moose47
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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The 70 knots in this case is the estimated surface winds so no reduction is necessary. But it is afterall just an estimate. But if it is accurate (70 * 1.15 = 80.5 mph), it would be a hurricane. But we shall see.....
Edited by moose47 (Thu Sep 08 2005 04:25 PM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The "D" item in the vortex message is the estimate of surface wind speed by the onboard meteorologist. That is not the same thing as the maximum flight-level wind, which is noted at the bottom of the message. Human-estimated wind speed, even by a professional, is subject to quite a bit of error, so they usually don't seem to use that information very often.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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well they been in the southwest quad now
URNT14 KNHC 082023
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01298 10780 12507 11717 12020
02296 20782 22494 21515 11033
03295 30784 32492 31616 12026
04293 40786 42482 41818 13026
05291 50789 52468 51818 12031
06289 60791 62440 61717 13042
07288 70793 72381 72020 13054
MF287 M0793 MF066
OBS 01 AT 19:12:10Z
OBS 07 AT 19:39:00Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 10020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01284 10797 12360 11616 32047
02282 20799 22428 21919 32074
03280 30801 32476 31616 32054
04278 40803 42485 41818 33045
05276 50803 52491 51818 32035
MF282 M0798 MF074 --74kts
OBS 01 AT 19:48:30Z
OBS 05 AT 20:07:30Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 29020
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 12
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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moose47
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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When is the last time we had 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic? Granted, Maria may not be one by the time Ophelia is upgraded, whenever that may be, but I was just curious. The next several days are certainly going to be interesting to watch. I will echo the previous poster that said it was intriguing that we are watching a tropical depression - tropical storm - hurricane transition all on radar. Granted I hope it gets away from us now but it has been fascinating to watch it develop like it has.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Well, I guess we'll find out for sure whether they are using 10% or 20% reduction in the flight-level winds, because 74 kts corresponds to hurricane force (67 kts) in the first case, but only a strong tropical storm (59 kts) in the latter case.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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This storm still appears to be drifting south. I know I am gonna hear a lot of people say it's just the center reforming, but think it has drifted a bit further south since 2 PM. Take a look at the West Central Florida Discussion, they seem to have their own ideas on this storm.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 79.5 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 985 mb.
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I'm doing a long recording of the Melbourne radar at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?3
I had to do it quick, so I reused the spot I had for the Mobile cam from (it was messed up anyway). I just pointed the image animator software to the radar loc and will be recording it as long as it is in range. This will allow a long term view of the motion of the system. I just wish I was able to start it sooner.
I'm busy today and tonight, but hope to update some from New Smyrna Beach later.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Its official She's a Hurricane Now..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
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I was just outside (in Gainesville) and the winds up in the tops of the trees seemed like they must have been at least 25 mph, if not 30. It was enough to make me go inside with the dogs, out of fear of falling branches. In other words, the winds seem stronger now (with the last passing gusts) than I've seen thusfar with this storm. I'd guess either the wind field is expanding slightly or we just happened to catch a particularly strong wind band.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like they raised it to 65 kts based on the radar velocities. The official forecast is almost the same as the previous one, but with a little more westward movement at the end of the period as it begins to loop. Looks like this is going to be a threat to the coast, either in the short-term if it does not drift NE as anticipated, or in the longer term as the building ridge likely will steer it back towards the west.
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lawgator
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 75
Loc: E C Fla.
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If I parked like Ophelia for this long, they'd have towed me by now.
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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
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Anyone want to speculate on the possibility of a west motion and moving inland over Central Florida?
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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NO! It like drawing straws now. Any updates as to new predictions. The loop seems like a likely scenario, but it has to move to make a loop 
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I'd have to say no way. I've been worried about that all day. However, now it looks like the doesn't think it's at all possible. I'm going with them and relaxing until she does or does not loop.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
I'd have to say no way. I've been worried about that all day. However, now it looks like the doesn't think it's at all possible. I'm going with them and relaxing until she does or does not loop.
well does think that is a possibility look at the 4-5 day warning cone
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Sorry, I thought the poster was referring to it coming in soon and not shifting NE. My mistake.
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Kattbyrde
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 10
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Actually, I was referring to it coming in sooner and not making the northeast turn. I live in Winter Springs, so not far from the coast, still recovering from last year's storms, so I also do not want to see it head this way. However, I would rather have her just go ahead and come in now as a minimum Cat 1, than to get out there, turn around and come back at us even stronger.
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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If you look at the latest visible, I thinks I spy an Eye. Or at least part of one through the convection. Tad further east than I thought, unless I'm catching the right side.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Hello Ophelia.
This has been an interesting storm to watch as it has progressed.
Very strange as well to have a hurricane so close to the coast and have only
tropical storm warnings up.
What happens with the recurve? Does it make it all the way to the coast?
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