Black Pearl
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 32
Loc: Mobile Bay
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Latest run of (12Z) has moved east again into Lousiana 
Model Plotter
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well it looks like has an outside interest in targeting the refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?
I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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The way the models are moving, I think we need a few more runs to get a handle on it. Last night BAMM had it going 50-60 miles further north into the bottom of the FL pennisula.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.
Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.
--RC
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
Well it looks like has an outside interest in targeting the refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?
I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.
Speaking of the Astrodome, I heard just the other day on the national news that they were down to 2000 refugees left at the Astrodome. The rest have been given temporary housing (apartments, hotels, spare bedrooms, etc).
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Not sure where the 12Z run of the ? Didn't expect that out yet...should have been a couple hours still. Anyway...I can't find it or the 06Z run at any of the model animation sites, so I can't really comment on them other than the track (which can be seen on that track above).
However, take a look at the Cyclone Phase plot from the 00Z run - it shows why we will see rapid strengthening before it reaches Florida - look at the SSTs:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/rita18l/fcst/archive/05091900/3.html
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(I know this is all off topic...but hey...Geology is related to Meteology...both earth sciences!  )
And if we're talking about the "big ones" ... here are a couple links for the Seattle area:
Earthquake: http://www.pnsn.org/NEWS/PRESS_RELEASES/SCENARIOS.html
Vucanism - look at the "Hazards Map" on that page: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Rainier/Hazards/OFR98-428/framework.html
Elsewhere Vulcanism - 2 of the biggest vulcanic systems in the world are in the US: http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/index.html and http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/ - look at the size of the crater at Yellowstone (YVO): http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/images/2000-rbs-1.3ysrp_large.jpg
Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Sep 19 2005 08:37 AM)
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ohioaninmiss
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 32
Loc: Columbus, OH
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Margie -
Don't look now, but CNN spent a lot of time last night talking about the unpreparedness (if that's a word) of southern California for the "big one."
Mother Nature is not going to give us a break this year....
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Marie
Back in Ohio from a crazy summer in Mississippi!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Quote:
Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.
Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.
--RC
Actually RC, I think the strict definition is 36 hours announcement for a Watch and 24 hours for a Warning. In this case, they went early to evalcuate the FL Keys.
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RJB
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
This is what totally annoys me about watches and warnings... and its not anyone's fault its just my observation.
Now the 8 a.m. advisory just noted that the Hurricane Warning advisory maybe extended later today northward. Many private employers will only let their staff go under a hurricane warning, so therefore if it is extended later this afternoon, many people here in the Southern Miami Dade county will be left with every little time to prepare.
Anyway I am ready, however there is a lot of debris from still laying around the neighbourhood and that is scary.
I understand your annoyance. Hurricanes in general annoy me as well. The thing is that all of us who live in Florida should STAY prepared during hurricane season. This storm did not sneak up on us.
The issues watches and warnings in accordance within their guidlines.
Stay safe and gods speed everyone in Rit's path.
Tampa Bay Buc's Undefeated in 2006
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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The model shift late in the forecast is of concern..this is similiar to what happened with , with a shift west 3 days before landfall. This time it seems east. Anywhere from Houston to NO would be a bad scenario.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Ron Basso
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 267
Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Looks like the 5 AM guidance is now on the south side of the latest model runs. The new 12Z has shifted north and east. At their 8 AM intermediate advisory, it looks like they are making plans to shift the track slightly north and allow for a larger storm. Things gonna get real interesting with the future track of .
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
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RJB
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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Quote:
Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.
Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.
--RC
yea i understand..... sorry for my rant.... i am just a litle hurricaned out.. very stressed.. and i am getting to leave town right now because since we are not under a hurricane warning as yet.. all is as normal in my office today.
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Given the current long range forecast for , I was wondering if I should be concerned now? Seems to be edging up the coast
a bit. How sure are they of the weakness in the ridge? And how intense should the storm get?
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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Several stretches of coastline are not desolate...Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Port Arthur/Beaumont.
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Considering the model runs continue to move east, play it safe and prepare for a cat 3 within 100 miles of you...especially since the is actually east of you now...
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Two interesting tidbits I saw and read today:
1-All the storms that caused trouble this year were female
2-So far every storm that turned into a hurricane started in the WEST Atlantic basin this year.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Mon Sep 19 2005 09:05 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
Two interesting tidbits I saw and read today:
1-All the storms that caused trouble this year were female
2-So far every storm that turned into a hurricane started in the WEST Atlantic basin this year.
What about ?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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[]What about ?
Sorry; last time I read the sun-sentinel.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Quote:
Latest run of (12Z) has moved east again into Lousiana
Model Plotter
The scary part if i might say is that the LBAR is moving W and the other models are moving N and E.I have ridden every cane thus far in this house from Camille to her big sister .I do not know if I can ride out another one this season.Not that is coming close to here that remains to be seen but if she does?I bring this up also because I saw Max Mayfield on the FNC last night saying NO and the NGOM are not out of the woods yet.
Side note read yesterday in the SunHerald with a good laugh 3' black tip shark in owners pond.The pond is 5 miles inland N of Pass Christian.The owner said he had Red fish and Bat Rays also they have since died off and the shark will to before long.The salinity is starting to decrease.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I've always noticed that the LBAR is an out lyer (sp); anyone know why?
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Is trying to form an eye,but north of where they say the center is?Would like some other opinions. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentvis.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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