F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 212 (Idalia) , Major: 212 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 212 (Idalia) Major: 212 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Ryan]
      #54007 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:29 AM

Dont look at Sat Obs unless you are looking at water vapor to see whats the flow in the atmosphere. Also dont rely on any 1 model cause they change from run to run and especially system to system. If you want to find a center outside of recon..radar and vis sat data are best. Never look for movement on infrered. Current thinking is that the NHC movement is alittle too slow, should make it further out to sea then 79.5W(4) days out, maybe 75W. Then a curl back to the wsw and w by sunday-monday.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: TheElNino]
      #54008 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:30 AM

I disagree with this statement of the direction of the system...the long range radar loop from Melbourne shows a slow NNW drift...the infrared picture represented could be showing the movement of the cloud tops and an expansion of the system...but the LLC is abreast of Caneveral and seems to be slowly moving to the NNW as stated...as per the radar representation.

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: TheElNino]
      #54009 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:31 AM

As we don't want to say it, the "Gulf" is a potential as you describe it. But the thinking of the Mets as well as the NHC don't want to even to start that conversation, but in reality, it might have to soon.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: tpratch]
      #54011 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:38 AM

Ophelia:

I'm looking at the models, both intensity and track, and the sat image. Here are my opinions - don't take them as fact - I'm not a pro

Ridge to the north appears to be building. This will force Ophelia to stay south, looping it like the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models show. CMC overweakens the ridge, allowing Ophelia to pass through. I don't see this happening.

Ophelia is showing signs that it is going to strengthen beyond SHIPS guidence. It is already a Dvorak 3.0 - that's just below hurricane strength. Based on this it seems all intensity models are low. GFDL...never even makes Ophelia a TS...clearly wrong. GFDI, GFTI, and GFNI keep Ophelia a TS for 3-4 days before strengthening her to a Cat 2 hurricane in a day...also doesn't seem likely based on what Ophelia has already done. SHIPS and related models bring Ophelia up to a hurricane Cat 1 quickly, but then plateau her and slowly weaken her. While this is possible, given the SSTs and the Sat view, as long as she stay's out to sea I don't see why Ophelia won't grow stronger than Cat 1.

The track is very important to intensity. If Ophelia does this loop that is forcast, it keeps her over warm water longer. The ridge that is forcing the loop is WNW to ESE, which is keeping Ophelia from swinging out to sea, and forcing her south. GFS long term (from NECP's site) takes Ophelia into the Georgia coast and back out over the FL panhandle...the latter point weakened probably to a TD before coming back in over Louisiana. I'm thinking the impact point will be a little further south...into Florida as a Cat 2, and the crossing angle WSW. From there, given a week to allow SSTs to recover from the cooling caused by Katrina, we could see Ophelia reach the gulf as TS and strengthen back to a weak hurricane before swinging north around the ridge after 2+ days.

Lets hope GFDL is correct and weakens this thing. I don't see it happening.

============================

GFDL:

Someone asked about the GFDL and Katrina in the last thread. GFDL was very good on the track and intensity of Katrina only after Katrina became a Hurricane. Before that GFDL just kept insisting on dissipating Katrina, and gave tracks that were widely disparate and erroneous. Becuase of these track issues before Katrina became a hurricane, the southward jog before the Florida landfall was dismissed.

Basically, GFDL seems to need a well established system to build a good track and intensity for. A TS that has been so for at least a day, or a Hurricane. When a system is developing this close to land and this quickly, GFDL often never gets the chance to lock onto it.

GFDL is based on the AVN run from 6 hours before the GFDL comes out (as I recall) combined with biasing information to allow it to lock onto the current storm center. Becuase of this, fast developing systems, like both Katrina was and Ophelia is, are hard for the GFDL to get a good understanding of.

--RC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54012 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:48 AM

I don't buy into the fact that any model might weaken Ophelia, but to strengthen it. Possible hurricane strength by the 5PM advisory. Considering it is stronger now than predicted, the DV"s are higher now than they have ever been, so when the next RECON investigates, possibly, we might indeed have a much larger system, if it meanders over those warm gulf waters.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
TS Ophelia, Hurricane Nate, and Hurricane Maria [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54013 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:50 AM

The Force: That's my fear as well.

-----

We now have Hurricane Nate and Maria is back to Hurricane Maria.

Ophelia...NHC still has no clue what she's going to do. They state that at the end of the 2nd paragraph in the 11am discussion! Wow.

--RC

Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Sep 07 2005 10:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54014 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:53 AM

I agree. Ophelia has strengthened more and faster than anticipated. Since last night it has gone from 30-50 mph winds. I would expect 55 mph winds at the 2pm and then very close to if not hurr winds at the 5 pm with the new recon data. I hate to say this but, it would be better for everyone if this thing would just go ahead and come on in. Much less time to strengthen over the next few days. IMHO

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54015 - Wed Sep 07 2005 10:54 AM

LOL, it wont become a hurricane unless something dramatic happens in the next 6 hours. It still doesnt have a well defined center. Its a broad (but getting better organized) low with vortexs rotating still around it. Until we can find a tighter center....pressure under 990mb then it might become a hurricane. Probably not until tomorrow or at the earliest 11pm tonight.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jaxmike
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
Loc: Jacksonville
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54016 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:00 AM

Just read the 11AM discussion on this thing. Is it just me, or was that a really long way of saying "we really don't know right now"?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: jaxmike]
      #54017 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:02 AM

My take as well. It states that everyone on the East coast should monitor the storm. Well "DUH" do you think!!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: jaxmike]
      #54018 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:09 AM

The official forecast:

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

Anyone buying into this?

Edited by The Force 2005 (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:10 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Chris Bryant
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: NC
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: jaxmike]
      #54019 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:11 AM

I really like the "cone of uncertainty" for Ophelia- it is a near perfect circle .
I, too would rather it just came on in- though not on a path to the gulf.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Chris Bryant]
      #54020 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:20 AM

Ophelia looks good on radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml

I think Cat 1 by 5pm is a bit fast...but by 11pm is possible. Definately by morning. Ophelia is quickly getting her act together.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54021 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:21 AM

Well I am watching this one down here very closely.If it makes that loop,and heads wsw,We could be in trouble down here in South Florida.Of course we all remember Jeanne.Anyone think this storm could be a threat to my neck of the woods?

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Chris Bryant]
      #54022 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:29 AM

Well, with the steering currents the way they are right now it doesn't appear that Ophelia will be going anywhere anytime soon. She's drifted just north of Canaveral, and the winds here in Ormond Beach have shifted from NE to N. The waters where she's currently located are warm enough to warrant some strengthening, though she's still about 40mi east of the gulf stream. Like the NHC alluded to, it's going to be a waiting game of sorts to see how the trough and ridge interact, and how strong/organized Ophelia is when it occurs. Right now I'm preparing for some decent winds and rain. I've eyed a few tree limbs that look a bit suspect, and will be getting trimmed after work, weather permitted.

--------------------
Check the Surf

Edited by AgentB (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:30 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54023 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:29 AM

So if it meanders...well, a lot can change in five days. Anyone think this might head into the Gulf eventually?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
The Force 2005
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54024 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:31 AM

The banding features are starting to fill in on the NW/ and Southern side. If you notice at 11:20 of that loop, you will start to see banding coming in from the SE/Northern sides as well. I expect a much stronger storm by the 2PM update.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54025 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:32 AM

What about the cloudiness and low over the Gulf? They said, development, in any were to occur, would be slow. What
is the chance this could develop?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54026 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:32 AM

someone mentioned looping, and that is actually what the NOGAPS is forecasting at the moment, moving Ophelia south and then towards Vero; the UKMET is forecasting a loop off of NE Florida then moving it towards GA/SC border area

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
! [Re: The Force 2005]
      #54027 - Wed Sep 07 2005 11:32 AM

Um...in a word...NO! (in response to Force's question about anyone buying into it)

RC & Force - I hope your worst fears are just that...fears and not reality.

Time will tell...right now she's basically meandering out there so she's tricky to track/forecast/predict right now. I know NHC as well as others must be throwing their hands in air and rolling their eyes on this one. I for one am scratching my head. I do think however that she's getting her act together a touch quicker than originally anticipated.

My best guess (emphasis on guess) is this:

1.) She will be a hurricane come the end of the weekend. I'll stab at borderline CAT 1/2. (Conditions (at least for now, support this)

2.) I do not think she'll make it further north than 31/32N nor will she go east much past 75W before coming around again. (With lack of any real steering currents to speak of, I just don't see her getting that much further north before being forced eastward)

3.) I think if/when she makes it back around it'll be south of the Space Coast. (This ofcourse will depend upon that ridge...how strong, how south & east, etc.)

NewWatcher - I couldn't agree more....I'd gladly take one on chin from her now to prevent the threat she'll pose later.

Edited by native (Wed Sep 07 2005 11:35 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 313 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 50421

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center