Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 365
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Not sure if recon has been in the NE quadrant yet. So far, lowest pressure approximately 1008 mb. Close to what estimated at 2 pm.
URNT12 KNHC 061943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1922Z
B. 26 DEG 43 MIN N
78 DEG 09 MIN W
C. NA
D. 20 KTS
E. 045 DEG 90 NM
F. 130 DEG 24 KT
G. 020 DEG 42 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 25 C/ 444 M
J. 25 C/ 456 M
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 1/7 NM
P. NOAA2 0116A INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 27 KTS SE QUAD 1824Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: SW FL
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What is that excactly in the GOM? It certainly has a destinctive spin, but I know its not a tropical low. Is it mearly a UUL that had wandered(or formed) in the western GOM? If so, is there any chance that it works it's way down to the surface and creates a tropical low?
After another look I take back 'I know its not a tropical low' because now I think it very well could be. I see what I think could be a surface spin but I'm no Met so, to sum it all up, what the heck it is?
Edited by Myles (Tue Sep 06 2005 08:12 PM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Def looks like some spin to me as well
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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TD 16 is in a bad spot: between Nate and that deepening low in the central GOM...which while an upper low...is showing some signs of building convection ( a surface feature perhaps?) and is certainly contributing to the shear over 16.
I think a case can be made that 16 won't really evolve
The center is very near the big island and not much convection around it now..
I am impressed with the changes taking place in the upper low in the GOM much different now than this morning...
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doug
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
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I believe that area in the GOM is a 3rd or 4th low that spun up from the broad trough that everyone was talking about last week & last weekend. If you look back many posts, HankFrank, Clark, and others (Steve, I think; maybe Ron) discussed the possibility of 3 distinct lows forming along that trough. At least three did form, although the one currently in the GOM may actually be a fourth (I believe the third dissipated a day or two ago, but I may be incorrect), or it may be the remains of that third low. (The other two are now Nate and TD 16.)
Amazing to have watched the pattern set up and everything, 3-4 pattern-induced lows, come to fruition.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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Posts: 161
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Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
they're gonna run out of names!
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
.....
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
not much change today....
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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The discussion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.disc.html
No major change...lot of uncertainty in track.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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native
Weather Guru
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Loc: SE Florida
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Actually Rick (and I know you were only kidding...I hope) If we run out of names, they resort to the Greek alphabet. By the by, how are things in Mobile??
As for the 5pm update, I thought might have been a bit more telling..but alas, mother nature sure does like to be mysterious doesn't she?
Forecaster Avila's comments in the 5pm discussion: Quote:
I AM A
LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.
are interesting....guess it just goes to show how much they (NHC) value the output of that particular model this year.
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
GFDL is this is awfully far south of the others??? However, being the lay person that I am, I'm not sure if they've been run again and just not updated on that site...although they update adv./tracks faster that 's site....go figure.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Interesting that Avila mentions that he is hesitant to forecast a stronger system because the does not develop it at all. The did not develop into a tropical storm until after it became a tropical storm, at which point it suddenly started forecasting a major hurricane. Given the uncertainties involved, I think the official forecast is very reasonable. If it can consolidate soon and sit over the Gulf Stream for awhile, it could become a hurricane, but if it moves quicker than expected toward the coast or the shear does not diminsh as expected, it may not even become a tropical storm. The 10% wind speed probabilities on the 5pm advisory are at 110 mph (borderline cat 2/3) at the high end and 25 mph (generally considered below T.D. status) on the low end at 72 hours, which is a good indication of the uncertainty in this particular case.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Just thought I'd drop a note I saw about related web sites. The following graph (developed by the Internet Storm Center...that is as in viruses, worms, etc...not hurricanes) shows the number of new domain registations with "Katrina" in the title since hit land.
I wonder how many of them are phishing sites?
http://isc.sans.org/images/katrina.png
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I see we have TD16. Not unexpected. I see a TS in it tomorrow.
Nate...will be hurricane tomorrow probably.
Maria will continue to weaken.
Doug's system in the gulf...I see that but it looks disorganized and, as Doug said, upper level. I doubt it will develop, but it's not one I'd ignore either.
It's too active out there!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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first a bit of correction for Thunderbird12: 25mph seems to be the threashold for TD status--in 1995 that is where TD6 was upgraded
i think by now that any speculations from the end of last month about not reaching Dr. Gray's forecast numbers because of a "quiet" August are probably gone. I even expected an active season, and we have 14 storms now, possibly a 15th by this time tomorrow. On average we have 55%-60% of storm activity after August; there were 12 before September, and that may have only been 45% of the season's activity.
Now to the actual storms, Maria is weakening, i think it will be a tropical storm by tomorrow morning of not tonight; Nate appears much better organized than even 12 hours ago, it will become a hurricane tomorrow morning; TD16, while disorganized, appears on satellite to be trying to pull itself together, although i am thinking it will not reach 70mph as forecast but more like 50mph. I am currently under a TS Warning also, so i will be headed to the store after work tonight to by film for my camera 
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Jekyhe904
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 22
Loc: Jacksonville, Florida
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Local Meteorologist here in Jacksonville Tim Deegan said we may see 70-80 MPH winds. I hope this is Hype  But winds are already gusting to 35 and this is beginning to remind me of last september. Am I to plan an evac/ spend-a-night party every september ?  This looks to be a prolonged event for JAX if true with the painfully slow movement. Cant we drop some supersized blocks of ice into the eye and oceans in the storms path?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well guys, here are my thoughts on our three systems today:
Maria - weakening now due to the hostile shear conditions now moving in from the west. Should be a TS by the 0300z advisory package i would have thought, but it may hold out for a further 6 hours. Interesting how the models keep it as a strong ET system out to 120 hrs. Certainly something i will be watching closely from this side of the pond!
Nate - Visible imagery shows Nate is very well organised. In fact there could well be a feature now developing within the convective cloud shield. This would indicate that it is still strengthening, and will most likely become a Hurricane within the next 12 hours. Not alot of movement for the past 24 hours, and not really much motion expected for the next 24 hours. However, if i was in Bermuda right now i would be making my plans for an impact from Nate likely Thursday night - and likely to be a Hurricane.
TD 16 - seems to be struggling a bit looking at the visible imagery. however, recon found a closed circulation and reasonable wind field. Shear is the probelm at the moment, with the circulation centre located on the extreme southern edge of the convective activity. I dont think we will see much change overnight, and then possibly some slow strengthening on Wednesday. Given the organisation of the depression any motion will likely be erratic for at least the next 12 to 18 hours. However, after that a general north-northwest track should occur. This could be a very wet storm for parts of central and north Florida, and for Georgia too. Still too many uncertainties with this one at the moment though.
Regards 
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I am so confused! Where is TD16 positioned right now. Once I heard 90 miles east of WPB and then I heard 65 miles east of Melbourne .Still learning here, but seems to me if it is not moving it would still be around WPB???
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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Given the uncertainty that discussions always mention, what is the likelihood that the storm would pass over or very near Jacksonville as the has said over the last two advisories? Usually I put more stock into a forecast track that the keeps repeating and we've had 2 so far. Now I see where good old Mr. Deegan is now saying possible 70-80mph winds?
I'm just wonder whether I should make a trip to get more water, batteries, etc.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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During hurricane season, you should have your "hurricane store" of water, batteries and the like. If any of it gets depleted during the course of the season, replentish it ASAP.
Failure to do this is what causes rushes for goods during a hurricane, and people having none when a storm hits.
YMMV SPSFD
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Debbie:
From the - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/062032.shtml
"AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA."
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Agreed. You should always have backup stock. We do during the rest of the year - but we also have a well. We have lost electric during thunderstorms and it can come in handy.
In looking at the latest sats and wv loops (remember to take this with a large grain of salt - I'm not a met - or even close!) looks like if something were to spin up out of the GOM it would be a few days away and probably head to Texas.
I can't get a good handle on TD16, can't see what would make it go so far north - unless Nate "pulls" it. I am thinking that if the GOM mess heads west then TD16 might turn into Florida sooner than currently shown. Just my thoughts on this - still trying to read how the systems interact.
Ya'll hang in there - it's wayyyyy to busy for me. 
Hoot
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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Thanks Random as always I can depend on those of you here with much needed knowledge tracking these storms. I am still learning and so much of this stuff is way over my head. 
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