Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Please Excuse My being Totally Off topic. I have made it back to the Board after a Week away from the "outside". Except for my 2 Local TV stations...Who have kept us in touch with "The Real World". To quote Alan Jackson.
I had spoken with a few of you prior to . Phil, Thank You so much for keeping every one advised on my whereabouts.
I'm at work tonight, and I'm rather busy...as you might expect. I'll try to answer your PM's and Emails as soon as I can.
~danielw AKA Danny
At the risk of being also off-topic, I can only say that there were a bunch of us giving a collective sigh of relief to hear you were alive and well, and to ask you to let us know how we as a supportive community, how we can help you and your neighbors. I suspect New Orleans, Biloxi and the other communities may very well fare well but after reading your E-Mail to me, I suspect the towns not right on the coast may have to fight to get meaningful help. Let us know what we can do.
Now, to make it somewhat more on-topic, Invest 94L seems to be expanding this morning but hasn't moved much, maybe a bit West. It also seems to have a bit of rotation, albeit hard to tell but it appears there could be a classification of TD very soon. We'll all pray that whatever it does, it stays out of the Gulf and blows and rains itself out over the Atlantic, or if need be, over the Florida landmass. Anything but where ravaged.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I sure hope you're right, my friend! We had a good amount of rain here yesterday from around 2 - 4pm. I almost feel sick thinking of anything else developing. 
Haven't been able to get on lately, both kids had strep throat. If anyone can give me updates on Frank and others who were affected by the storm, please PM me. Thank you!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Can't help you there Colleen, but Tropical depression 16 has formed east of Florida........at least it is called 16 NONAME at . More to come!!!!!
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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NRL now has 94L upgraded to Tropical Depression 16...1st advisory to be initiated at 11am
--Lou
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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This is the latest from the HPC.
Can someone put it into english for me. It mentions going with the , however, the ony NG I can find has it going east. HPC says it will go west.
NO MATTER FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST WL FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD
EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO S TRACK BUT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP CYC MOTION...
USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...SO THE MANUAL PROGS
HAVE REVERTED BACK TO OUR COORDINATED POINTS FROM YESTERDAY AT
16Z. THE CAN/UKMET/NCEP ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL
RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN
THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS ARE CLOSEST TO THE 05/12Z
AND MOST RECENT ... WHICH NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP
CYCS THAN THE .
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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IS this YOUR statement or the 'S????
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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It's the HPC's
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually, the center of activity is further to the east. Weak developing systems often have two or three centers of rotation - usually they only last for a few hours. The Miami radar was picking up one of them - but its not the main player. Except for a well developed hurricane, radar is not the best tool for locating the center - primarily because of the radar beam height as it slices through the storm (in this case, at an altitude of over 3,000 feet).
Invest 94L is slowly becoming better organized this morning with some low level banding features and good convection (mostly north of the center). Pressure is down to 1009mb at Freeport on Grand Bahama Island and the wind is out of the northeast. At Nassau, the wind is out of the southwest. At the Settlement Point Buoy on GBI, the wind has been brisk out of the north northeast. The 12Z coordinates used by NOAA for the model runs were 26.5N 78.5W - which seem reasonable. Here is a link to the buoy at Settlement Point:
NOAA Settlement Point Buoy, Grand Bahama Island
I expect that this system will soon be upgraded to a Tropical Depression with slow intensification and erratic but slow movement to the northwest. The initial Advisory - probably at 11am - will help to clarify this.
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the title 16L is up on now. i was thinking that was fairly likely based on the improved satellite appearance.. gonna go check radar and see what the heck is going on in all that mess..
HF 1350z06september
looks like several folks noted this on the last page. see the hpc discussion.. think it'll be either that or the onshore/offshore loop i was thinking about yesterday (several of the globals actually show it now..) -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Sep 06 2005 09:54 AM)
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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Was wondering about a loop myself...just ran the 850mb vorticity models...consistent except for ...takes it east..majority over & up middle Fl...cmc splits it...piece in gulf rest into GA...ukmet shows it going back into Atl & appears to strengthen some & maybe even come back into Fl again? Am I reading that right? What's your...or anyone else's take?
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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In case anyone's interested: NOAA - 11am update is available
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/061444.shtml
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Interesting track. What are the reamifications of this for erosion? I know it would be worse on the Gulf Coast as FL would get the east side of the storm.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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emackl, if I may decode please. Yesterdays HPC graphics had the system off the SE FL coast heading due west along the southern tip of the peninsula (similar to ) - largely based on the Euro model (ECMWF) - thus the discussion this morning regarding the westward bias. See the animation below for the latest track from HPC - they indicated they have coordinated with the on future movement so when the 11AM comes out naming this system TD16, this will likely be the projected track for the next 5 days. Looks like they compromised between the and for the early period and then went with a pure or track into the GOM for the later period.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
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RJB
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FlaMommy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 225
Loc: Tampa(Riverview), Florida
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WOW good morning and im am absolutely amazed at how many storms we are tracking today. i do have a question though, im sure it has been answered somewhere(just dont know where) but why is the peak of hurricane season in August/September? 
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I think I heard the actual peak is September 10
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Juanjo
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
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Long time lurker, first time poster. The height of the hurricane season is early September. I believe that the peak is September 10th.
As to TD 16, Here in the greater Fort Lauderdale area, we have a dreary day, rainy, low ceilings, low temperatures (for Florida anyway)...Looking to see what TD16 will bring. I just hope that it does not go into the Gulf or anywhere near the LA, MS coast.
JJ
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm going to need to study TD#16 a bit more. If it drifts as long as it is supposed to it may be more than a Tropical Storm. Anyone see what can keep it weaker at the moment?
At work it's hard to really look at all of it. Mostly I'm worried about more erosion along New Smyrna. I might head over there tonight or tomorrow evening.
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DJINFLA
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 28
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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East central coast of Florida is taking notice now. From the Indian River County Emergency Management (Nate McCollum):
"Indian River County will remain on the west side of this system as it continues to develop. The confidence on this track is not high because of no distinct movement. The models are not in agreement and vary over 500 miles in potential movement over the next 3 days. The potential for continued strengthening is likely and this may become a hurricane in the next 3-4 days. The biggest problem for our area will be the extension of the tropical storm force winds and the movement. This will be a very tricky forecast and everyone should pay close attention.
This will likely be a big rain event for the entire east coast. Depending on the strengthening, wind preparations may be necessary later in the week. No protective actions are being recommended at this time, but actions may be necessary tomorrow. Hurricane watches may be issued tomorrow if significant strengthening occurs.
This is a brief update because I am waiting for the planes to complete their investigations. I will issue another update this afternoon after the planes complete their investigations."
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The peak is this point in the year because this is when water temperatures and (usually) upper level winds are at their most favorable for development out in the eastern Atlantic. Waters are also at or near their peak along the east coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico, allowing for close-in development from either tropical waves or occasionally along the tail end of a trough of low pressure (as we've seen recently).
In June and July, the waters and upper-level winds generally aren't favorable out in the E. Atlantic; ditto October and November. Conditions outside of the season are generally unfavorable in terms of both shear and upper-level winds with tropical waves both less numerous and less organized during those times.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Is there any possibility TD 16 could track into the Gulf or it is a pretty sure bet it will stay off the coast of Florida? Also, why is the
cone a circular shape for this storm?
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