Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ed,
Thanks for the information. I had been taught otherwise in a mesoscale course here, but have absolutely no reason to go against your comments since it was just an overview course. It does help to clarify the situation, certainly.
Thanks -Clark
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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sorry for the long post. I couldn't find the link for this but it seemed worth it.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE ...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
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Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Even if it IS an , there's too much time left until landfall. An cycle only takes six hours... six hours might be a few hours too short.
ERC Info
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Geraldo is running pics to the bulletin the NWS issued today to put in perspective I guess.
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Trekman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 32
Loc: Fort Walton Beach FL
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We are getting vivid lightning and thunder here in Ocean City (North Ft Walton Beach). We got lightning and thunder with the first feeder bands of as well. Lightning flashes every 10 seconds or so. Gonna be an interesting night here.
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Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)
Emergency Administration and Management program at Northwest Florida State College
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'll tell you what...looking at those pictures on TV of the people trying to leave New Orleans scares the heck out of me. Are those people going to make it to safety before tomorrow morning?
I just heard that the bottom of the Superdome will be under water; that's why they have all the people in the stands.
I still cannot comprehend the strength of this storm. It baffles the mind that something like this could actually happen.
I think it was FNC that had the former director of FEMA on and they are saying that the loss of human lives could be between 20,000 - 50,000 people. She had him repeat it because it's unbelievable.
I am still praying that this monster weakens somehow, and despite the people who say that they doubt it will, I still have my faith in the Big Guy and right now He's about the only one who can do anything about this.
I hope that all the people here on this forum that are in the path of this storm are long gone and safe. You know who you are...and you BETTER NOT respond to this!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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VG
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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From the NWS:
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOODFRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOMEWALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED.
THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION.
PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLYTHE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Quite a monster she is and maybe a met can answer this-- how much difference to NO would it make if this storm became a cat 4? My thinking is the outcome still would be terrible. I think a cat 3 would be quite destructive also
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I looked at the graphic depicting the probable storm surge.
The surge was estimated between 20-30 feet in the New Orleans area.
I have a question. Is storm surge 20-30 feet above sea level? Or does it mean 20-30 feet above the normal water level in the area in question. For example, N.O. is 12 feet below sea level.
So do I add twenty feet to -12 or.....
I'm confused. Clarification appreciated.
Thanks,
Bev
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VG
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 12
Loc: Tampa Bay, FL
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Actually the storm surge will not visibly flow towards the shore like the Tsunami on December 26, 2004. It actually rises vertically in a very abrupt manner and almost seems to come out of the ground.
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Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Quote:
I looked at the graphic depicting the probable storm surge.
The surge was estimated between 20-30 feet in the New Orleans area.
I have a question. Is storm surge 20-30 feet above sea level? Or does it mean 20-30 feet above the normal water level in the area in question. For example, N.O. is 12 feet below sea level.
So do I add twenty feet to -12 or.....
I'm confused. Clarification appreciated.
Thanks,
Bev
Surge is the rise above current level, so you also have to adjust for the normal tide.
You then add on top of the surge the wave height. So if you have a 20' surge and 10' waves, the top of the water is 30' above the normal water level.
If you have a 20' surge and a 20' levee, you'd think you're ok - and you are, unless there are another 10' worth of waves on top of the surge......
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Nasty rain band going through here right now. Looks like a due north motion now. How it wobbles is going to tell us a lot about impacts to the East and whether N.O. is spared at all. Remember shifed east,
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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Interesting, WDSU in New Orleans is actually being broadcast from WESH in Orlando while the N.O. station evacuates north. I was watching, and I thought, "hey I know those guys..."
So for those of you who were curious, as I was, even some of the tv stations evacuated. Also of note, everyone who was outside the Superdome earlier is now inside (according to WDSU).
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Quite a monster she is and maybe a met can answer this-- how much difference to NO would it make if this storm became a cat 4? My thinking is the outcome still would be terrible. I think a cat 3 would be quite destructive also
Max Mayfield was asked this question (difference between a Cat 4 or Cat 5 into New Orleans) on MSNBC about an hour ago. He said "at this point, it's really the difference between being hit by an 18 wheeler or a frieght train".
This is such a scary event. I'm having difficulty getting my brain around how powerful this storm is and the certainty of pending damage to life and property.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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Quote:
The eye might have grown but doesn't look as cylindrical, which means it could weaken before landfall... let's pray..
I have been saying that since yesterday and today that IMO it will not hold a 5 but they got my post taken off since back then it was 175.
I still hold to what i said early today and yesterday that praying this drops some to lesson the devestation NOT stop it but lessen it..
Edited by ralphfl (Sun Aug 28 2005 09:42 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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We all hope she will weaken.. even just a little but afraid that the problem with New Orleans is we don't need it to weaken as much as we need her rainfall to go poof and as that is not going to happen.. there is a real problem. The problem is not the difference here of 5 or 10 or even 20 mph winds.. it is the rainfall and New Orlean's inability to handle it.
We all are hoping for some miracle. Read somewhere about dry air intrusion somewhere.. right now I'll grab onto any possible scenario where the damage is not quite catastrophic and just 'bad'
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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Hard rain right now....things will soon deteriorate...
I can't help but think about this ya'll....it keeps changing......wnw......nw.......nnw.....
soon n....
then nne
plenty of time for that....
shoot...I just hope it misses New Orleans...to many people will die if it hits New Orleans...I hope it misses...and then they will get busy and build those levees...instead of bombs and aircraft carriers....
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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Yeah.. he was talking about how many knives and even guns they took away from people during the pat downs.
Oh... and in the rush to go..if you forgot proof of your prescription.. you couldn't take your drugs with you .. were told there were EMT inside if you have a problem.
Oh.. and you were allowed to take lighters in but told you could not smoke.....or maybe no lighters but told you could keep your cigarettes but no smoking.
Well...while the power holds and back up holds.. we will have live coverage I suppose.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Bev
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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This article is from the New Orleans Time-Picayune. It is an interesting explanation of the dangers inherent in the topogrphy of N.O., the pumping stations, the levees, etc. in the event of a Cat 3 Hurricane. They barely brushed the possibility of a cat 4 or 5. Cat 3 appears to be enough to cause devastation due to the unique features of N.O..
Hurricane effect on New Orleans from Times-Picayune
-Bev
Charley eye-witness
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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is there such a thing as an outer layer replacement cycle?
on IR loop it looks like expelled a pulse of energy (orange and red) and is now restrengthening again.
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