F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)
Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
Track [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #54855 - Sat Sep 17 2005 02:20 PM

I think what ever happens somthing will be in southeast florida waters mid to late this week.(1) First off if 96L does not get going 17 will absorb it and head towards florida or hamper it from developing and 17 will turn west towards florida and 96L will just meander off somewhere down by mexico as 17 turns north over florida or the ne gulf of mexico. (2)if 96L gets going then 96L will deflect 17 out to sea for while and 96L will head for florida then towards the northwest gulf coast then 17 will hook back wnw towards virginia jersey area later as the ridge builds east. as for strength i would imagine hurricane force is very possible for both systems.

Edited by Robert (Sat Sep 17 2005 04:02 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands [Re: craigm]
      #54856 - Sat Sep 17 2005 02:25 PM

Just a quick note on the 2 systems of intrest. GFDL is exactly what Hank said. It changes from run to run on systems that are below TS strength, dont buy in or speculate on how strong 97l will get until it makes it to a TS. Movement looks right, wnw with a bend w towards the keys or homestead area in 3-4days. It should enter the SE Gulf by Weds or Thurs. A strong ridge currently over the N gulf is expected to slide westard late next week and a trough will dig down over the SE into next weekend. It could be steer then N towards w central florida or the panhandle closing in on next weekend or the trough might not be strong enough and it will move w or even wsw towards the western gulf and mexico next weekend. Too early to tell and also matters on the speed of the system over the next 3-4days.
TD16 should become a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday and move in a general direction towards bermuda. Again a trough entering the Se the end of next week and a strong ridge over 50-60W next week will push anything slowly NNW-N. Intrests though in the near term of the NE lesser Antilles should moniter the TD for TS force winds Sunday night into Monday.

scottsvb


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Track [Re: Robert]
      #54857 - Sat Sep 17 2005 02:45 PM

Thats confusing,what is 16l? and 17l? do you mean TD17? well system N or Hispaniola would be TD18 so not quite sure what ya ment and then that throws off what and where you have the systems.. TY

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Track [Re: scottsvb]
      #54860 - Sat Sep 17 2005 03:18 PM

16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist

AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida

Edit: Just to clarify this issue for casual users... I know Scott knows this...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Track [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #54861 - Sat Sep 17 2005 03:23 PM

Quote:

16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist

AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida




Now that GOES is back up, we can see the latest imagery... and it appears that 96L is fizzling at least for now, while TD 17 is probably already Phillippe, but doesn't appear to be moving much to me - only difference between the last image before GOES went down and the one since it came back is size of the system, not location, that I can tell - or maybe a WNW movement, but not NW to my eye.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Track [Re: Hugh]
      #54862 - Sat Sep 17 2005 03:44 PM

First Vortex Recon on TD17 is out:

818
URNT12 KNHC 171845
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/18:10:10Z
B. 13 deg 38 min N
054 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 18 kt
E. 344 deg 022 nm
F. 009 deg 022 kt
G. 258 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 308 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 22 KT W QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25C 140/09NM FROM FL CNTR

Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Track [Re: Hugh]
      #54864 - Sat Sep 17 2005 06:00 PM

Actually, I think 96L looks better now... the big blow up of convection earlier was well to the east of the center of the system... there is more convection now closer to the center.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Track [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #54865 - Sat Sep 17 2005 06:46 PM

i will be closely watching 17 becuase most or the models like NOGAPS, FSU, GFDL all show an easterly turn at one point or another, wetehr its to FL, NC, VA, NY...im watching it. I've been seeing signs up around here that read "It's Hurricane Season..and LI is in line. Are You Prepared"....i don't know those are not to appealing..

what do people think about this thanng.

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mojorox
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
Re: Track [Re: Ryan]
      #54866 - Sat Sep 17 2005 07:07 PM

I am supposed to be driving to ocean springs for a week to help my sis sift through the rubble of her house. How soon if anything develops do you think there would be any weather in the area. We are taking a tent.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Track [Re: mojorox]
      #54867 - Sat Sep 17 2005 07:23 PM

If you're taking a tent, I'd go buy a weather radio and spare batteries to augment it. These storms are just developing. The models aren't in horrible dissagreement the way they usually are with developing systems, but at the same time you can never trust tracks (a) with systems below Tropical Storm strength and (b) more than 2 days out. TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.

--RC


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SEFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
96L [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54869 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:31 PM

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Track [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54870 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:33 PM

Ok, the 18Z 96L model is out...and it is downright disturbing. 138kt hurricane from 96L just as it passes the southern tip of Florida.

The 12Z 17L model (18Z isn't out yet) shows 17L as a 126kt hurricane, though well out to sea.

Now I realize the GFDL isn't a great predictor of intensity, but frankly these two are disturbing. Anything that shows twin Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms...ack.

At least SHIPS isn't showing them that strong...only bringing both to about 100kt storms.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Track [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54871 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:33 PM

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

This latest loop with stated time 8:15 pm EDT shows TD 17 starting to get the classic look. I hope this little storm stays well away.
The disturbed area over near Puerto Rico still has some growing to do. I would prefer rain only thank you.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
Re: Track [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54872 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.

--RC




hey RC, will 17 affect anyone or you think it will stay off the coast n out to sea?

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Track [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54873 - Sat Sep 17 2005 08:47 PM

The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.

Dave


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: 96L [Re: SEFL]
      #54874 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:03 PM

Quote:

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: 96L [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #54875 - Sat Sep 17 2005 09:47 PM

Should have TS Phillipe at the 11:00PM advisory.

URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/20:13:20Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
054 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 47 deg 069 nm
F. 151 deg 034 kt
G. 050 deg 107 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 307 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 18:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 333 / 8NM


Recon Page


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Track [Re: Old Sailor]
      #54876 - Sat Sep 17 2005 10:13 PM

Quote:

The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.

Dave




Uh...the GFDL model shows sea leavel pressure at 936.5mb when winds are 138kt@950mb...which means that is surface wind speed by then, right?

And 17L's 18Z GFDL models don't show much change from the 12Z ones.

Edit: Strange e-mail address auto-generated in this post

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Sep 17 2005 10:15 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Old Sailor
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
Re: Track [Re: Random Chaos]
      #54877 - Sat Sep 17 2005 10:18 PM

Read the bottom of the GFDI chart where you need to reduce MB by 15 to 25 % see 000z run


http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

Edited by Old Sailor (Sat Sep 17 2005 10:21 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SEFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Re: 96L [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #54878 - Sat Sep 17 2005 10:35 PM

Quote:

Quote:

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 236 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 40279

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center