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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54407 - Fri Sep 09 2005 12:46 PM

12z GFS brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.

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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Steve H1]
      #54408 - Fri Sep 09 2005 12:55 PM

Steve,

Do you have a link...clicking on GFS goes to the FSU site which has only 06 data.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Steve H1]
      #54409 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:00 PM

Quote:

12z GFS brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.




im looking at GFS and it doesn't shwo that at all it's showing Ohelia going into the GA/SC region

EDIT: they just said on TWC the track is very uncertain and that the majority of the easst coast should watch Ophelia's movements over the next few days.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back

Edited by Ryan (Fri Sep 09 2005 01:03 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Steve H1]
      #54410 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:10 PM

I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.

Edited by scottsvb (Fri Sep 09 2005 01:13 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: scottsvb]
      #54411 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:16 PM

Ophelia should become a hurricane again by 5pm if not 2pm. Winds support possibly 80mph but they might just have it as 75mph.

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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Ryan]
      #54412 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:23 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_m.shtml

Plop that into your browser and go down the center column.


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gogogabby007
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL 30.40N 86.95W
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: scottsvb]
      #54413 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:25 PM

Hi, I'm new here and really enjoy reading everyone's postings. My question is: with all this new data, is it completely out of the question that Ophelia will enter of the GOM? Thanks, Gabby.

Edited by gogogabby007 (Fri Sep 09 2005 01:27 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: scottsvb]
      #54414 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:26 PM

I don't see how it would go that far north either Scott (NOGAPS now shows further north) and I was looking at the ULL in the Caribbean as well. As the ULL moves west it may allow a WSW opening if the ridge is strong and to the NW and if SHE stays around 30W. I'm real curious as to where she'll be in 36 hours.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Steve H1]
      #54415 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:45 PM

well right now, my current thinking is along the lines of moving her to 31N before the turn but wouldnt suprise me if shes like just over 30-30.5N Just matters how fast the trough is moving and how much influence is with the ULL.

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: scottsvb]
      #54416 - Fri Sep 09 2005 01:57 PM

Quote:

I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.





For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.

When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.

The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.

So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.

Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:00 PM)


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Adam
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: ralphfl]
      #54417 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:10 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00Z and 12Z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.





For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.

When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.

The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.

So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.





Im fron Hilliard, a little town on the FL/GA border and 25 miles inland, I have been watching the GFDL runs for the past 3 runs and have been thinking for a while that the NHC track made the loop too aggressive and taking to far north. So it will be interesting to see where she is in 24-26 hrs


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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 93
Loc: Cape Coral, FL 26.63N 81.94W
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: gogogabby007]
      #54418 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:17 PM

Gabby,

If you check the NHC 1100 strike probality list or alternatively check the strike probability map on Weather Underground, you'll see the NHC 72 hour probability locations range from Atlantic City, NJ down the east coast, south to Cuba, up the Florida Gulf coast and across the Florida Panhandle to Mobile!! That shows how much of a handle the NHC feels the models have on Ophy's ultimate direction and destination. The old gal is still an enigma and probably will be for the next 24 to 36 hours. Be interesting to see how long it takes the models to come into agreement.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: scottsvb]
      #54419 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:18 PM

Scott and Ralph, it that the center of circulation on the long range Melb radar? If so, does it look like she's going more ene then ne now? Or does it just look that way?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

EDIT! Nevermind, now she looks like NE....ROFL! I swear if I refresh too often I start seeing things.


Edited by emackl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:43 PM)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: MikeC]
      #54420 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:29 PM

I noticed that the models have changed and have the storm going up the coast anywhere from GA to NJ. How many model runs does the NHC need to see before they adust their track, 3 day & 5 day bubbles.

Not concerned here in Delray, just curious


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #54421 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:39 PM

How come NHC still (@ 2:38pm) does not have the 2pm Public Advisory information up yet??? What's going on?

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: CoalCracker]
      #54422 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:40 PM

My thinking is this: the projected path has changed so much since the wave developed into a storm then hurricane then storm again, I think we'll know were shes going when she gets there. You know that the path will change again at 5pm.

URNT12 KNHC 091740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1709Z
B. 29 DEG 41 MIN N
78 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1281 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 DEG 60 KT
G. 349 DEG 32 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1516 M
J. 24 C/ 1659 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 72 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 1721Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION


82 mph winds should ophelia be a "cane" again


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: native]
      #54423 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:41 PM

The 11:00 disc said the next advisory will be at 5:00. I thinks it's because she's no threat for the time being.

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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: native]
      #54424 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:42 PM

At the 11am on the bottom said they will advise at 5pm. Its going away from land.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #54425 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:42 PM

2 and 8pm are for watches and warnings,,there are none as of now.

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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida 26.31N 80.11W
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary [Re: native]
      #54426 - Fri Sep 09 2005 02:46 PM

I see at the bottom of the 11am it says next one at 5pm....what happened to the interim 2pm?

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