danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
..RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
..AREAS AFFECTED THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
..NEW INFORMATION AT 130 AM EDT...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground is now saying it's a hurricane and is predicting it could exceed the damage done by Hurricane Georges in 1998 which they claim was the worst recorded hurricane in Key West (I had thought the 1935 storm was the worst but that is what they are saying): http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I guess he has been reading the Hurricane Local Statements from Key West NWS Office.
Based on the 0709Z Vortex.
Rita is Still a Tropical Storm.
Pressure is down 3mb to 988mb.
Max Flt Level Wind 64kt NW Quad 0509Z
Update to the HLS from NWS Key West:
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
...EVACUATION IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER
CONDITIONS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS
ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR
SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT:
IN KEY WEST...
HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE.
CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET.
WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET.
ON DUCK KEY...
HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61.
IN ISLAMORADA...
ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5.
ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4.
ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH.
IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE.
IN KEY LARGO...
WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98.
MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KEYW.shtml
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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its 4:41 am... in southern dade county... very quiet so far... i woke up in time for the 5 am....
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-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Quote:
Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground is now saying it's a hurricane and is predicting it could exceed the damage done by Hurricane Georges in 1998 which they claim was the worst recorded hurricane in Key West (I had thought the 1935 storm was the worst but that is what they are saying)
Just as a historical note, the 1935 Labor Day storm was a very compact hurricane, fortunately...its damage was focused on the middle keys from roughly Islamorada to Marathon. Key West had some rain, but that was about it.
As for , I woke up this am expecting some real serious overnight intensification and found none, as well as continued movement that should take the worst of the weather thru the Straits rather than over the Keys. Good chance for the Keys to "dodge the bullet" on this one (but then again that's what we thought about NOLA around mid-afternoon on 8/29).
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
As for , I woke up this am expecting some real serious overnight intensification and found none, as well as continued movement that should take the worst of the weather thru the Straits rather than over the Keys. Good chance for the Keys to "dodge the bullet" on this one (but then again that's what we thought about NOLA around mid-afternoon on 8/29).
Watching the short range radar... Key West appears to be headed for nasty weather in the next few hours. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.
As for lack of strengthening... the difference between 73 mph winds and 74 mph winds isn't really significant. Since the only reports wind speeds at 5 knot increments, the winds could be anywhere from 58 - 62 knots and they would call it 60 (70 mph), I think. The radar presentation looks like there is an eyewall on the north side which is what Key West will get.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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trinibaje
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
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its 6:41 a.m. here in south west miami dade county and the wind and rain is really picking up and has been steady for the past 1/2 hour.
--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
its 6:41 a.m. here in south west miami dade county and the wind and rain is really picking up and has been steady for the past 1/2 hour.
Hang in there - you should catch a break in a few minutes. The band is just about to pass out of Miami. That looks to be the worst that Miami-Dade will experience if the storm continues on the track its on, unless there is something beyond radar range. The Keys are obviously a different story.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
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I'm in Jupiter, FL. I usually just read the discussions and don't post much, but I'll do a few posts throughout the day today to keep everyone updated on the weather here.
Hope everyone stays safe!!
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 18
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At 5:30 a.m. today, just a little breezy; clouds were very low, moving fast, and actually very beautiful.
About 20 minutes ago, just had a little rain go through. Now the sky is a beautiful color of blue and pink!
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well she didn't get it tog overnight. I should have got that. Last night I caved just before I went to bed and overestimated how quickly she'd be coming along by this morning. She does look better than when I went to bed though, definitely better organized. Now it looks like mid-morning before reaching hurricane status, then I don't see how she could strengthen too much in the GOM until she gets out as far as say 87W (less shear, a little bit of warmer water). She's going faster than I thought so instead of Wed night / Thurs morning, I guess we're looking at that happening earlier, but again not staying that strong all the way to landfall. Well at least I'm seeing the more westward trend that I thought from yesterday evening.
edit -- seeing a ragged but definite center of circ on Keys long-range radar
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Sep 20 2005 07:29 AM)
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flarrfan
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Spring Hill FL
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Quote:
Quote:
. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.
Maybe "good chance" not the best choice of phrase, but compared to yesterday's intensity forecasts of possible Cat 2 on top of Key West, a Cat 1 center passing over the straits rather than the island, even with some NE "eyewall" involvement, probably won't give them much more than they had with , which was underforecast for them. Hopefully, Key West will not see much more than what they saw three weeks ago.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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What's the deal with the radar? Just got caught up. and both Key West and Miami missing like two hours of data. The first image after that just showed up, 11:29Z, looking much better. Strong band almost surrounds the center now.
OK when I get back after the morning shower, the 8am will be out and we will probably have Hurricane .
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Sep 20 2005 07:42 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Rita seems to quite happy being a tropical storm.
Not quite the bomb some thought at least not thus far.
I wonder if it's possible for to be a tropical storm all the
way across the Gulf. My hope is that at best only makes it
to a Cat 1 and ony blows down tree limbs and power lines.
I'm ready for this season to be over.
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Nope... still not a cane at 8AM.... but, they are waiting for recon to really answer that question. I've never understood why the recon flights are scheduled to provide data just *after* an advisory time.... Bizarre.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Dr Lyons on has been screaming that it's a cane for going on 18 hours now. Anyone have any recent recon data ?
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK so the SW to NE supplemental recon info tallies with the lopsided appearance of the convection on sat image. Well I am thinking if they find a stronger wind in the NW quad, then update to hurricane status, as pressure is dropping and temp diff is still very strong (7 deg). But that is not at all a sure thing, looking at radar. If not...the core will tighten up in a couple hours and then the winds should increase a little, enough to bring it to hurricane status.
So is shear the main factor? I saw shear on the outflow all yesterday aft but outflow still seemed to continue and to be going strong at the time, much better actually than this morning...does shear affect the stabilization of the core?
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Here you go HCW:
501
URNT12 KNHC 201216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/12:03:50Z
B. 23 deg 43 min N
080 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1309 m
D. 55 kt
E. 113 deg 056 nm
F. 186 deg 069 kt
G. 110 deg 044 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 14 C/ 1526 m
J. 21 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. E220/50/40
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A OB 07
MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 11:50:20 Z
BTW: New thread
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