ?? I still remember the TV shot of the "Water Street" sign downtown and it literally was !! I'm in west Mobile with a stubborn hubby who won't even consider leaving.  We'll just board up and stock up on water and vienna sausages like we always do. So far from what I've seen, people here haven't even started preps. No lines at the gas stations, no run on the grocery/hardware stores, and no windows boarded.  I guess they will all wait until the last minute. It didn't help that the governor ordered all of Mobile county evacuated last time a hurricane was headed our way and it turned out to be more or less a false alarm. Better to be safe than sorry I suppose.
Hope you're moving your boat Rick !!!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Is this storm even moving?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml
Also, while it seems like it is ingesting dry air, you can see two new feeder bands forming to the north and west, one arcing over northern florida and the other arcing out toward Louisiana.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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