MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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3:AM EDT (2AM CDT) Update
Satellite shows a weakness in the western part of the storm, perhaps some dry air intrusion, this is good news as it gives the chance for the storm to weaken if this spot makes it to the core, at best keep it from regaining category 5 strength before the center makes landfall.
11:00 PM EDT (10PM CDT) Update
Katrina remains a Category 5 storm, the National Hurricane Center is saying that the storm may be starting to go through an eyewall replacement cycle, which may weaken the storm in the short term, but spread out the winds further. Recon recently reported that the pressure is up to 908mb, continuing the slow weakening trend from earlier today.
If it has time to finish this before landfall, it could restrengthen again. It is still a category 5 storm, the pressure is still one of the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. So this is all relative, either way it's still making its way to New Orleans as a Category 5 hurricane.
Let us hope and pray it does not have time to finish eyewall replacement before landfall.
10:30p Update
Hurricane appears to be entering an eyewall replacement cycle this evening, suggested by recon data and radar imagery and strongly implied by microwave imager data. This could result in temporary fluctuations in intensity over the course of the next few hours with some weakening possible as it makes landfall overnight and into the early morning hours near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Conditions continue to go downhill along the coast, with a strong threat for tornadoes in the outer feeder bands extending from New Orleans to Pensacola.
A full update is forthcoming from the in the 11p package.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Central Atlantic. It is most likely going out to sea.
Hurricane is the number one concern right now as it moves toward New Orleans. The center is starting to be seen on long range radar, so let the nail biting nowcasting style tracking begin.
The official track has shifted to the left slightly, giving New Orleans a bit more concern than the last few forecasts. Indeed, the model has shifted slightly west as well. At this point exact landfall is moot. It will be devestating to wherever it crosses. The exact point of landfall matters greatly for flooding. With this track, overflow into the south shore of the lake area is very likely.
The storm is down to a pressure of 902mb, making it the fourth strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic (by Pressure) with 165MPH winds, the winds have relaxed a bit, but will likely fluctuate up and down.
More to come as time passes.
Looking to help folks in the area, check here to see and offer suggestions.
(We and are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
For discussion on TD#13 go to this link.
Repost of Clark's Blog since it is most applicable now:
What can you expect if you are in the following locations from Hurricane ?
o Southeast Louisiana, including Lake Ponchatrain and New Orleans:
This is the expected landfall region as of this time. The storm is likely to reach the shore of the state as an intense category 5 hurricane with winds anywhere from 160-185mph. Coastal flooding along the coast due to storm surge is going to be a major problem anywhere to the east of where the center of the storm makes landfall and along all sides of the shore of Lake Ponchatrain. The storm will not lose much, if any, intensity between the coast and the first 50-60mi inland due to the nature of the land.
On the projected path, category 5 strength winds will be felt in the city of New Orleans itself; this is akin to an F3 tornado over a span of 25-50 miles. Widespread destruction of a catastrophic nature is quite possible as the storm passes across the city; gusts over 200mph -- in the F4 tornado range -- could result in structural failure to many of the buildings within the city. Flooding will only exacerbate the problem as the storm passes. Many roads will be impassable for weeks, if not months, and services to many parts of the city may be out for a similar length of time.
Simply put, if you are in this area, you needed to get out a long time ago. Now is too late. It is time to head to the shelter of last resort, the Louisiana Superdome, and ride out the storm the best you can.
o Central Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and Lafayette:
You will likely be on the west side of the storm but still within the region of hurricane-force winds with this storm. Precautions should be taken to ensure that potentially hazardous objects (debris) are removed from outside and those in weak structures are evacuated to a shelter. Isolated tornadoes are possible with flooding in low-lying areas due to locally heavy rain a threat as well.
o Southern Mississippi & Alabama Coastlines, including Pascagoula, Biloxi, and Mobile:
The storm will likely pass near or just east of the mouth of the Pearl River at landfall. This places all of the coastal cities of Mississippi near the center in the right-front quadrant of the storm. Storm surge, particularly into Mobile Bay and near Pascagoula (where there are fewer obstructions from the Louisiana coastline) is going to be a major concern. Isolated tornadoes and winds to hurricane-force are likely across this region, with flooding as the storm moves inland becoming a bigger concern due to trailing feeder bands setting up to the east of the storm.
o Inland Southern & Central Mississippi, including Hattiesburg:
Similar impacts will be felt here as they will to the west, as noted in the forecast for the central Louisiana area. The threat for tornadoes and heavy rain is likely a bit higher in this area, however.
o Inland Southern & Central Alabama, including areas up to Birmingham:
Locally heavy rains, isolated tornadoes, and gusty winds are the primary threats from this storm Monday into Tuesday morning as the storm continues to move inland.
o Coastal Florida to Destin/Panama City and Apalachee Bay:
This storm is stronger but much further west than made landfall just one month ago. Despite this, high tides Sunday into Monday may bring localized coastal flooding to areas damaged by previous hurricanes. Rain of 3-6" may be realized in localized areas, though the threat for tornadoes is not quite as high as it is further to the north and west.
Remember, for those within the track uncertainty cone at this point in time, this storm has the potential to bring about catastrophic property losses, massive flooding, and the loss of life. New Orleans and all of Southeast Louisiana as well as parts of S. Mississippi are under mandatory evacuations. Do not hesitate and please, get out while you still can. This afternoon will be too late.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Flhurricane.com mirror of the Bourbon st Tropical Isle Webcam
Flhurricane.com mirror of Port of New Orleans Webcam#1
Flhurricane.com mirror of Port of New Orleans Webcam#2
New Orleans Traffic Cams
Flhurricane/Joseph Johnston Mobile Cam
Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) - KHOU is streaming WWL TV as well HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Katrina
 
Google Map plot of
Hurricane Camille and Hurricane plotted on a google map
Visible Floater Satellite of
Water Vapor Floater of
Visible Satellite Floater of with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of
Spaghetti Model Plot of from Colorado State
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile
TD#13
Animated model plots of TD#13
Invest 91L
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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I still believe she will turn more right before landfall. The now actually still has her going NNW at landfall. A track that alls between the and the UKMET seems about right to me. I hope Mobile does not let it's guard down.
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 99
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This is from the 5pm discussion...
...data from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on board the
aircraft suggest that the surface to 700 mb flight level wind ratio
is not quite as large as we typically use...and the initial
intensity is adjusted slightly to 145 kt.
Basically what they are saying is that the surface wind has not weakened, but was merely adjusted after getting more detailed info about what is going on at the surface. A small hurricane with a 902 mb pressure may have 185+ mph wind because all the energy is concentrated in a small core, but such a huge storm like has the wind field spread out so far that the inner core wind is a bit less.
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nate77
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
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TWC just said Pressure has been up to 903 mb...
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Traffic on I-10 east is bumper to bumper.... no idea why anyone would go this way, but many people are. In fact, my relatives, stuck in traffic on Hwy. 90 in Pascagoula are planning on staying in Pensacola... whatever... Anyway, at what time do you think people in their cars on the Interstate (either I-10 E or I-55/57-N) will be in danger?
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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Uh, there are no hotel rooms in Pensacola. I know - we've tried. Hope they have friends. Tell anyone you know to look in the Tallahassee area or Jax.
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Just a note to let all my friends that I've been much to busy to post.... I've finished all my preps and will still stay in Biloxi but not near the beach.... I'm 20 feet above sea level but I've put anything of value either 3 feet higher or on my second floor.... packing up my two bassets, generator and chain saw and will be heading out...
when the 5:00 advisory came out and shifted the storm .3 degrees west I was almost overcome with elation, until I realized the depth of my selfishness, that I'm wanting this beast to go to a place that will be so much more worse than if it hit me... I've accepted the fact that there is a real possibility of losing my home.. that's the price one has to pay for living on the beach... BIloxi will be devistated for sure, but IF it continues to track 55-60 miles to our west it does not make it a worse case scenario for us but for New Orleans.. any deviations back to the east will be so gut wrenching that I'm afraid to see the next forecast update... regardless, soon we will be able to track on radar and we will know exactly what will do... it is much easier for me to track and monitor a storm when I'm not directly affected or its a minor storm... but when you are facing perhaps one of the greatest storms in our history your priorities change drastically... total and complete preparation is all you think about, have I done absolutely everything possible .... well i think I have done everything possible to save my house but still I have no idea what I'll have when I get back...
I probably won't be able to post for some time after this so to all my good family friends keep up the great work and I hope your passion for storms never fades... and to all my friends in harms way this evening and tomorrow... a special good luck and god speed....
Frank P
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Hope they have a place to stay in Pensacola. Pensacola had no hotel rooms before the hurricane, let alone now.
Tallahassee is almost 100% too. Jacksonville and down to Gainseville might be where they end up; but that is another 6 hour drive.
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Jim
Edited by Rasvar (Sun Aug 28 2005 09:35 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Terra, unless they have rooms reserved they will not stay in Pensacola. Actually, we are expecting winds of 70-90mph by morning, and power outages. They may want to keep going east but let them know that the I10 bridge in Pcola is backed up and only 1 lane since . But they can go south in Pcola and catch US98 east thru Gulf Breeze, no traffic and a fast straight shot east.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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susieq
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
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By my calculations, the eye of the hurricane will hit approximately in 14 hours. Is this what you guys expect?
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Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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By the way, its time to forget the tracks, and just monitor the radar. Great presentation on N.O. radar. For those on the coast of AL and FL, this is what will tell us what to expect. They have raised the expected winds here in Pcola from 70 mph to 90mph in the morning. That is a CAT 2 and comparable to the direct hit from Erin in 95. I hope everyone has gas for their generators...Also they say they will have 100,000 in the Superdome!!!!! The Saints wish they could draw that crowd..lol
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Truthfully,, the more I think about it. They need to go north and then go east. Try to make Central Georgia. Need to get some distance between them and the coast. The I-10 East bridge at Pensacola may be impassable by the time they get there.
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Jim
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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I know we're not supposed to do this...but...best of luck to you Frank...stay safe...as well as everyone else in the path of .
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VG
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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#103 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 4:45 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
As of the 5:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 5 has a sustained wind of 165 mph, down from 175 mph, is at position 26.9 deg. N 89.0 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.64" a continued fall and is currently on a NW heading at a speed of 13 mph.
I still think that will turn NNW-N-NNE due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough currently located over the Southern Plains region. But as timing will be off now due to the slowly accelerating forward speed, will make initial landfall near Pilottown on the Mississippi River Delta. This will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.
Therefore I am shifting my second landfall window westward now to Pass Christian, MS on the left side and Gulf Shores, AL on the right side, with a bulls eye on Gautier, MS. But due to the enormous size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.
It now appears that the western Florida Panhandle will be spared the worst of but it will still receive a serious blow. If were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.
It takes a special set of circumstances for a CAT 5 tropical cyclone to form and it is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long. But she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But at some point she will undergo another eye wall reformation cycle (ERC), will leave the very warm loop current, enter shallower shelf water and dry air entrainment and wind shear will increase and she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.
And last and least we now have T.D. #13 which is at 15.4 deg. N 46.8 deg. W or 965 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, has a sustained wind of 30 mph, a minimum barometric pressure of 29.74" and is moving WNW at 13 mph.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I no this breaks the rules,But for Frank and everyone else affected by this monster,The whole country is praying for all of you,and we will be there to help in anyway we can.This is a bad as it gets.We really need to come together as a nation and pray for these people,and then help them when the storm is over.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I know we're not supposed to do this...but...best of luck to you Frank...stay safe...as well as everyone else in the path of .
FYI, things like this are ok in situations like this. I sent Frank a PM myself. But really we're not looking to kill posts for the sake of it. We are going to be leniant with certain types of posts during . Disaster Forum is intended for have you heard about XXX in YYY type of posts. But rules are relaxed, so don't worry.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 28 2005 09:59 PM)
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kissy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
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Just curious how often you come close to your forecasts? If what you say comes about Pascagoula would be in some deep you know what!!!
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Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!
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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User
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Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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pcola,
Have you heard anything about what to expect in Gulf Breeze? Where do you live in GB and are you staying?
I live about 3 miles east of GB Proper on the North side of 98 (Grand Pointe Subdivision) and am staying. All my preps are in place, except for my wife and 2 small children are with me (ages 3 and 2), but never again, next time any Cat2+ enters the Gulf, they are flying to the Grandparents in St. Louis or KC, MO.............. ASAP.
I don't care if it costs me $4k a year to do it, putting my family through this is the worst.
Take care!
Admins, just realized my error with this post and it will NOT happen again. Thanks, and also a donation via paypal is forthcoming!
Edited by GulfBreezeFL (Sun Aug 28 2005 09:56 PM)
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Gulf Breeze, I have PM'd you. Sorry Admin but I wanted to let him Know.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Terra, cars on the roads will begin to be in danger as soon as the first and second feeder bands start making their way onshore. It will create the potential for traffic accidents all over the place and driving will become much more difficult due to heavy rain, high winds, and the potential for tornadoes. Essentially, though, that time is about now. Bands are already moving through and becoming more concentrated by the hour. Driving is fast becoming a poor option, I'm afraid, out to Mobile and Pensacola.
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