StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Yeah, I keep looking at satellite instead of radar. I keep forgetting we are still within radar range.
--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek
Edited by StormHound (Fri Aug 26 2005 11:43 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
The problem with radar is that you only see two hours (or so) worth of images. That's hardly enough to denote a trend. Hurricanes wobble, and those wobbles can be shown more easily on radar.
Having said that... regarding the "weakness", Mark - I think you may be right. It looks like COULD slip in between the "western feeder" and the "eastern feeder" if you will (as seen on the water vaper loop)... and into the Greater New Orleans area. Not a good thing.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Its still going due west... there is a convection free area north of the center which might create that illusion for some... but on this loop attm its due west... zoom in and just watch... this thing is heading for someone within the next three days...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
NHS still says its going WSW. I'm seeing that on the current radar, too - although this is the first time today I've seen any southward movement on the radar.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Most of the movements are based on an average over a period of time. Something like 3 to 6 hours.
That's what messed up the landfall last year. The storm had turned to the NE, but the average had it still moving NNW. Or something like that.
Your eyes generally don't lie to you...unless you've been looking at for more than 12 hours! 
|
Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
|
|
Last couple frames of the radar are a little more south than I'd like... but, we'd better enjoy this radar while it lasts.
A gradual turn to the west is expected on Saturday... I don't like the sound of that. The slower the turn, the more west the storm ends up.
(No implications regarding the speed of forward motion here... only direction.)
--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill
Edited by Terra (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:11 AM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
I've been looking at most of the last two days, so my eyes must be seeing things! 
You've got a good point, though - bases movement on longer-term trends generally. I do think N.O. could be in hot water with , though (pun intended).
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 125
|
|
Yeah, if you track it over a period of time (I've been plotting it on graph paper) you'll see that its moving somewhat south of west - I don't know if I'd go so far as WSW, but that's more accurate than due west, so there you have it.
Big question is when does she start to turn. says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
I disagree - or see it differently. The longer the storm sits there and doesn't go anywhere fast, the more likely a trough is to come along and zoom it NE, it would seem to me anyway.
Quote:
A gradual turn to the west is expected on Saturday... I don't like the sound of that. The slower the turn, the more west the storm ends up.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
Big question is when does she start to turn. says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 125
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Big question is when does she start to turn. says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
I'm going off the 's guidance which puts the storm basically into Pascagoula - which nails Mobile, puts Pensacola under the gun (again) in terms of severe surge trouble and leaves Ft. Walton/Destin in a zone where they get significant surge trouble but probably avoid anything worse than sustained 50kt winds.
Of course if it goes further west then shift all that. Inland the rain problems will be ugly - we've had a lot of rain in this area this spring and summer, and as a result I'd expect quite a bit of inland flooding as the storm rains itself out.
|
MissouriHurricane2008
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 14
Loc: Missouri, USA
|
|
SInce the 8 PM update the track does seem more west ward then first predicted. If it continues even more west New Orleans is going to have major problems. The Panhandle does not need anymore hurricanes. We live have to see what mother nature has instore. Just be prepared.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
I'm going off the 's guidance which puts the storm basically into Pascagoula - which nails Mobile, puts Pensacola under the gun (again) in terms of severe surge trouble and leaves Ft. Walton/Destin in a zone where they get significant surge trouble but probably avoid anything worse than sustained 50kt winds.
Of course if it goes further west then shift all that. Inland the rain problems will be ugly - we've had a lot of rain in this area this spring and summer, and as a result I'd expect quite a bit of inland flooding as the storm rains itself out.
That's assuming it ever moves anywhere. Right now it's just nudging AWAY from the U.S. (south). I'm still not convinced it's not going to pull an Opal, though.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
New BAMM model is showing even further west - beyond New Orleans. This thing COULD end up hitting Brownsville at this rate!
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
actually a large majority of the models are now west of the 5PM forecast track... look for another shift to the west... I would not be surprised if its as far west as the LA/MS line... 24 hours ago who would have thought this would occur... this may very well end up a NO problem... that's unbelievable... that would be really bad for the MS coast... this storm is not behaving like and Emily.... forecasters are earning their money for sure... wonder what Bob Breck (NO met) is say now after telling his viewers early in the weak that was going up the east coast, and would NOT get in the GOM and would NOT be a NO problem.... maybe it will just keep going west to TX..... who knows.....
Edited by Frank P (Sat Aug 27 2005 12:30 AM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
The only thing that would shock me out of was if it went where the said it was going to go when they said it was going to go there.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
jr928
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 101
|
|
nhc usually nails these things within 20 miles. This far out is not uncommon or unfair to make the changes. It's 24 hrs out that becomes bad to me, but that's rare for
|
MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 296
|
|
Looks like convection has wrapped around the NW side. It may not look impressive, but due to the distance from the radar and the fact it has to penetrate the stronger eastern eyewall, the radar may not be doing it justice.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
I think because the did such a decent job with and Emily we sorta expected it for every storm.... well is proving we're not as smart as we think we might be.... there will be a lot of anxious people throughout the gulf coast states for the next two to three days....
|
ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 435
|
|
when a storm is moving fast i think they get a better handle on it.And if they went with the gdfl from the start they would have had it pegged up to now.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
