danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've reviewed the Recon data. The dropsonde sampled the NW area of the center. The 992mb is slightly high for her current wind speeds. But we are dealing with weather here, and nothing is written in stone.
Possibility that the NE Quadrant could reveal a lower pressure...once they complete the remaining legs.
My observation was off on the initial flight leg. Recon entered from the SE and flew NW. Normal procedures would be for them to turn and fly the western side of the storm. Then turn inbound once again and fly the SW and NE quadrants. That would give another Vortex message in around 90 minutes.
They have several flight patterns that they can use. doesn't have an eye an I would think that the absence of the Eye would make it a bit harder to find the center. Having to determine the fix by temperature, wind direction and barometric pressure. With an Eye present, they could fly a radar fix.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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ADDITIONALLY...NCEP RECEIVED 29 FL/DROPSONDE REPORTS
IN SUPPORT OF TS OPS AND IN TIME FOR THE START. 11 USAFR C-130 AND 18 NOAA G-IV.
Translated: Dropsonde data is being used in the model runs tonight.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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The 60 kt intensity estimate was also a bit higher than what would be expected from the earlier flight-level winds, but I believe the earlier discussion referenced some other instruments onboard the plane estimating 60 knots at the surface. The earlier intensity may have been a slight over-estimation, at least compared to what you would expect from central pressure and flight-level winds alone.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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This is a long quote from the 11pm discussion, but all of it is relevant to what has been discussed on here in the last few hours:
UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
THE COULD BE RIGHT IF ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE CALLS FOR TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I have never knocked the before,But I will now.I was just at the beach here and there is a steady wind of about 25mph with higher gust for the past few hours.This did not happen with Hurricane .The steady wind really surprised me.And seeing it blow up on radar it was amazing that they did not upgrade to a hurricane.But then I find out they flew into the wrong part of the storm.Why would they go into the south part first?The north part is what affects us the most. This storm exploded,no question on that.I really think this was a real screw-up by the people at the .
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Clark I have been looking for that link in your met blog post all afternoon! If I am reading it correctly, confirms my thoughts that once past the keys, not entirely favorable for intensification in the GOM unless she hits the loop current (which can be seen on that link), although it looks like will be a tad too far south for that? I was thinking eariler today that the western GOM would have some warmer water, but from that link, it doesn't look like that's really the case, it was only the surface SSTs.
So I was thinking earlier today wouldn't spin up to a Cat 3 by the time she reaches the keys. Then, in the following days, would have a hard time getting to Cat 3 or much beyond weak Cat 3 unless hitting the loop current Wed night / Thurs am. I still think that's the case and we won't see a Cat 3 at tomorrow 11am advis. That core is just having a hard time organizing, and it is going slowly. I think it'll cap out at a Cat 2.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1125 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
...LOCAL EFFECTS OF IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998...
...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE
MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE
OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES
ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. THE HIGHEST FORECASTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR
SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON
TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.
full statement on the main page, or use the link below.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=SPSEYW&version=0&max=51
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 03:39 AM)
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DennisHerman
Registered User
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Posts: 5
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as to whether or not I will have to go into the office tomorrow!
Kind of kidding but as long as everyone seems to delight in making predictions I would love to run a little test, mods willing. i do respect everyone here and love the site - been here lurking for at least two years. I think the question is topical (predictions abound here) but please remove if you feel otherwise.
Details:
I work for a lawfirm
Office is in Brickell area of downtown Miami (a cat 1 mandatory evac area)
Miami mayor failed to call for mandatory evac
Firm stayed open through normal business hours
Building "closed" at 6:30pm but allowed people to stay as long as they want
people are to call the "hotline" to see if the office is open in the morning
Miami-Dade seems to be well north of the current cone.
So............... am i heading to the office in the morning?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The aircraft was recently in the NW quadrant and only measured 59 knot flight-level winds. There is simply no evidence that this is a hurricane right now. In fact, there is no evidence yet from the current recon flight that it is even a 60 kt tropical storm, with the plane having been in the SE and NW quadrants so far. The system does have a radius of tropical storm force winds up to 120 miles from the center, but the inner core is still something of a mess.
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
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The mayor of Galveston may issue a voluntary evacuation order at 2:00pm tomorrow... lessons learned, and all that... 
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou050919_mh_galvestonevac.727aa428.html
http://www.click2weather.com/weather/4990179/detail.html
My parents in west Houston are reporting people lined up out the door at Sam's, Wal-Mart, and other stores... and they're 75 miles inland! 
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Allison
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teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 61
Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Quote:
I have never knocked the before,But I will now.I was just at the beach here and there is a steady wind of about 25mph with higher gust for the past few hours.This did not happen with Hurricane .The steady wind really surprised me.And seeing it blow up on radar it was amazing that they did not upgrade to a hurricane.But then I find out they flew into the wrong part of the storm.Why would they go into the south part first?The north part is what affects us the most. This storm exploded,no question on that.I really think this was a real screw-up by the people at the .
They went in through the southeast part first because that is the direction they were coming from. They are flying from St Croix.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
So............... am i heading to the office in the morning?
...WIND IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.emphasis added~danielw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSMFL&max=51
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well it's early but definitely a good idea.
I think landfall in TX a little to the south of current forecast, and a large windfield, which leave Galveston and Houston vulnerable and receiving the strong quadrant. I just have a hard time seeing that high moving east quick enough to allow to curve north to hit to the east of Houston (which would be a lot better for Houston), with 's speed. If so, those Astrodome evacs will be able to say they went through rita.
Take my prediction with grain of salt...I'm close to a newbie at this. Would rather put my guesses out there so I can go back later and see how close I came, or not.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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0354Z 2356N 7725W Max flt lvl winds 72kts at 3202m or 10502ft
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Clark,
I have a question regarding your blog post - specifically sea temps and heat potential. In looking at the current conditions and then the pre-Katrina conditions on 8/25 and 8/26, the difference in SST is there, but not so much in the others. Could you please comment? Thanks!
Last 60 days Hurricane Heat Potential Western North Atlantic.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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72kts x 1.15 x .91 = 75mph = hurricane, correct?
using the normal calculation--Yes~danielw
Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 20 2005 04:13 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
0354Z 2356N 7725W Max flt lvl winds 72kts at 3202m or 10502ft
Oooh, finally there...barely.
Well goodnight all. I predict at the 5am 979mb and 95mph max.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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But that was flight level.
Bill
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Actually. Recon just transmitted a new Vortex.
Pressure 992mb-No change
The Vortex was sent prior to the 72kt Mx Flt Lvl Wind being found.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The NE side is where the strongest winds are going to be found. The SFMR tool that they have on-board the recon says that the surface winds are 60kt, so that's what we'll go with. Remember -- if you have measurements of something actually occurring at the surface, you always want to use those over mathematical/historical reduction factors from aloft. Also, follow radar and you can see the inner-core developing at a fairly good clip now, with an eye evident on 4:08UTC imagery. If this holds, which I see no reason why it won't at this point in time, I expect we'll see some steady intensification overnight.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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