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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: radar [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55394 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:51 AM

The us might hate cuba but cuba being right under florida takes alot of potential open water energy away from any hurricane going between them, I expect that Rita is going to stay somewhat stable in speed/strength for the next couple hours until it comes out the other other of what I call the Flunnel(Florida/Cuba Funnel). I see it turning into a solid CAT1 within a couple hours as it really is quite well formed right now.

Predictions: Texas coast right along the NHC track, strong CAT2-weak CAT3 UNLESS it slows down.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: radar [Re: Psyber]
      #55395 - Tue Sep 20 2005 10:54 AM

You can now see an eye forming on IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55396 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:04 AM

We have had nonstop bands of strong rain and wind for the last hour or so. Not far apart.. almost constant though some are much stronger than others.

Son in Hollywood lost power as big transformer blew.

NBC 6 located in Miramar (broward) inland lost power and is on TV with generator.

Actually...NE side looked weak until about an hour ago and almost as soon as the eye started showing weather here got noticeably stronger..

There were before that NO real bands north of South Dade rotating in and then BAMN!

fun to watch.. hope i don't lose power in North Miami Beach

sky very very dark since about 10am

oh and MM74 thru 76 closed

strong strong band with thunder, maybe its not showing on radar?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: LoisCane]
      #55397 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:09 AM

There's a mess of storms associated with Rita - they've been coming in off the coast over the last few hours.

Right now we're simply overcast but there's plenty of rain off the coast visible on Melbourne's radar - and it's heading inland.

Southern radar shows a classic comma shape and convection which hasn't quite wrapped around the center completely. Once it does, we'll see more strengthening, and she'll hopefully continue on her path towards the west.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: texas [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #55398 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:13 AM

The Tampa radar does suggest that Rita is dragging some rain behind it far to its NE so it is possible that we in West Central Florida may experience some relief from the drought. That may be tonight though IF it holds together
We actually need a slow moving tropical depression.

--------------------
doug


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: texas [Re: Psyber]
      #55399 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:13 AM

Yeah, I know we Floridians always think we're gonna get it, but that's because we HAVE "gotten it" in recent years. Can't blame us for being jaded...

Love this website- you guys are awesome! I learn something new every time I log on.

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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: tpratch]
      #55400 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:14 AM

I see that. Wonder if those bands will weaken as they come towards land since Rita is west of our longitude here in Melbourne and should cut off the banding effect as it heads westward. A little off subject but a concern nonetheless, anyone see a feature to the NW of Philippe, near 25N/60W. Seems there's a circulation there moving WSW under ridging. Was this acknowledged by forecasters today? Seems like an item to watch over the next few days. Cheers!!

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: LoisCane]
      #55401 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:18 AM

I should have been more specific... the NE quadrant close to the center had dried out some, though it seems to be coming back a little. There is plenty of action to the NE in the outer bands. There is a tornado watch up for south Florida, so keep an eye out for tornadic activity if you live in that area.

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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: texas [Re: Psyber]
      #55402 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:18 AM

I can tell you that my cousin in Pass Christian has always scoffed at canes- lived through Camile, so she had the "I'm Invincible" syndrome. After Katrina, she swears she won't even stay for a TS from here on out!

Eyewall looks kind of ragged on the last sat. Hopefully this storm won't get too much stronger... but I'm only a layman.

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: texas [Re: doug]
      #55403 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:24 AM

Rain would be wonderful. Maybe we will get enough heating this afternoon to get up a nice thunderstorm.
I just checked Tampa radar - looks like they are dying out just before they get to us. Cross your fingers.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
11am advisory [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55404 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:25 AM

The 11am advisory brings the intensity up to 75 knots (85 mph). The forecast track seems to be a little further south. The max forecast intensity is 100 knots before landfall. The discussion mentions the "distinct" possibility of rapid intensification over the Gulf, but does not include that in the forecast since such events are difficult to forecast.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55405 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:28 AM

The satellite and radar both suggest a growing and strenghtening system...Looks like de ja vu.
Key West will miss the eye by about 60 miles and may miss the real northern eye wall as well by 20-30 miles...Rita looks due west in motion Most of the southern half of the peninsula could get rain and increased wind from this today...

--------------------
doug


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: LoisCane]
      #55406 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:38 AM Attachment (192 downloads)

You could see it really intensify once it started to get out of the florida straights. If you're watching the IR/local dopler loops it's like someone flipped a switch.

She has food now, the question is how much is she going to eat before she lands...doesn't look good by the water temps...


--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: Psyber]
      #55407 - Tue Sep 20 2005 11:44 AM

Does look drier on the N- NW side. Hopefully this will be a trend but I doubt it. I hope it doesn't gain much more strength before it moves thru the straights. Wait- it looks like it's wrapping around itself again on the NW quadrant. Not good. Still looks kind of rough in the center, though. Oh, well...

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: pryord1]
      #55408 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:03 PM

804
URNT12 KNHC 201539 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/15:43:10Z
B. 23 deg 49 min N
081 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2947 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 041 deg 077 kt
G. 310 deg 019 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3052 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. E220/40/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A Rita OB 20 CCA
MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 13:43:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 140 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR


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susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: pryord1]
      #55409 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:04 PM

I'm just curious, and I'm certainly not an expert, but I'm wondering why the hurricane would head for the dry air over Texas as opposed to the weakness in the dry air near the panhandle. Here's a link to look at...
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteusnational/uswatervaporsatellite_large_animated.html

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 11am advisory [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #55410 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:04 PM

Yes and did you like the "For those who follow just the skinny black line..." comment about the cone!

That cracked me up.

Well latest recon showed pressure drop to 980mb. To someone who made another comment about rapid intensifcation or deepening...I misspoke...what I get for trying to be in a hurry. Yes it is rapid intensification, not huge in terms of mb, and not explosive deepening, not unless we see a 30mb pressure drop in 6/12 hours.

Let's see...from 988 to 980 in five or six hours, only 8mb in that time period.

Explosive deepening is a drop of 5mb for six consecutive hours or drop of 2.5mb for 12 consecutive hours, that is, 30mb total.

The shear map has changed quite a bit from yesterday, I thought...I thought I remembered there was more shear just west of the FL coast, which is not the case this morning, but now the hurricane is entering an area of low shear. I am not sure how long but for at least 12 hours. But this isn't a large area right now. You can still see the shear acting on the outer bands both to the exteme west, taking apart the cirrus bands, and on the NE, past the islands (like, 12:45Z to 14:45Z on the visual sat images).

OK the water is still warm here so could get down to 970 or to borderline Cat 3 range in the next 12 hours, but that is probably it.

Now I didn't realize that high was going to move east after 48 hours...I thought it would be in place a little longer. So I guess the landing won't e as far SW on the TX coast as I thought yesterday, but closer to Houston/Galveston area, and even possibility it will land to the NE of that area, even though not as likely.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Tue Sep 20 2005 12:51 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward [Re: susieq]
      #55411 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:20 PM

This might not be an expert explanation, but I'll try. Basically storms take the path of least resistance. Imagine that there is a "circle" smack in the middle of the GOM. If Rita were further north and the "circle" was further south, she would move along the "rim" of the circle. Instead, Rita is further south and the the "circle" is further north, pushing Rita to ride the "rim" where she will encounter no resistance.
Hope that makes a little bit of sense, LOL.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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pryord1
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
Re: 11am advisory [Re: Margie]
      #55412 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:23 PM

New models out agree with you.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

--------------------
The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 11am advisory [Re: Margie]
      #55413 - Tue Sep 20 2005 12:26 PM

After trending south for awhile, the 12Z GFS has shifted back north, bring the system in just south of Galveston. It also deepens the system quite a bit more, bringing it down to 976 mb in the western Gulf and about 980 mb at landfall, which is about 10 mb lower than the previous runs. Sometimes, when the global models indicate that sort of deepening (which is unusual for them since they don't resolve the central pressure of hurricanes very well), that can indicate a significant intensification of the system and/or an expansion in the size of the system. It will be interesting to see what the other 12Z model runs have to say.

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