Clark
Meteorologist
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SSTs recover fairly quickly after a storm's passage, even a major hurricane. That's not true, however, for the sub-surface waters. Hurricanes can affect waters 70-100m deep through mixing processes, with stronger storms able to affect a greater depth. These waters also take longer to warm back up than do the SSTs, whether through currents, mixing, or old-fashioned heating from above. The waters in 's wake are nearly back to normal at the surface -- still below what they were earlier this season, though -- but I would imagine that the below-surface waters are not. This would serve as a cap to the intensity for anything passing through there, whether moving fast or moving slow, though it is likely the waters could still support a category 2 or so hurricane. Not saying that there will be one there, but I think that's about where the true maximum intensity for that region is (under ideal conditions) right now. It'd probably take the rest of the season for the entire depth to warm back up and, with cold fronts starting to make their way closer to the coast, there would be little time for anything substantial to tap those waters. Of course, that brings up the question of a storm forming off of the tail end of a cold front there later in the season...but we'll leave that for the appropriate time.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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BTW, UKMET appears to be developing the central Atlantic wave now toward the end of its forcast run. Yet another one to watch over the next week.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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This was my concern. Good to know they will be taken care of if the there is any threat from the storm to them.
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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After our water temperature in the Gulf was 82 degreees but it is now back to 86. Before it was 91, the warmest our
meteorologist had ever seen it.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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since its inception on september 6th, ophelia has only managed to move about 500 linear miles. has to be one of the slowest storms i've ever seen. this morning it's further beaten down by shear and entraining some subsidence, but probably going to stabilize shortly as baroclinic energy sources start acting on it. i'm thinking that little lurch to the north this morning is the unsteady beginning of it's last run. not sure if it's going to reintensify in this manner... probably not. the shortwave over the ohio valley ought to grab it later today and accelerate it north-northeast and eventually northeast as it rounds to top of the ridge to the east (which has actually enhanced a little ahead of the shortwave). track should be close enough to the cape cod/nantucket area to give them a shot of wind/rain... and probably a more pronounced event in nova scotia. noticed that watches are up in canada... i guess they're finally letting the hurricane center do their warnings after juan got them in 2003.
95L is still getting a t 1.0 rating, but this should go higher later today as there's a rudimentary banding and a pretty solid convective mass persisting at the sw side of the system. it's likely to develop within the next 24 hrs based on appearance and model support... though the globals as a group have backed away from it just a little in terms of intensity. there's an inverted trough on the base of the ridge to the north creeping up on it and that should start inducing a more nw track as it nears the islands. this morning the center of the feature is around 11n51w, approximately. i'm not sure how close it will actually get as dynamic models take it into the islands and globals as a rule are taking it to the northeast. synoptic pattern days down the road should have it slow down north of the islands and wait on a shortwave near the weakness in the subtropical ridge forecast to persist there.
system ahead of it ne of puerto rico has quite a bit more convection this morning. the upper low shearing it is progressing slowly sw and should keep its development slow and unsteady. a number of global models are tracking it south of cuba right now, which looks spurious. any real system would likely sense the weakness forecast east of florida early next week before it fills.. then probably move west into the gulf, as earlier model runs were progging. as a group most globals are taking this feature into either the yucatan or mexican mainland in the extended period, but if the storm is of any significance it will be further north.
other asides... that little convective burst near 32/46 is on the same old frontal trough as the feature near puerto rico. if it persists it could become a quick flash high-latitude system, but unlikely at this point. some model support also for the wave east of 95L, which is more or less lost underneath an upper trough and in the active , but may become more apparent again further west.
if the eastpac is any indicator, we could have quite a burst of activity. two hurricanes in that basin this morning, with two healthy invests behind them, all parading west. even if the atlantic becomes active, the upper high near the gulf coast and persistent weakness of the east coast should act to keep things mostly away from the u.s. mainland for the next week or so... unless the globals are really missing something.
HF 1411z16september
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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Looks like recon is going out tomorrow................
2. DEVELOPING SYSTEM (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 17/1800Z A. 18/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA CYCLONE B. AFXXX 22XXA CYCLONE
C. 17/1500Z C. 18/0300Z
D. 12.5N 58.5W D. 13.5N 60.51W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2100Z E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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Can this be strengthening back to hurricane status?
http://www.nbc10.com/wxmap/4540095/detail.html
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Philadelphia
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If you look at my previous post and click on that link and select Mid Atlantic Satalite Loop, there is a definate shift to the left. Can someone else verify that for me, or is it my eyes. It looks like the cloud pattern to the NW quadrant is expanding to the WNW, and looks like overall movement the past couple of frames would indicate to me that the storm is moving that way as well. Any thoughts?
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Hello all...Thought I'd add my thoughts on the two new disturbances now that the Big O has finally starting to move out (did anyone else suffer storm fatigue for this system?)  Anyway, on to 95L - Looks better today, still some SW shear to the north but looks like that may be decreasing toward the west. Maybe a trop depression by tomorrow or Sunday. The track, I agree with HF, I don't see rapid intensification like I think the globals were picking up for the last 2 days, so I think a weaker system being guided by low-level flow conditions looks about right. In this case, I agree with the dynamic models (I can't say that very often) and climatology - that this system will move W-NW into the Carribean Sea somewhere south of Hispanola or PR in 3-5 days. Where it goes from there - I won't even speculate on this far out. The second blob of convection NE of PR looks to be enhanced by an ULL immediately to its west. If the ULL moves away or fills in the next two days, I think we'll have a depression. If it develops rapidly, say by 75W, then I think it gets pulled NW toward the weakness in the Atlantic Ridge left over from the Big O. However, all global models show the Ridge quickly rebuilding over the SE US by Monday or Tuesday, so it'll eventually get steered to the west. How quickly it strengthens will have big implications on its future track - more north and then west the faster it forms and perhaps a track west across S or Cent FL, more along a southern tragectory between the Keys and Cuba if it stays weaker. All in all, this storm could be a significant drought buster for west-central FL if it develops quickly.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
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RJB
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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I thought so, too, but the visible satellite shows NE movement.:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Also, radar doesn't show any NW motion:
http://intellicast.com/Local/USNationalW...mp;prodnav=none
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indianapolis
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Will 95L and the wave near PR have any effect on each other? I thought I had read somewhere that they may. Will someone clarify? Thank You!
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Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile Bay
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Floater #2 has moved to 95L  Floater 2
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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12z shows an ominous predicament for S. Fla at about 72 hours
Would love to hear thoughts on this, especially what to think of the in particular and if its a model to even pay attention to at all.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
12z shows an ominous predicament for S. Fla at about 72 hours
Would love to hear thoughts on this, especially what to think of the in particular and if its a model to even pay attention to at all.
i think its a bit aggressive but if i lose power again i am going to be real upset.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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CMC seems to be the only one that's making wish I got a generator.
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Ed G
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Clermont, Fl
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If I recall correctly, the prefered models this season are and .
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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All the models seem to be playing with the systems at about 21N/65W and 12N/52W. i believe we have a definite LLC in the 12N feature, and a developing one at 21n/65W...on the 12N feature while the global models throw this out to sea the model package keep it more south into the northern islands.
The whole western basin is aglow in color again which usually bodes for increased activity, even a burst in the SW Carribean, which we will need to begin to watch again soon.
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doug
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Agree Doug. Just told some folks at work that its going to get real busy in the next two weeks. Four systems in the EPAC and activity around the WPAC says is about to spread into the ATL basin. 
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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96L is up and a GOM threat
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_96.gif
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ophelia is on the way out, possibly to make room for two more systems. the storm should be approaching nova scotia and becoming in about 24 hours. it's going to cross some cooler waters on the way, but that should be offset by the baroclinic energy it should increasingly feed off of. probably move over or just east of NS with 50-60mph winds. nantucket may seen TS force winds, but i doubt the us mainland will.
95L could have been classified a depression today. the disturbed weather to the east is probably warping the overall cloud pattern and keeping the t-ratings down, but back when visibles were available you could see the low level circulation and what seems to be an embryonic . now that the system is becoming defined at the surface the track should bend nw soon. globals may be overdoing the nnw track because they're mixing 95L up with the disturbed weather to the east, complements of a weakening inverted trough and oncoming wave. track should be over the central to northern lesser antilles, and the system may well be there late sunday-monday as a tropical storm. a lot of the globals aren't seeing it evolve realistically, and mid-level steering currents are weak, so this system may move nw very slowly for the next few days. it may get to hurricane status near or over the islands. isn't seeing as much of a weakness in the western atlantic in the extended period, and is drawing it westward as the upper ridge over the gulf states amplifies and backs westward as well. this may act to draw 95L's future system further west in the long run, but it's still more likely to recurve.
96L has finally been dubbed. that strikes me as late, because it looked a good bit better earlier. there's a mid-level vortex and upper ridging building over the system, but the convection will have to come back closer to the surface trough. the system isn't developing that quickly and it may be sunday before it's classifiable.. or later. globals are really amplifying that upper high upstream next week, so the wsw movement in the gulf is looking more realistic. if it develops quicker early on it may get hung up on the east end of the ridge near the bahamas or florida. the canadian is probably overdoing it... but most of the other globals that only see a wave by monday are probably selling it short.
it's worth mentioning that several globals are making a new system east of 95L, taking it nw into the open atlantic. that's probably early model run bias... there may be something else that tries to develop out there next week.
HF 0051z17september
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Sep 17 2005 12:57 AM)
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