MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Saturday - 6PM Update
Ophelia just about stationary, however, west northwesterly wind shear and drier air are doing a number on the convection on the west side of the hurricane and could expose the low level center this evening. No change to the Hurricane Watch.
ED
Saturday - Noon Update
Ophelia is a hurricane again and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the South Carolina and North Carolina coast. See my comments in the Resident Meteorologist Discussions Forum for details.
ED
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
Original Post
Ophelia has begun to move away from the Florida coastline, to the north. The loop around back to the US is still expected, but is now more likely for the South Carolina coastline, although all areas in the southeast coast will want to watch this system over the next few days.
The storm weakened back to a Tropical Storm yesterday evening and is now back to Hurricane Status this evening. Conditions will start to improve over Florida throughout the evening.
More to come later.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne, Charleston, SC
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Georgia Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 10 2005 06:17 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just to let everyone know that has been emailing, I'm very very very behind in emails right now, and unfortunately I can't respond to everyone. If you were having issues logging in make sure you read the information on the login page about passwords, spam blockers, and the like.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Is that a upper low to the se of ophelia? And will this effect her track any? if so how?
Edited by dolfinatic (Fri Sep 09 2005 08:58 PM)
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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I'm sorry, but based on latest satellite loops, I just don't see the northern motion that is supposed to be happening. If anything, I see more of a due east or north of due east moton in the last satellite iamges.
I am not one to post frequent and pointless posts here, although I monitor this forum closely, but I simply just don't see the northern component to the 's track forecast. Perhaps I am victim of satellite loop hallucination, however I doubt it. I clearly see a more eastern motion than the LATEST motion of NE.
What are some other meteoroligical opinions on the more "current" trends?
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I see the same motion like a E/NE or due E motion mabe the computer model are going to pick on that later.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I see the same motion like a E/NE or due E motion mabe the computer model are going to pick on that later.
I see LOTS of dry air intruding on the western side of Ophelia right now. The "hurricane" status may be short lived.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I just checked the loops and eiher the red color crayon broke, or the cloud tops are really warming up rapidly.
If there was not more to storms than cold cloud tops I would think this is not even a good TS at this point. As for direction, she is seemingly turning in one place and disintegrating or imploding at the same time. It is a head scratcher trying to see what is going on with only the infrared to look at at night.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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I think what we need to do here is not look at every little satellite loop but look at this storm over a period of time....like where it is relative to this time yesterday. It is now sitting at 30.0 N whereas yesterday, at this time, it was sitting at 28.5N or something like that. It's moving slow and the never said it was going to do anything but move slow. It does have an easterly movement but it is also obviously moving north. Thats why they said movement was north"east''. I really think considering the nature of this storm and the fact that the models have been all over the place, the has done a really good job calling this one so far. Believe me, they are seeing everything we are seeing and more.
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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From looking at this loop Washington WV it looks as if Ophelia is being pinched between the dry air to the W & NW and the ULL to her southeast....kind of like squeezing a grape between your thumb and forefinger.
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The latest recon fix puts it at 30.1 N, 77.4 W, which is already further east than it was supposed to get at any point in the forecast track from the last advisory. It would be funny if it just kept going out to sea after all of this, but we probably won't get that lucky.
There has been another burst of convection near the center, albeit a relatively small one. Latest recon had it at 983 mb, which is about where it was before. At this stage of its development, it doesn't need really intense convection to maintain itself, but it won't intensify too much without increasing the convection from where it was earlier.
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SC Bill
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 24
Loc: South Carolina
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Need a reality check here. Is there no real feeling that Ophelia could amount to a serious East Coast threat to someone? Or are people not really paying attention, both here, in the media and in the public? I live in Hilton Head, on the SC coast- a barrier island. Nearly everyone I spoke to today was surprised there even was a storm- the local media is treating it in passing "A tropical system may threaten the low country early to middle of next week. Now to sports . . . " When I last checked, there were like 29 browsers on here- what is there normally when a hurricane is this close to the coast?
Anyway, very curious. Our County Emergency Management head has announced that the storm may threaten our area earlier than originally thought, and may be calling a voluntary evacuation tomorrow, with a state-ordered mandatory as early as Sunday. Only place I have "stumbled" across that is on our town newspaper's website.
Maybe I worry too much. 
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 184
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So right you are...maybe because all eyes are still tuned to s after effects? Maybe the fact that the intensity & track are downplayed & uncertain? Maybe the it won't/doesn't/hasn't happened in long time mentality? If anything those ideas should have been squashed after last week...even last year..heck who would of thought 5 storms..seems we always forget little Bonnie..would have hit Fl in a span of 7 weeks?
I know I'm watching...out of interest as well as safety..especially after this year...these storms have not gone by the book at all...some lessons bear repeating unfortunatly.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 129
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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Looking at the latest wv imagery, it looks like a big part of ophelia has split off and is heading ne. Does anyone else see that and is it possible that the models were picking up on this as the ne movement that she was supposed to take? Because it really looks like she is moving east mostly. Also could a new low form off of the cast off to the Ne?
:?:
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Adam
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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Im on the FL/GA border, can i breath easier tonight? any thoughts?
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disneyfanfl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 24
Loc: Jacksonville, FL
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I'm wondering that too, Adam. I'm just down from you in Jacksonville. I'm concerned that it's gone more east than northeast or north-northeast and (according to Deegan) the doesn't seem too concerned with that. I, like others here, have thought all along this would be a FL/GA border or up to Brunswick. I keep expecting the models to start to shift.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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UNTIL YOU ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE CONE YOU SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORM! It appears that you are still in the cone of error. You never know!
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Adam
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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of course, anything is possible!
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gailwarning
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
The above is from the 11 pm advisory-- from stationary to 9 mph-- that's trucking along for a storm, isn't it?
A question: how far north before the water gets cool enough to really hamper further strengthening?
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StormHound
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
A question: how far north before the water gets cool enough to really hamper further strengthening?
Well, Maria is trucking off towards Iceland and still has 60mph winds. Ophelia has more issues with wind shear than water temps for a while.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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traceyd
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
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For those who forcasted for the storm not to move much further north than 30-31, do you still feel that way? I read that from more than one poster on this site. The forecast made a lot of sense to me. I would love to hear an update from any of you regarding your prediction. I am interest edin learning if you still believe it won't move further north and where you feel it will eventually make landfall.
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