WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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TS Watch up to Deerfield Beach as well
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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stevie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Clear Lake, Texas
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What are the winds predicted to be as nears Florida.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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It still looks to be reforming north of where they have the center. Thats where the winds and convetion seem to be wrapping and where the strongets winds were located. Also seems as though the sheer is out of the SE and the ULL over W Cuba is moving SW
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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UH Oh! Here we go again!!!!
Seems like it will end up being a dade/broward thing last minute mabey?? Although it also seems like they always end up jogging south from where they are predicted to hit. We live in a manufactured home so cant take any chances! Does anyone think it will continue the northern trend? How abouth the new wave , too early to tell i suppose.
Thanks,
jusforsean
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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Last couple of frames on the IR loop seem to illustrate a possible reformation.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The movement does not look west at all.More like a W/NW or even alittle more NW than west.
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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I wonder what the chances are this one will just hug the east coast and then become a fish? it appears to be more nw to me too!
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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restless and want more information
arent there bouys out there that would show where exactly surface pressures are?
hard to buy a west movement when cords don't show that and neither do the sats
live in cbs house in dade and still can't just not worry on it
and we do have watches
and i dont think the water vapor loop shows a westward movement.. or not from that point anyway
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Direction is difficult to determine from satellite when a storm is just forming. There is just too much going on to know what is movement and what is the storm pulling itself together. If you look at the lower level banding out to the West of , it does look to be heading just North of West. But the official track does take it slightly North of West and then it shifts more West. So a northerly component at this point is not outside the forecast. Stop looking at frame to frame, it is all about trends. Trends in movement and trends in the models.
Bill
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nowhammies
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 19
Loc: Orlando, FL
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My brother in law and his new wife just left for Nassau on their honeymoon this morning. I am really not clear on Bahamian Geography, so I am wondering what they should expect for the effect on their week. Looks to me like they will just need to find inside things to do for tommorrow...
Heres to hoping that they dont have to make major changes in their trip.
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stevie
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 13
Loc: Clear Lake, Texas
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I agree with Bill, lots going on. is blowing up as far as cloud coverage, ULL is backing off and doesn't like the interaction, as well as the interaction with Phillippe and the short wave draped across the SW. All are factors on visble sat. as is forming.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Looks like agrees...have the movement at NW at 8pm adv
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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From the latest recon
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
From the latest recon
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE
Where is the eye forming, I wonder? The IR imagery looks like the majority of the strong stuff is east of the apparent center. If the center is actually under the biig ball... ut-oh! Didn't we just do this a few weeks ago? I'm getting a sense of deja vu, except could be stronger than was when it hit the coast of Florida.
ETA: Take note of this list:
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
The only names left on the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season list. Based upon the discussion, it looks like a system midway between Africa and S. America could ultimately become Stan. Someone needs to pour some dry ice into the Atlantic.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 18 2005 08:05 PM)
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Convergence
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
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Quote:
From the latest recon
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE
That was fast! If this recon is legit they'll probably do an update before 11.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Quote:
From the latest recon
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE
That was fast! If this recon is legit they'll probably do an update before 11.
They just did an update at 7pm CT. I doubt that they'll do another update unless there is additional information. 67 knots at 850 MB flight level is 61.64 mph, though, by my math. This thing could be a 'cane by the 2am ET intermediate advisory, if not sooner, at this rate.
ETA: WOAH! The new BAMM just got posted to WU... and it freaks me out! Has tracking along the extreme south tip of the peninsula and continuing northwest toward the Louisiana Delta region... almost exactly where slammed into (albeit from a different angle). This is just one model and just one run of that model... but, OUCH!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 18 2005 08:11 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Here's those tracks you're talking about:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
BAM's not the best model..but it's not the worst either. Definately something to watch.
As for that partial eye wall and the windspeed (probably near 55-60kt now with 67kt flight level winds)...this thing's still a Tropical Storm. The pressure's only 1004mb. It "shouldn't" be showing any eyewall or winds anywhere near that high at that pressure. Hurricanes usually start down around 980mb in the Atlantic! Is this storm going to "break the rules" the way did and not do anything by the book? If so, we can throw the intensity models out the window and probably guess better...
--RC
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weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
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how reliable is xtrap?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Erm...XTP AKA XTRAP AKA "Extrapolation" is simply it's current heading shown out to 5 days 
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hello all, this might be a little of focus but I felt a need to post this..... I drove hwy 90 today from the west end of Biloxi to the east end... I saw only one house that was standing and perhaps habitable on the front beach during the entire trip... 99% of everything within a block of the beach is gone, completely, and in many areas the devastation goes two full blocks... on the east end of Biloxi, Point Cadet, where I roamed as a gangster (youngster) is beyond recognition.... I have never seen anything like this in my life, then again neither has anyone else... and its like this on the entire front beach and even worse as you go west towards Long Beach, Pass and the Bay.... this is so much worse than Camille its unimageable... I never ever thought I'd live to see the day that I see a storm much worse than Camille... but believe me, there is no comparison relative to the damage inflicted by 's surge... I know for a fact it was at least 28 feet at my house based on debris marks on my Oak trees.... I had 5 feet of water in the second floor, and that's 33 feet above sea level... go figure....
we found our second story of our house entirely intact 1 block north of our lot, it had to travel about 400 yards thru trees and around gutted houses to get to its final resting place, the upper part of my fire place was still attached to the second floor and broke off when the second floor hit an oak tree which stopped it from going even further inland... its incredible that it was not destroyed and I was able to salvage some clothes for me and some very valuable mementoes for my kids... my storm shutters were still installed on two of the four windows and the windows were not even broken.....
another storm right now would not do much more damage to the front beach in Biloxi as everything that could possibly be damaged is gone... however, any kind of tropical system to impact New Orleans could be really bad.... due to the weakened condition of the levees... lets hope this system does not affect NO at all.... then again lets hope it does not affect anyone....
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