MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression #14 has become Tropical Storm Maria, it is expected to stay offshore.
We're also tracking another wave in the Atlantic, 92L is the next up that will need to be watched as it moves It currently has a decent chance of become a tropical depression over the next few days. This isn't as likely to be a fish spinner.
A full synopsis of TD 14, TD Lee, and 92L can be found in Clark Evans' blog entry below, from HF in this thread, and from the thoughts of others on the Storm Forum.
Some long range models suggest a low forming in the gulf toward the end of the 120 hour forecast period, but there is not enough evidence yet to say that with any certainty.
Dr William Gray has updated his predictions, but leaves the numbers unchanged. See This link for the report.
The situation in Louisana, Mississippi, and Alabama continues to come to light, discussion on this should be in the disaster forum You do not have to register to post in the disaster forum.
Discussion of other issues relating to (outside of the immediately affected area) like gas prices, the crazy gas lines, etc can be found here.
Event Related Links
General Links
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
Police scanner stream from New Orleans
Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) - KHOU is streaming WWL TV as well HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
South Mississippi Sun Herald
Al.com - everything Alabama - Photos
AP and Reuters Photos from areas (Continually updated)
A few employees of DirectNic in the a Data Center still working on a diesel generator in central Business district are feeding out updates from downtown.
Continual News update text from WWLTV In New Orleans - alt link
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Invest 92L
Edited by Clark (Sat Sep 03 2005 11:57 AM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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I am a little concerned with 92L....probably need to keep a close eye out....
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I just got a phone call from DanielW AKA Danny...he's alive and of course, working his butt off to help others...he says Hattiesburg is in as bad a shape as most of the rest of the coast but he's alive and this was the first time he got phone service...
he will try to post on the weekend when he can get internet access...he's aware of the situation across the rest of the gulf, as they have been able to access the NO station wltv (i think)...
our conversation was brief, as i'm sure he's got other calls to make, but the most important thing is he's alive...and well, although the situation where he is is really bad...
this is the best news i've gotten all night 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
I just got a phone call from DanielW AKA Danny...he's alive and of course, working his butt off to help others...he says Hattiesburg is in as bad a shape as most of the rest of the coast but he's alive and this was the first time he got phone service...
he will try to post on the weekend when he can get internet access...he's aware of the situation across the rest of the gulf, as they have been able to access the NO station wltv (i think)...
our conversation was brief, as i'm sure he's got other calls to make, but the most important thing is he's alive...and well, although the situation where he is is really bad...
this is the best news i've gotten all night
Same here. Excellent to hear. Seems like everyone from here is accounted for.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Man, that is GREAT news!!! I'm glad he's ok, and I'm glad he's finally getting a chance to work on something when the sun is up.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I just got a phone call from DanielW AKA Danny...he's alive and of course,
this is the best news i've gotten all night
THANK GOD! Danny has been an instrumental and caring member of our forum and has done a super job for many of us. I 'met' him after Camille when I was stationed in Biloxi in 1969 as an instructor....he was one of the 'street urchins' that lived around the base and I probably tripped over him at least once as the military troops stationed there helped the civilian populace recover from that devestation. He and I became reaquainted last year during TSFH (tm) and he has communicated with me almost continuously wth his help, concern for my health and being 'just a friend'. I am SO glad he is safe! I am glad that was unable to steal such a caring person as Danny from us. She did enough damage, killed enough people and cost so many peoples dreams that this news was sorely needed. I am glad that our 'forum family' is again more complete. We still have a few who probably cannot check in, and I continue to pray they will also prove to be safe.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Hurray!!!!
This made my night. Thanks for passing on the news, Phil.
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
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OH THANK GOODNESS PHIL!
I was really worried about him!
That's awesome. 
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Catmando
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
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I have 2 questions please-First, my understanding, although limited, was there would be an increase in landfalls for the next several years becasuse of the bermuda ridge. Is it also forcasted there will be such HIGH amount of storms such as we've seen so far for the next 10-12 years? So bottom line-Is this "cycle" we're in for guidance because of the Bermuda Ridge, or 15-20 storms per year?
Secondly, I see the models represent -GFDL-UKMET-BAMD-BAMM-A98E and LBAR. Besides , can you tell me what those initials stand for, and which ones have a history of being the most accurate. Thanks!
I figured as long as Im sitting here in Vero Beach watching the storms coming in, might as well get some education.....:)
I used to have a really cool signature, but lost it in hurricane Jeanne
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tashina
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
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I don't know much but since no one much seems to be online tonight, I'll mention that the names I hear most respected around here are , UKMET and . You can read at this link to learn more:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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NHC has a model reference guide available for the models you list at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml, but note that some of the information about the dynamical models is a bit out of date.
The Bermuda ridge is a transitory feature; seasonal activity might be slightly related to it as far as it is influenced by and PDO cycles, but largely it is not the main player in seasonal storm numbers. Since it is a transitory feature, it is largely on a storm-to-storm basis as to whether or not it will be there to allow a storm to track further west or recurve; any statistical correlation is likely pretty small (likely some years with a strong ridge but few storms and/or few landfalls) and we've seen many active years with very few landfalls. We've just gotten lucky -- or are catching up for many years of misses, if you want to look at it that way -- over the past couple-few seasons.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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This will be my last post an , the remnants of which are developing ly in NE Canada and about to get trapped somewhat to the west of Greenland (good riddance).
For those looking for information on a particular section of New Orleans, the experimental NOAA research program designed to gather high-resolution data of areas where storms make landfall has made available high-resolution imagery of much of New Orleans (to match that made available for Mississippi a day or two ago).
You can get to it at:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/katrina/090E30A_KATRINA.HTM
Note that in many cases, the images are not rotated to match their actual orientation (e.g. the top part of the image is not always north). What I found helpful was to use Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/) in hybrid road/satellite mode to correlate ground features and get my bearings. For instance, in the Kenner/Metairie area, many of the images by I-10 are oriented such that the top of the image is to the east.
The full collection of images can be found at http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM. I hope this helps some of those in the storm's path.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Miami Beach, FLA USA
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Miami Beach, FLA
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My message is human not political:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have complete incompetency running this relief operation, and although I commend him and provide the utmost respect for any individual attempting to undertake this rescue operation (Dir. Brown), the statement, "that just today" he learned of these poor people suffering at the Convention Center and throughout the City of New Orleans is possibly the most disconcerting thing...causing me great fear and anxiety for those poor souls trapped in the toxic waters. Our outrage at this type of response must be known...this could easily be any of us from Florida going through what our neighbors are... we learned this all before from Andrew.
We are facing a potential storm off Puerto Rico in 4 days...think about it.
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Paulf
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 3
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92L sounds as though it will be a big one, praying it stays out to sea But the way things have gone this season? wonder if we,ll be calling this MARIA before saturday?
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I think that I have finally heard enough complaining about the response of our officials to the situation on the GulfCoast. When I think about how I would handle such an immense operation, I am overwhelmed. Please remember that the day after the storm, no one realized that New Orleans was about to get flooded. Please remember that was still making her way up the Mississippi River, knocking out power and further reducing anyones ability to respond. Please remember that there is no power and no phones in the area; thereby making communication extremely difficult. Without effective communication, it is impossible to organize the response needed to this type of disaster in a matter of days. As well, the shear amount of water and damage to infrastructure in the city and the surronding areas (including MS and AL) make it nearly impossible to move around the city and the surronding area. Please remember that National Guard troops are somewhere else with there families and lives when this type of situation occurrs and it takes time to mobalize them to the area. Please remember that resources were already stretched thin by the amount of response required in Florida last year. Please remember that for every decision to direct resources at one problem, another gets left alone; thus allowing those just sitting there watching to cry that nothing is being done. Please remember that you can volunteer to help as well, and, instead of complaining, offer to lend a hand.
I, for one, would like to see all of the newscasters in the area step in to help out instead of reporting (note the number of aerial shots of people stranded) that not enough is being done. This is rediculous and does not help the situation. Sorry for my rant, remove it if necessary, but after you do, at least encourage people to help instead of complain.
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Quote:
I, for one, would like to see all of the newscasters in the area step in to help out instead of reporting (note the number of aerial shots of people stranded) that not enough is being done.
Actually they are, but you won't see much news about that because most newscasters don't put themselves as the news. It's not very journalist like. But they are helping, so don't think that they are just sitting there and shooting footage. They are helping out, because the camera zoom can see alot more then the human eye in those search helicopters.
But don't expect them to help the next couple of days, they are getting shot at alot more since last night. And about 4 thousand guards are coming ot the city today, so soething big is about to happen. Hopefully everyone will be out of that hellhole by Monday.
Edited by Takingforever (Fri Sep 02 2005 07:04 AM)
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zacros
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 57
Loc: Johns Island, SC
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I must call myself out for stating that the newscasters should be doing more. After my little diatribe, I too started complaining. Many apologies to those that read the end of my previous post. It is a tense situation that can only be rectified in time.
However, I will continue my appeal to people to help. Donate items, food, clothing, blood, money, etc. Volunteer to house someone displaced by the storm. Do something, don't just complain.
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Don't sweat it, I think everyone is effected by this more os then December 26 2004. Afterall these are our people and know them we don't want ot see them suffer..
As long as you are doing something to help, it all that matters in the end.
Anyway, any new news on these Three Tropical waves out there? Will we see Maria today?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Actually they are, but you won't see much news about that because most newscasters don't put themselves as the news.
NBC had a story on yesterday? where one of their reporters was surveying damage in a boat and wound up rescuing people instead. They mentioned the rescuing as part of "what people were going through" so it wasn't focused on the rescue as much as the people they were rescuing. But it showed that they were helping.
Also, don't forget that the photos by the news organizations do more good than anything else. They show the world what is going on. They stimulate people to want to help. That is invaluable to the people living in the destroyed zones.
=============
A couple of news quotes I caught today (Source - Associated Press):
"The Air Force was sending in a U-2 surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft to get detailed, high resolution photographs of the Gulf Coast area."
"At 4:35 a.m. Friday, an explosion rocked a chemical storage facility near the Mississippi River east of the French Quarter, said Lt. Michael Francis of the Harbor Police. A series of smaller blasts followed and then acrid, black smoke that could be seen even in the dark. The vibrations were felt all the way downtown."
"the Pentagon is looking at ways to bring home from the war zones individual service members whose families suffered from the hurricane and need their help, said Lt. Col. Trey Cate, based in Qatar."
--RC
Edited by Random Chaos (Fri Sep 02 2005 07:35 AM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Yesterday we were talking about companies donating. I just read this:
Wal-Mart President and CEO Lee Scott committed $15 million from Wal-Mart
As part of this commitment, Wal-Mart will establish mini-Wal-Mart stores
in areas impacted by the hurricane. Items such as clothing, diapers, baby
wipes, food, formula, toothbrushes, bedding and water will be given out free
of charge to those with a demonstrated need.
Great News!
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