Cpt.Napalm
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 6
Loc: Eglin AFB, FL
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Has the mentioned why they are leaning to the west of the models on their last 2 runs where with most of their previous tracks they have leaned to the East of the model consensus?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Is it just me or do I see a WNW motion starting?
Yep, the much anticipated shift to the W-NW looks to have occurred during the last 2-3 hours. On VIS SAT, the eye has clouded over but there is definitely a shift in direction. We'll see if it holds. If so, from here on out, the storm should gradually start recurving to the NW and then N over the next 48 hrs.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
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RJB
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
2) Am I crazy, or does it seem like there are two eye walls forming?
No, I'm seeing it too. That means it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle - once that finishes it can strengthen again. That would also explain the rattier appearence on satellite.
Key West radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Ragged isn't a term I'd use with ...if anything she's getting better organized & strengthing which when in that cycle can give appearance of looking ragged.
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Based on the last 3 hrs of long range radar data from Key West I'm seeing motion at 290
if it's not the turn, it's quite a wobble
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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11 Advisory still 115 MPH moving west slower know at 6MPH. I think this system is about to start it turn real soon
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Based on the last 3 hrs of long range radar data from Key West I'm seeing motion at 290
if it's not the turn, it's quite a wobble
Looking at the VIS loop... it's definately north of the 5am ET forecast track. Not by a whole lot, but the line is north of due west and it's long enough to be more than just a wobble - although it still might smooth out to be due west longer term. I'd call it 280-290 maybe.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
11 Advisory still 115 MPH moving west slower know at 6MPH. I think this system is about to start it turn real soon
NHC is smoothing out the motion I think. No, it CAN'T turn NOW... it must wait at least six hours! Turning now means it hits well east of the forecast track IMHO.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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It has also slow down the past couple of hours this could let the trough come by and pick it up even sooner then expected what do u guys think
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MadDog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 51
Loc: DeBary, Florida
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I'm not sure it changes anything due to its forward speed. At this rate it will take awhile to make an actual change in direction.
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Has the mentioned why they are leaning to the west of the models on their last 2 runs where with most of their previous tracks they have leaned to the East of the model consensus?
Expect it to change in the future. We saw a 150 mi west adjustment yesterday. With the storm 60 hrs away from landfall, there will be smaller shifts with time. The likes to avoid major changes (like yesterday), so if they see a consistent trend with consensus in the models they will gradually move in that direction.
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RJB
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
It has also slow down the past couple of hours this could let the trough come by and pick it up even sooner then expected what do u guys think
I DON'T want to think about that possibility, although it might be the only thing that saves N.O.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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it will be interesting to see if the models start shifting east in their next runs. i think it is turning a little earlier than expected
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Guess what? Navy 's taken their normal track graphic off and stuck up a model track graphic!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
It appears that they discovered their 'error'. I saw the graphics you described and upn a refresh, it was back to the 'old' format. I can't find it again even browsing their directory structure, but it *was* interesting. All of their models depicted seemed to cluseter in and about SE La.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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As for model tracks, see the attached file.
NRL put back up their normal track graphic, but luckily I screenshotted the model track graphic while it was up. That's what I'm attaching.
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susieq
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am no guy but I went and looked at the surface analysis on the Atlantic Tropical Discussion page and there are a couple of distinct highs(higher than the pressure in the hurricane) one over Texas and one over Alabama /Tennesee AND unless I am missing a few marbles(very likely), the hurricane will still follow the path of least resistance. This being said could still have the hurricane following the warmest water for fuel and into the big bend area. The trough picking up the hurricane would speed things along. This is not to be confused with a meterologist who does know what is going on.
I am really considering a trip to walmart to get a simple compass to be able to visualize the angle of motion on this storm. Either way it is fascinating. Just so long as is fizzles before hitting land. By the way here in Central Florida we are having some elevated breezes from the southeast
Edited by GuppieGrouper (Sat Aug 27 2005 11:07 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.
I agree regarding N.O., but I disagree about Pensacola. No one is out of the woods yet. The models drifted back east toward Biloxi/Mobile and that was not reflected in the forecast - if it continues they'll update the official forecast at 4pm probably, and put Pensacola back in trouble.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.
I agree regarding N.O., but I disagree about Pensacola. No one is out of the woods yet. The models drifted back east toward Biloxi/Mobile and that was not reflected in the forecast - if it continues they'll update the official forecast at 4pm probably, and put Pensacola back in trouble.
Update: Visible satellite - 14:15 image shows a tightly packed eye barely visible. Comparing that with the beginning of the loop, the next motion is definately north of due west. It's SLOWLY turning...
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.
Katrina is too large and too dangerous to say at this point in time that P'cola is out of the woods.
No one along the coast from LA around Panama city should let their guard down.
Perhaps in 36 hours from now we will know more but right now, things are still too fluid.
NHC and New Orleans have to take action to evacuate do to the logistics of moving that many people out
of harms way.
Stay alert and be prepared.
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