MikeC
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7:30AM Update
Ophelia is still stationary off the east Central Florida Coastline, about 80 miles east of New Smyrna Beach and is expected, but not certain to, shove east and a bit north. Due to it being a little too close for comfort Volusia county schools have closed for the day.
The area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, and a Hurricane Watch may be issued for parts of the coast later today. Take a look at the track models below for a good idea where it may go. Or in this case, we just don't know. The 's track is a best guess at this point, and they aren't even all that thrilled with it. So all of us along the Florida and Georgia coastlines will have to watch for any move this thing takes.
It has strengthened some overnight into a 60-65 MPH storm and may do so today even more, perhaps becoming a category 1 hurricane today. Overnight it flared up some, but this morning it has died back down a bit and has gotten more ragged looking, so this may keep it from gaining strength, at least in the short term.
Ophelia is still off our coastline. Most of the rainshower activity has been to the south, east, and north of the center of the storm. Still most likely it will move north and east, slowly, very slowly, and then eventually loop back around toward the west.
Some bands will make their way onshore today. With me personally having property right on the coast along New Smyrna Beach, you can be sure I'm watching this one very closely.
10:30PM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings now exist from Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, as Ophelia is about 90 miles east of New Smyrna Beach, still not moving at all since about 2PM this afternoon. It will continue to meaner for a bit, perhaps drifting north and looping around. It will need to be watched for a few more days, unfortunately.
More to come later.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed east of Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings have been dropped south of Sebastian Inlet and now extend northward to Flagler Beach. The storm is moving slowly north and northwestward, and later on may loop just offshore of Florida.
This will keep Central Florida in the outer bands for a day or two. Beyond this, the highest chance is for it to move further away from the US, increasing to hurricane strength. There is some divergence in the models, some bring it back westward toward North Florida or Georgia, and most now move it out to sea.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps lookhere.
Those in the area will want to keep watch on this one for any westward movement.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
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RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
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Video/Audio/Webcams
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Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
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Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
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Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
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Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
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KornR
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Loc: High Springs, Fl.
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Please help me understand the diff. between the model/plots.... The BAMM model is the one that caught my eye, what goes into this model that makes it so diff. than the others?
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"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"
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rmbjoe1954
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The model did not perform as well as I would expect. However, it is onyl a model and am very pleased to see Ophelia out in the ocean spinning some fish.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Pamie
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What chances does anyone think we have of Ophelia looping, turning into a hurricane an than hitting Florida? If I recall, isn't that what one of the storms last September did?
"Praying Ophelia just goes out to sea to hang out with Nate & Maria"
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The Force 2005
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The model shows "O" coming into the Gulf. That could be very bad for the Gulf Coast. Still way to early for that call. They do not need another storm right now.
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Wingman51
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That would have been "Jeanne" last yer - - A lot will depend on what happens with the 2 Highs currently stationed over the ATL east of GA and in the SE US around N GA.
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Beaumont, TX
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Even though most models have it going out to sea, there are a couple that take it into the Gulf? Why the difference?
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emackl
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Quote:
Even though most models have it going out to sea, there are a couple that take it into the Gulf? Why the difference?
According to the it has to do with the ridging in the north.
SUGGESTS THAT THE
GFDL AND MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA.
However, the only models runs I can find only 2 send her out to sea. The rest either put her across Florida or doing a loop and coming back towards the coast. None show it far enough in the future to see wether or not it actually hits the coast though.
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The Force 2005
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A number of things, the sterring currents aloft, the high pressure system to the north, with a divergence between the two systems could and I say could produce a system that gets kick out into the gulf. There were so many differences in tracks into , showed a more SW movement than any other models, that eventually came across FLA and into the lower keys, then out into the gulf. It's a guessing game right now, but I think forecastors are more perplexed more than ever, are cautiously watching this like a hawk.
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Beaumont, TX
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Any possiblity the thing in the Gulf could develop? It would be good if Ophelia headed out to sea but if I lived in Florida I'd be ready,
just in case.
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MikeC
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Ophelia's "most likely" to move out to sea, but that most likely is relative. It's not a sure thing by any bets, Georgia is a second best, followed shortly by Florida. All are within the cone and range of error. The models are still split, and will be useless while the storm isn't moving much east or west.
I'd go with the track on this one.
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emackl
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Interesting disco by the HPC:
"ECMWF RUNS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK WITH ITS WWD TRACK.
HOWEVER ASSUMING THE TPC TRACK THRU DAY 5... WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OPHELIA BEGIN TO DRIFT WWD BY DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED AS
THE ERN RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE N."
Are they hinting at a loop around and back to the coast somewhere next week?
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HanKFranK
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the loop scenario from the other day is what's in play, i guess. most of the models have shifted that way and the has a forecast track suggestive of it. doesn't look like ophelia will go onshore.. could get close to the st augustine area tomorrow... but during the weekend it should slide eastward on the base of a flat trough. ridge builds in over the top and should force an anticyclonic loop... and push the storm back to the coast next week. no idea what it'll look like then.. best bet is a low-end hurricane, based on climo. 'captured' storms of recent years include in 1999 and jeanne in 2004... those probably illustrate the range of possibilities best. storm shouldn't have made its loop back until around the middle of next week, so plenty of time to watch it in the meanwhile.
nate will clip bermuda late tomorrow-early friday, maria is heading out.. none of the waves are looking particularly troublesome. the gulf feature isn't developing.. or at least should be onshore before it can do anything. models not showing a lot of activity, but continue tracking the 65w and 40w waves.. as well as the new emerging wave on the african coast.
HF 1348z07september
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The Force 2005
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That is my take on that. I would not rule out the loop and a a more westerly track back towards the U.S.. The possibility is there, and is why forecasters are having a difficult time as well as the models. When a sysytem does not move much over time, how would the models move it if it doesn't have any input as to where the system could move.
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The Force 2005
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HF,
We only have 6 more names left for 11 more weeks of this hurricane season, do you anticipate the names being used for next year this year?
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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After this list is exhausted, they go to the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, etc)
2006's list will remain untouched.
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Cane Watcher
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I believe they go to alpha, beta, etc.. after the names are used up.
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TheElNino
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The models that take Ophelia north and then out to sea do that because they are biased in weakening the ridge too much. The northern motion of Ophelia the past 24 hours has been a result of the center reforming to the north. (there were two circulation centers yesterday). Now that they've merged a track to the west or west-southwest should begin. Latest satellite loops suggest this is already taking place. Ophelia will make landfall late tomorrow near Cape Carnaveral as a Category 1 hurricane. After weakening Ophelia will enter the Gulf and may threaten the Central Gulf coast.
Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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tpratch
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Loc: Maryland
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Cape Canaveral, eh? Looks like it'd be Volusia or further north from here.
/Palm Bay
//South of the storm either way, but would prefer that she go much further North and find her way out to sea
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Ryan
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Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
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why the sudden turn can anyone tell me why its turning andif its not any threat to land anymore,that would be nice.
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2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.
Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back
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