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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast
      #54763 - Thu Sep 15 2005 07:18 AM

September 16, 2005 at 8:30AM Update
Ophelia is starting to move away toward the north northeast, tropical storm watches are up along the coast of Massachusetts, mainly because some of the energy of Ophelia may get close enough to cause some coastal winds.



The waves in the Atlantic are stil being watched as well.
East of the islands (aka 95L) is still holding, about the same chance as yesterday for it to form. I think it wil turn more northward over the next day or two.

The wave north of Puerto Rico is still there, looking a bit better this morning Chances for development there are slowly increasing, but it still is rather low at the moment.

Not really anything else going on, the Gulf is pretty clear, and it's about the time for the African waves to start slowing down, so not much more is expected that way.

Developmental Chances for wave north of Puerto Rico in next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]





Original Update
Hurricane Ophelia sideswiped the coast line in Southeast North Carolina, with morehead city getting the most of it on the Northwest and north side of the eyewall. Which is some of the worst of the weather, but if anything good came of it the worst parts in the Northeast and toward the east part of the storm did not make landfall.

You can see an animated radar image of this here (Broadband only!)

And thus the exact center of Ophelia never made landfall. Ophelia finally is now starting to move away from the coastline and eventually out to sea.



Beyond Ophelia we still have the tropical wave east of the Leeward islands in the Atlantic, (called 95L) that is still moving westward and has a chance to become a depression in the next several days.

Chances that the wave east fo the islands will develop into a depression or tropcial storm within the next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*--------------]



Beyond that, there is an area northeast of Puerto Rico that seems to be a far edge tail of the former Nate area that will have to be watched, but development chances of that are very low right now.


Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite

CFHC Recording ongoing of Ophelia Morhead City and Wilmington, NC Radars

Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC


Ophelia

Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia


Wave 95L

Animated model plots of 95L

Wave 96L



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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54764 - Thu Sep 15 2005 07:22 AM

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE LOCAL REGION IS A LARGE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. EXAMINATION OF THE PAST 7-10 DAYS OF DATA SUGGESTS TO ME
THAT THERE ARE TWO VORT CENTERS WITHIN THIS AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER...ONE A PIECE OF AN AEW AT 47.5W THAT WAS SEVERELY STRETCHED
THEN SPLIT AS IT EXITED AFRICA...AND REMAINS LINKED TO THE TROF AT
56 WEST...AND THEN NEXT A LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45-46. CIMSS
LLVL VORT FIELDS AND RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST AN ELONGATED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR ALOFT AND DEEP
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER GRADUAL
ORGANIZATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TWO
LLVL VORTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MERGE OR CONGEAL BEFORE THIS OCCURS.
NHC COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN AN
EVENTUAL NW AND WNW MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH PAST TWO GFDL
RUNS LIFTING STRONGLY N OR NNW. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS YET TO
DEVIATE FROM A WLY MOTION. A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO THE SW AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE...AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL WEAKNESS N THRU NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD PROVIDE THE ENVIRONMENT TO MAKE THAT NW AND THEN NLY TURN IN
A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE FARTHER WEST THIS SYSTEM MOVES...THE LATER
THE TURN. THAT BEING SAID...ALL INTERESTS IN THE E AND NE CARIBBEAN
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.


The above is from the NWS discussion in San Juan related to 95L.I am a little worried about this system affecting the islands because of it's low latitud it is located.Let's see what will occur in the next few days.


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GuppieGrouper
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #54766 - Thu Sep 15 2005 07:43 AM

The best possible scenario would be for it to just go inland in south america as thunderstorms. Hopefully we will not have a Phillipe.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #54768 - Thu Sep 15 2005 09:11 AM

The wave near PR...models have this tracking over South Florida and then into the Gulf. Is this when some development could
occur?


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HanKFranK
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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54769 - Thu Sep 15 2005 09:32 AM

slightly worse on all fronts this morning, as i'm looking at things.
ophelia hasn't accelerated any ne because the mid-layer ridge to the east is holding. those scenarios where it tries to phase into the westerlies ahead of that oncoming shortwave are looking a little more likely. the ultimate track should be closer to cape cod, and potentially over nova scotia as the NHC official advertises. the longer it waits the more likely that it will move over the cape/nantucket, as well as the chances that it will be a baroclinically enhanced system. timetable for passage is back to saturday night.
95L has continued more to the west. it is moving slow and the synoptic pattern ahead suggests that it will start to gain latitude, but the globals as a group are taking it up to the east of the islands. the longer the system doesn't develop and continues pushing along 10w, the more likely that it won't dodge. several of the dynamic models are also taking a weaker system westward into the caribbean, which would have a different set of implications in the long term (i.e., the system doesn't lift through the persistent weakness forecasted in the central atlantic near bermuda). surely the models lifting the system immediately nw and never letting it past 55w look suspect... i doubt the islands will get off that easy. of note also is the CMC, which has a very powerful hurricane on its 00Z run.
a slight complication is the fact that 95L is at nearly 47w, running on a well defined wave near 54w. the 54w wave is on pace to catch the feature stewing north of puerto rico. a small bulge on the upper trough holding the feature near puerto rico has dug ahead of it.. amplifying the shear over the low level turning but also amplifying the ridging east of there. the 54w wave may well catch the feature near 65w over the weekend and consolidate into a low.... as some models are suggesting will happen around sunday north of hispaniola. this feature should be slightly upstream of the upper weakness forecast to camp for 95L, and most models are taking it westward between cuba and florida and into the gulf. among the spread of possibilities is ukmet showing a tropical storm in the central gulf around the middle of next week, to GFS and NOGAPS having surface troughs in the area, to the euro and canadian mostly losing it. it is telling that the upper air pattern is forecasted very favorable for a tropical system to strengthen over the gulf next week.. if it gets over there it will likely be trouble. ridging near the nw gulf is forecasted to keep it moving westward until late next week, as it weakens and shifts eastward on the GFS in recent runs. if correct this would imply that any existing system would recurve in the western gulf. it's 8 days away or so, but there is reasonable consistency among the models about what a system might do, as opposed to whether it will actually be there. i'm thinking it may well.
weekend/next week likely to be active and interesting.
HF 1331z15september


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twizted sizter
Weather Guru


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Next week [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54770 - Thu Sep 15 2005 10:22 AM

Just ran the CMC...lets hope it's overreacting on 95L...if that scenario pans out it's more likely to head north correct?

Just about every weekend/week this season has been active & interesting.


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54772 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:00 AM

Our local meteorologist says we need to keep an eye on the PR thing and he is not at all an alarmist, tends to be on the conservative
side. Whatever happens it should be interesting. I guess the season isn't quite over yet.


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54773 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:09 AM

LOL i dont think so considering we are only 5 days past the peak of the season........long way to go yet. the only thing we can hope for is a quiet second half...although after reading some of the met posts i think that would be wishful thinking.

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54774 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:14 AM

I have to agree in the short term HF that 95L slides a little further W and S of the models forcast.The system has about 700-800 miles to the islands and looks to be moving at about 15 mph.That being said maybe 3 days at this pace and 95L looks not to be in a hurry to develop.This will give it the lower steering currents and not the uppers the models predict with quick deveolpment.I have not seen the long term GFS yet but the people along NGOM are almost at the point of fatigue myself included.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Season only half way for sure [Re: javlin]
      #54775 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:44 AM

This season is definitely a long way from over. If we compare this busy season to the busy year of 1995, we had 6 more total storms, 4 more hurricanes, and 2 more major hurricanes after mid September in 1995. We also had a similiar lull at this time of only 1 storm between September 13-25, 1995.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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rexsc
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: NewWatcher]
      #54777 - Thu Sep 15 2005 01:11 PM

11:30 NHC UPDATE

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AND THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS IT
MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: rexsc]
      #54778 - Thu Sep 15 2005 01:54 PM

Looks better organized on satellite. If it develops far out does that mean it will become a fish spinner? I am interested in the wave
near PR as there would be a chance it would track into the Gulf. What are the chances of that?


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #54780 - Thu Sep 15 2005 02:08 PM

very good chance it will get into the gulf but right now the wave (96l) should just be a watch and see for the next couple of days. Nothing should develop until maybe Sunday. (95l) should become a TD later today or tomorrow. I feel this will stay further s then forecasted, intrests in Puerto Rico and the islands might have TS warnings go up Friday or Saturday. Hard to give a path more then 3 days out. Ophelia is right on path. I rememberd JB last week had it going across florida into the gulf but he changed that last weekend as he can. Anyone who makes a forecast more then 3 days out has the right to change it and if they make a speculation on something more then 3 days out its just that.Remember the NHC changes their forecasts every 6hrs if changes needed to be taken.

Edited by scottsvb (Thu Sep 15 2005 02:10 PM)


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: scottsvb]
      #54785 - Thu Sep 15 2005 04:42 PM

Bastardi lives to fight another day! Didn't he say O would go between the Cape and Block Is? Maybe not quite that track, but tropical storm watch now up for the Cape and islands. 5:00 discussion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.disc.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54786 - Thu Sep 15 2005 08:52 PM

NHC is now mentioning the area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico. Any thoughts on that one developing?

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patrickbyers
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Reged: Fri
Posts: 8
Loc: West Palm Beach Florida
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #54787 - Thu Sep 15 2005 10:47 PM

looks like this storm is going to miss the virginia coastline and go out to sea. Most likely this is not worth tracking at this point except for ships at sea.

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patrickbyers
Registered User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: West Palm Beach Florida
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: patrickbyers]
      #54788 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:10 PM

There is one thing that I forgot and that is that the Ponies on Asateaque andChiqaque islands in Virginia may be displaced because of the storm surge. But the local Rangers will make sure that the horses will be safely cared for.

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: HanKFranK]
      #54789 - Thu Sep 15 2005 11:23 PM

Incredible model agreement in the EPac and Atlantic on tracks and development over the next five days this evening. What you tend to look for in the models is consistency and agreement; we've got both right now.

Right now, all of the current runs that I have seen are developing the following features:
* TS Jova in the EPac, sending it west to west-southwest.
* Hurricane Kenneth in the EPac, sending it west but at a slower rate of speed.
* The feature behind Kenneth, sending it northwest toward cooler waters but also developing it at a decent clip. (Note that if this happens, Kenneth may meet the same fate as Greg did earlier this season, but I'm not sold on that yet...may just be enough movement from Kenneth and separation between the disturbances to keep it from happening).
* The feature N. of Puerto Rico, whether before or after passing through the Fl. Straits on a path for N. Mexico/S. Texas.
* The disturbance (95L; near 11N/50W right now) in the central Atlantic, keeping it north of the Lesser Antilles. (There is another feature behind it near 40W, but I feel that 95L is a better bet right now.)

As noted above, it's not just the first run that these models (GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, Canadian, and FSU MM5) have been showing this particular evolution -- it's about the 3rd or 4th in many cases. That's not to say that everything will happen, but given the active MJO phase coming and what looks to be favorable conditions aloft appearing in the Atlantic in the coming days, it's a good bet something does happen.

Ultimate track on 95L might affect Bermuda down the line; if it gets strong, it'll head out to sea sooner, while if it stays weak, it'll probably get further west. No such luck for the feature near Puerto Rico -- almost assuredly headed west once it breaks off of the end of the upper-level trough it is under. Ophelia heading out to sea should help kick the large trough in the central Atlantic extending down to 20N out and free up the basin for development once again. Water temperatures are still above normal across much of the basin except for those areas affected by Katrina (near-normal at the surface, probably slightly below normal below the surface) and Ophelia (below normal), while the upper-level pattern reminds me a little of that found in June just before things got kicking into July. I'm not saying that we'll see 5 storms in the Atlantic over the next month, but we may likely see another two within a week. Like HF said, the prognosis continues to go downhill with time with regards to further development.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: Clark]
      #54790 - Fri Sep 16 2005 12:04 AM

I'm trying to get back on track here. Doesn't seem to be working very well.

Clark and Hank. Thanks for the nightly updates. I now have a feel on whats going on and what to expect for the next week.

Would you happen to have any better news?

Katrina began her turn toward the NW just west of the Loop Current. That's been over 17 days ago. I would think that the currents could have replaced some of the upwelling with warmer water.
Read-dangerous situation west of 89 W. No clouds and very little precip over the Central and Western GOM in several weeks, perhaps months.

slightly off topic
Biloxi TV Met is slowing the cool front/ trough down to a Saturday passage in Biloxi. Originally progged for a Thursday passage. I guess the slower movement could work in our favor (ridge to block the Northern GOM).

I was hoping for about 6 hours of a slow drizzle. The Katrina Tinderbox is as about as dry as it can get.
The NWS here is putting out Burn Ban warnings every 12 hours for the last 4 or 5 days.
The fires out West could pale in comparison to any conflagration that starts here.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Ophelia Sideswipes the North Carolina Coast [Re: danielw]
      #54791 - Fri Sep 16 2005 12:27 AM

SSTs are growing in the Gulf, and there are some dangerously warm temps down near Cuba:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

You can see the anomalies here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

Katrina's upwelling hasn't been completely undone, but it's nearly there. Before the next system hits that part of the Gulf the SSTs should be back to above normal.

I'm not liking what's out in the Atlantic. Those waves look like they'll develop eventually. Every last one of them. SAL isn't replenishing, and what's there is dispersing. It's not going to impede development:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

The next week is going to be...interesting. I wish I didn't have to use that word.

--RC


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