MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10:50PM
Rita remains a tropical storm tonight, but convection has increased, so I believe that once it clears Andros Island in the Bahamas it will become a hurricane. The stage is set for fairly rapid intesification overnight. See Clark's blog below for more information.
More to come in the morning, the track hasn't changed since earlier.
5:40PM Update
Rita is currently a strong tropical storm with 70MPH winds, it is moving west northwest, Hurricane Warnings are up from the east coast just south of the broward/dade county line to Key West.
CFHC is mirroring the Bahama's radar At this link. The direct link will not be given out as it is overloaded. (Use the mirrors)
Aditionally there is a long term recording of the Key West Radar started tonight and will run until Rtia is out of Range. You can see it At this link.
Rita is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today. When it enters the Gulf of Mexico it is expected to intensify into a major hurricane.
More to come later, the track forecast hasn't changed all that much, with Texas and Louisiana (Unfortunately) in the cone of error and uncertainty.
Noon update
Rita is up to 65MPH wnds and is wrapping together. The forecast track has been shifted to the right, or more north, and because of this some parts of extreme southwest Florida are in the cone and are under a hurricane watch. And a tropical storm watch is up north to Englewood on the west coast. The other watches and warnings from earlier remain.
The new track takes the system closer to the Keys than the prior one.
7:30am update
Tropical Storm has strengthened some overnight to a 60MPH Tropical Storm as of 5AM. Judging by recon reports it's probably closer to beween 60 and 70MPH now, so it is nearing hurricane strength and will likely become a hurricane later in the day.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
It is organizing fairly fast this morning, and still moving westward around 8-10 mph. The official track takes just south of the Florida Keys into the gulf of Mexico. The cone of error still puts South Florida in the zone, however, but the most likely track puts it through the Florida straits ever so close to the Keys.
Because of this, and Rtia nearing hurricane strength already. Hurricane Warnings are up for the now up western Bahama islands. Warnings have been up since last night for the Florida Keys. The Tropical Storm warnings and a hurricane watch remain up for South Florida south of deerfield beach. If the storm were to vere more northward then Hurricane warnings would likely go up for south Florida as well.
If you are in the Keys we recommend evacuating for this one. Listen to local authorities and news media for more information there. is forecast to be a strong category 1 / weak category 2 upon approach to the Keys and that estimate may be a little conservative.
After it enters the Gulf it is expected to move generally westward with a turn slightly to the north as it nears about halfway through the gulf. This means the Texas coast is currently the most likely spot for the track. As of right now there is nothing on the horizon that would keep from strengthening, but that could change and hopefully something can keep 's intensity in check. There is lingering dry air in the area they may help that.
The long range cone of error still has northern Mexico through Lousiana, including New Orleans, in the cone of error. Watching for trends in the models is about the best guess for general landfall, and right now the forecast track is trending northward. The best thing here is to watch for persistance and pay more attention to a Gulf area after the storm moves west of Florida.
Read Ed Dunham's met blog below for more discussion on the future track of .
Original Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Florida Keys ass moves toward the west northwest. More to come soon.
A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are up from Deerfield Beach south to the start of the hurricane warning area in the keys. The forecast track has shifted a bit north from earlier as the center of the storm has reformed a bit to the north, meaning a higher likelyhood of the system impacting the Florida Keys.
Rita is expected to continue strengthening as it approaches the Keys. The current track takes it just south or over Key West and into the Gulf eventually putting it in the center Gulf. So the entire Gulf Coastline, Lousiana, Texas, and Northern Mexico Especially, will need to watch too. If you are in the Keys, you need to evacuate, as time will run short. This storm is a relaitvely quick mover compared to prior ones.
Windshear is lowering and there isn't much to keep from becoming a Major Hurricane in 72 hours or so, which is west of the Keys. It's likely that will be a category 2 system as it nears the keys. My rule of thumb is to prepare for one category over what is forecast. Especially when there isn't much to keep the storm from strengthening or weakening like we have with .
Philippe is now a Hurricane moving northward, it has a chance to affect Bermuda, but it now looks like Philippe will pass east of the island by a good margin.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Cuban Radar
CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Video/Audio
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Ross from Suncam.tv is streaming video and webcams from the landfall area
Marc Sudduth will likely also be in the area see his live streaming video and audio here
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of
Google Map plot of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
97L
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Rita is growing rapidly.
look like a comma to me.
comma
"HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS."
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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nice pic.. shes sort of like..
im here
im there
im here again
those two centers must be driving the guys at crazy
sort of like
butter, parkay, butter, parkay
not easy to figure out but whatever is going on she is gaining lat before her publicized push west
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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this loop shows the two areas of convection merging into one. interesting to see the flare from the South get pulled in too.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Repost from last thread for Floridians and others on the Gulf Coast from Key West to Brownsville.
Based on Forecaster Stewart's Discussion of .
The last paragraph is using heavy wording...this far in advance.
I would venture to sat at this point. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern FL coast as far North as Melbourne. Please pay special attention to all the NWS and products. They Are the Official Watches and Warnings. Also watch for Hurricane Local Statements from your Local NWS office. They detail preparation and evacuation instructions.
Current HLS from NWS Miami and NWS KeyWest are less than 45 minutes old.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml
Another interesting, and possibly significant note is found at Dr Vigh's website.
The 18Z early BAMS, BAMM and BAMD models, from the noon run today, placed as far north as 27N at 90.0W.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091818.png
The 00Z early BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD models tonight now indicate could be as far north as New Orleans. That's 30.0N/ 90.0W
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091900.png
Note: these models are currently the northern most outliers. And they didn't perform well with at the 120 hour/ 5 day forecast.
Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 19 2005 12:21 AM)
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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I'm not all that impressed with the BAM series.
What does concern me significantly is that a number of other models are trending north and eastward in the early guidance, AND that the storm is moving north of west by more than forecast.
Small changes in track this far out translate into big changes in location for an impact down the road.
I'd pay very close attention to that ridge the next day or two, along with exactly where comes across the straights. If she comes in close to or right over the Keys, I believe we will see a significant northward and eastward shift in the guidance, and places that we do not want to think about having potential trouble might get some.
I echo the sentiment that basically nobody in the gulf can ignore this system at the present time. She has all the elements in place to strengthen significantly and the strength of the ridge that was forecast earlier does not appear to be verifying.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm consistantly seeing notes of Lightning from the AF Recon flying Hurricane Philippe.
Lightning is usually a sign of an intensifying storm and is not something that is freqeuntly noted in recon messages.
edited vortex message
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 00:28:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.
note: A 20nm eye in a CAT 1 storm is a serious sign of a well formed storm.
RECON transmitted an update just as I posted the above info. The min. central pressure has dropped to 988mb.
The Eye is now elongated at 15/25/15nm.
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 70 KT SE QUAD 02:15:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 19 2005 12:44 AM)
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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When I saw the BAMM and BAMD from projecting a possibility through New Orleans....
I believe that these two have typically not been very reliable...am I remembering correctly?
~edited to change 'accurate' to 'reliable'
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
Edited by ohioaninmiss (Mon Sep 19 2005 12:48 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I haven't checked the BAM_ s against any storm but . Time constraints and the present location of were the main reason I referenced .
The BAM_s tend to stay in a grouping, if you will, on most storms.
My post was mainly to inform and alert that the BAM_s grouping had moved North to near New Orleans. I'm concerned, to say the least, with that group.
While no one wants or needs a Hurricane of any Category. New Orleans can not handle another storm right now. Even the feeder bands would add to the water levels. I hope the Mayor will reconsider his plan to allow New Orleanians to return this week.
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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I understand the New Orleans citizens' wishes to get home and get the clean up started, but I am with you on this one...they should wait until the threat of (at least) is over.
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EXCLUDING GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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hey guys,
looks like is gonna be a headache for a lot of people for some days ahead. Her organization is improving quite rapidly, with both the inner core consolidating more, and the larger circulation becoming more symetric and better defined. The course should see the centre track just south of the Florida mainland but probably straight across the Keys - i would say over Key West quite likely. With improving overall organization and an improving upper level environment will likely be a hurricane later today. everyone in her path stay safe and prepare!
Best wishes
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Can anyone explain the Mariner's 123 to me.. It looks like all of Florida is shaded in this picture for .
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?basin
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Can anyone explain the Mariner's 123 to me.. It looks like all of Florida is shaded in this picture for .
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?basin
Right below that picture is....
The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term /TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum 34-kt wind radii forecast at each of those times by the /TPC. The /TPC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the TPC/NHC and proceed at their own risk. This product also includes areas of possible tropical cyclone formation within the next 36 hours.
Source: National Hurricane Center
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Land Fall Zoom for forecast:
Clickable Thumbnail
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
hey guys,
looks like is gonna be a headache for a lot of people for some days ahead. Her organization is improving quite rapidly, with both the inner core consolidating more, and the larger circulation becoming more symetric and better defined. The course should see the centre track just south of the Florida mainland but probably straight across the Keys - i would say over Key West quite likely. With improving overall organization and an improving upper level environment will likely be a hurricane later today. everyone in her path stay safe and prepare!
Best wishes
Absolutely! We all know - or should know - that any forecast beyond 3 days is far from an exact science. If takes the north route through the cone, which it seems more of the models are forecasting as time goes on... it increases the threat to Louisiana, although the guidance still is concentrated on Texas. 24 hours ago the guidance was concentrated on Mexico, though. Another shift to the east and you've got a BIG problem.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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BullitNutz
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
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Anywhere but the NGC. Those people have had enough. I hope it just spins fish and flies out into the Atlantic.
Looks unlikely though. Hopefully it'll peg some desolate stretch of Texas coastline if it has to make landfall.
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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I am not liking the latest forecast from the this morning on . Why does it seem that the women storm names are deadly? As it is advised on this site - I'm checking my list and getting some supplies tonight before the panic buying starts in......
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Time for a morning review of the models!
Rita:
GFDL is strengthening it rapidly again - strong cat 2 through strong cat 3 possible before it hits the Keys, then it tracks west with a northward jog in the western Gulf...and hits near Houston. Only shows minor fluctuations in strength after it enteres the Gulf.
CMC shows it devloping a broad, deep low that covers most of the gulf, but keeps it tracking to southern Texas.
GFS is pushing even more eastward than , with a final landfall near the TX/LA border. The track, otherwise, is similar to the .
NOGAPS is staying south, bringing into Texas near the Mexico border.
UKMET shows developing a deep, tight low before making a sharp northward curve as it nears Texas, bringing final landfall near to Houston.
Philippe:
GFDL tracks it north, and is fairly well in line with the guidance for both track and intensity.
CMC takes this storm on a very different track than the model consensus, pushing it west into the eastern Bahamas before showing any sort of northward jog. A worrisome scenario.
GFS is left of the guidance, keeping Philippe even further into the Atlantic and no threat to Burmuda.
NOGAPS beings the worst case scenerio for Burmuda, with a near to direct hit with the eye. It stays well inside the guidance envelope.
UKMET brings Philippe northward but curves it back east before it reaches Burmuda.
Invest 97L
CMC shows this storm forming and tracking northwest and slowly curving out to sea, with a northeast movement by the end of the forcast period.
No other models detect 97L on pressure graphs.
Models used
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
CMC, , , and UKMET 00Z runs
GFS 06Z run
Remember, these are not official forcasts. See the for official forcasts.
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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This is what totally annoys me about watches and warnings... and its not anyone's fault its just my observation.
Now the 8 a.m. advisory just noted that the Hurricane Warning advisory maybe extended later today northward. Many private employers will only let their staff go under a hurricane warning, so therefore if it is extended later this afternoon, many people here in the Southern Miami Dade county will be left with every little time to prepare.
Anyway I am ready, however there is a lot of debris from still laying around the neighbourhood and that is scary.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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