Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Well, looking at the 615Z and 645Z images...a couple of observations.
The whiteness of the clouds around the core shows how intense the storm has become (the cold cloud tops). The convection is symmetrical and deep and covers the entire core.
The large eye will have some ability to contract and I may be wrong about this but doesn't that lower the pressure and will result in increase in windspeed.
Because the storm is larger the radius of powerful winds will be larger.
Now the storm, yes, looks as good as Emily did the day she skirted the south coast of Cuba (it is considerably larger as well)
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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BTfromAZ
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Here's a link for coastal buoys off south Louisiana: http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Yeah that's kind of what got me thinking to post those two sat pics earlier. Same position almost on the nose, same windspeed almost on the nose (for all we know now could be up to 150mph right now). Definitely very deja vu.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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Regarding links to buoys:
There's only the one (42001-- and that is not going to be that close to the storm), because 42041 is no longer in service.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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LisaMaria. On the predicted course you will get rain and wind. I'm not sure on the amount of rain or the wind speeds.
You are roughly I-10 exit 100. So you should be about 140 miles east of the I10/ I12 split.
Here's 2 links for your local weather.
Slidell NWS.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/
Lake Charles NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/
Southern Region NWS (point and click map)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/
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heynow
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Loc: Abbeville, LA
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No where to go other than the Superdome. How scary.
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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mojorox
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Loc: Orlando
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I was listening to the station on the previous link and they stated that the superdome would only be used for those with medical needs and they were going to be triaging.....
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Margie. I just noticed why there is so much similarity in the Camille/ photos.
The Camille photo was taken on 8/16/1969 at 1710Z or 1210 PM CDT.
At that time Camille was at: 24.5N/ 86.0W 115mph
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
Katrina, yesterday 2 PM CDT, was at : 24.5N/ 85.4W 115mph
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/color/0508280740.jpg
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:08 AM)
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WeatherNut
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The large eye looks very much like Isabel of 2003 season when it was probably a Cat 5. I attached a picture
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:03 AM)
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Bloodstar
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As pointed out in the chat room (not many people there now, but it's something to keep in mind when things get hopping tomorrow, check it out, there are people there, and they're all live and in real time!) the eye is still elliptical, and large... how much worse can it get if the eye gets circular and shrinks down to size.... any idea on how the wind speed increases as the eye diameter shrinks?
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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WeatherNut
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I might be wrong, but a large eye like that is usually associated w/ very intense hurricanes. You dont see it in the atlantic basin very often...more often in Typhoons
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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That is something.
I don't know what to say anymore now that the other shoe has finally dropped. My goosebumps have goosebumps.
Except, maybe: I just noted that the storm is about to hit another forecast point right on the money again.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I think you're right nut. I saw a thread elsewhere on annular hurricanes which are a special breed. I didn't have much time to read the details with all that was going on so if this is off, sorry.
Steve
I don't have a problem with it. But You should be packing...My thoughts.
One of your Northshore neighbors has evacuated since the last Advisory.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:25 AM)
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Steve
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Here's an excerpt:
The hardest thing to explain is when hurricanes become Annular.Very few hurricanes can reach this as Atmospheric condtions need to be nearly perfect,a good idea to see wether this is the case is wether the outflow is impressive right the way around the hurricane,which was infact the case in Isabel.Annular hurricanes are rare,however they tend to be very powerful in nature and the strongest hurricanes tend to be Annular in nature.Because of how hard it is to attain its very rare that a hurricane can become annular for more then 12hrs simply because the need for perfect enviormental condtions.
http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Steve what in the sam hill are you doing?
Why aren't you sleeping so that you can be behind the wheel in a couple of hours? Come to think of it, why aren't you behind the wheel right now while traffic is light? You know, I knit while driving, and I'll be real happy if you tell me that you're driving out of town right now with a laptop on your lap and a wireless connection to your cell phone on the other seat.
You aren't like that guy in The Perfect Storm that just has to bring that boat load of fish home are ya?
Look how well this thing has been tracking to all the forecast points. You can't want to be there when comes to town?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A
MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR
MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM SURGE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS.
ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. A
STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY.
THESE TIDE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION
ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. ALSO...A
STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE. MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ALONG
NAVARRE BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KMOB.shtml
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Bloodstar
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http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us//roger_pielke//camille/report.html
Camille (I hate even comparing this storm to it, but...) had an eye diameter of 12 miles at landfall. I'm sure there are plenty of contra examples, but it was something I remember as being noted about it.... You could be right though, I'm sure the mets will chime in, (or move the post someplace out of the way of everyone trying to keep caught up on the storm 
-Mark
I had forgotten about his site. Excellant site. And I hate to use the Camille comparison also.
It's just so uncommon, rare to have the stats this close together. Downright scary too!~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:35 AM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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LOL...I was just reading that and was going to post it...but more seriously, are you convinced now you gotta get out!!!
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I might be wrong, but a large eye like that is usually associated w/ very intense hurricanes. You dont see it in the atlantic basin very often...more often in Typhoons
Starting with about the 2am sat images, it looks very much like a Cat 5. Awaiting the 4am advis and discussion and the next recon with baited breath.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I read that whole section on annular hurricanes...funny how I picked Isabel as a look alike storm. It was an annular hurricane as well and is the one they use as an example.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 28 2005 08:50 AM)
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