TN
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
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Hi everybody!
Looking at the five-day cone and at computer models this morning I start worrying about New Orleans again. Not only do several of these models thake really close to New Orleans, but there is also the risk of strom surge or at least battering waves if passes south of the city. Could this not break the barriers sent up with sandbags and re-flod the city again?
Cheers,
TN
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The views on the visible loop suggest a WNW movement (right toward Andros)...If this is not a jog or an organizational thing, this exposes most of SE Florida, IMO.
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doug
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Looks like they will shift the track more north @ the 11:00 advisary.That is not good news for S. Florida.Just a little bit north means worse conditions for all of S. Florida.Pressure continues to drop.Here we go again!
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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The concern is definitely there. Considering the Mayor wants to allow people back into the area. In addition, Houston looks a bit close to possible eventual landfall and let's not forget all the people that transitioned to that area.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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I think we're looking about 40-50 miles north based on the models. Though I still think I'm north of the worst of it and just see some TS stuff, I wonder when I'll loose power. FP&L reassured us that they did work on the grid, so its a given we'll loose it.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Mon Sep 19 2005 10:06 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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If it becomes a trend they will let us know about it by 2pm. Otherwise it is still the storm trying to solidify and if the ridge is retreating it will move more toward south Florida. But, so far that is not a big worry. If she were already a hurricane it would be a worry. While she stays at tropical storm strength, Florida will have typical summer time weather just more of it. was much much more than a tropical storm. Do not panic and be aware.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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Check out the model..
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Mon Sep 19 2005 11:52 AM)
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gvl, fl
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Gainesville, FL
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S Fla experienced winds in the 80 mph range with (not too much more than that.) It is possible this storm could be stronger in 36 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?chart
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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We have 16,000 new residents here in Beaumont because of . Houston, of course, has more. Also, a mass evacuation
out of Houston would be difficult. I really don't think they should be encouraging people to return to New Orleans this early
either. Does anyone know how intense the storm is supposed to get?
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TDW
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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With the conditions the way they are N.O. I think a Cat 1 would create massive devistation. We are still cleaning up here in Mobile, but if is going to turn, for the sake of N.O. I hope it turns a lot.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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The Force 2005
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 299
Loc: Philadelphia
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Well, here we go again. Let me say this, the models didn't predict that would get to CAT 5 with an insane pressure of 902MB. It also didn't predict a more southerly track after it passed the Keys. But with that being said, I believe the is being very cautious, but have to realize this, that Max Mayfield said the N.O. anf the Gulf Coast is not out of the woods. I think that the SST's post are near what they were prior to landfall. The High to the east of FLA and light winds aloft in the Gulf havbe the potential for to slide right around the high and strengthen very rapidly as did . Like everyone is saying and now the models are Trending East, the worst case could soon be realized once again. It wouldn't bow well for those people, regardless where strike. I could see a CAT4 96HRs out into the Gulf. Now no ones wants to say it, but we could be seeing another "BIG" storm hit the NGC. A scenario that no one wants to re-play. But till it becomes eveident, I will wait and see like everyone else.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
Looks like they will shift the track more north @ the 11:00 advisary.That is not good news for S. Florida.Just a little bit north means worse conditions for all of S. Florida.Pressure continues to drop.Here we go again!
they finally hoisted those warnings you were looking for.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Quote:
Well it looks like has an outside interest in targeting the refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?
I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.
Speaking of the Astrodome, I heard just the other day on the national news that they were down to 2000 refugees left at the Astrodome.
You know, I don't know what I was thinking...they should be sending the evacuees in TX to Miami, now, of course, not CA. It should be the standard policy to bus hurricane evacuees to somewhere else on the coastline that might still get hit during this very active season.
You notice Nagin didn't want those guys to come back; the city is broke and he asked for "business owners" to return!
OK the models are really clustering a little further south than Louisiana, and the official track for the moment is even south of the clustering even after the 5am adjustment (and I haven't checked but the 11am is probably out by now), and they've had a very good track record this season; but certainly the standard advice remains true that everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it, until it has passed north of their latitude. We're not going to know more specifics about landfall for another day or two, except that it seems apparent now that conditions again will be favorable for intensity to increase to major hurricane status, so we'll probably be looking at a Cat 3 and possibly a Cat 4 in the GOM (but probably not at landfall), and as with , she'll have to land somewhere.
EDIT -- See, from the discussion: "...most of the models have shifted farther north late in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...The official forecast is adjusted to the north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model concensus."
NHC discussion has it a weak Cat 3 hitting near Galveston in five days (Sat)...wait until Wed to see the 72hr. Plus by Wed aft/evng she should be hitting the loop current; I am guessing at about 85.5, 86.0W, and about 25N? So look for it to hit Cat 3 by say Wed night / Thurs am. Feeling clueless. I have no links at my new job...anyone care to post current info on loop current and whether or not it is still a large factor, why or why not; SSTs may be misleading because there will still likely be some cooler water underneath 's path, if goes further N than the current forecast track.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Just got some heavy rain and it's getting a little gusty.The11:00 advisary is very important,alot of people are waiting for that one before they take action.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Beau, wanted to make sure you did not think that I was only thinking of the transitioned folks when it came to TX. Nobody needs these things, last I saw potential for Cat 2 by landfall but as you see below, powered up, and admittedly has a difficult time w/ strength, much better year over year w. track, but intensity is still the caveat. I would agree at this point even a min cat hurr is the last thing NO and east needs right now.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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jusforsean
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 23
Loc: Broward County
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What warning did i miss???
We are debating weather to stay or go. We live in a mobile home in Broward and with , my neighbors screen portch was on my lawn. So, given that i wouldnt mind if it were going to be a mild tropical storm but something tells me i might want to expect a little more than that. I am thinking by the 11am advisory they have to descide if broward will be included or not. Otherwise we will quickly run out of time here as many people arent willing to make preperations unless they are forced to. Even if it is good to be on the safe side.
Thanks
Gina
Gina - always error on the side of caution as you suggest! 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Mon Sep 19 2005 11:54 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Hurricane warning from the border of Broward on south.Track is more north.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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bigpapi
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 31
Loc: Myrtle Beach, SC
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Does anyone know if recon is in the storm right now? If not, why don't these agencies coordinate when a storm is within 24 hours of landfall in the U.S. My guess is we have another Tropical Cyclone Special Update before the 2pm intermediate advisory informing us of now Hurricane .
On a side note, does anyone see the irony of Hurricane hitting MargaRITAville?????
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native
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
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11am is out...
23.N 75.2W:
Movement is WNW @ 11mph.
Max winds 65mph winds gusting to 75mph.
Ftlaudbob: do you mean including Broward or just Miami-Dade?? You said from the border of broward south....meaning border of PB/Brow or Brow/Dade??
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
11am is out...
23.N 75.2W:
Movement is WNW @ 11mph.
Max winds 65mph winds gusting to 75mph.
Ftlaudbob: do you mean including Broward or just Miami-Dade?? You said from the border of broward south....meaning border of PB/Brow or Brow/Dade??
Starts at the southern border of broward and miami -dade.Does not include Broward at this time.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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