Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Surface winds 165, Cat 5, just heard from Met in Tampa, believe currently is stronger than
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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There is a north componant, and I usually view wobbles as changes up to 3 hours. if it keeps up much longer though... I'm not sure why recon fixed things at 24.3N ... unless it'd moved a little south of due west at some point and is coming back north.... but either way, a north motion is bad bad bad
Han Solo said it best, "I gotta bad feeling about this"
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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bn765
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Never.......and i mean never would i have ever of thought something that would be stronger than ...especially in less than 3 weeks. This thing is strengthning and it will probably will be stronger than .
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Ed in Va
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The inland flooding is going to be horrific. Here's the afternoon HPC, with still over OK in 7 days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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ralphfl
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if you look it jogged south then back north so net gain is about west.And yes you got to give it more time before you call it a nwnw movement.WHICH btw it is suppose to do in order to get as far north as the track is.
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:16 PM)
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twizted sizter
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Taz & Bloodstar...have been tracking that myself this afternoon...too much to just be a wobble...be interesting to see what's going on in another hour or so.
Others have jumped on this bandwagon...as well on some other boards...definitly not a popular opinion to voice.
My question is why not? I know...the high blah, blah, blah...but hasn't climitalogy been thrown out the window this year? Haven't these storms thrown us plenty of curveballs? Why is this one so different? Not bashing or any mets...very legit question as to why we shouldn't expect any surprises from this monster.
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charlottefl
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A Good way to get a handle on how the storm is moving as compared with the offical forecast track is to goto www.nhc.noaa.gov then click on satellite imagery, GOES 1 Infared loop. There are several options at the top, check trop forecast points and it will show them over top of the satellite and you can compare 's motion with the offical forecast.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Both windfield and intensity continue to increase: on sat images, windfield continues to expand since noon, and officially updates intensity to Cat 5 with 165mph max sust surface winds.
Just for a reference point - is not currently stronger than was. 's highest sust winds were 175mph and lowest pressure, 902mb. Also at that time was over six times larger in area than , which in terms of overall energy was tremendous, although comparisons are more commonly in terms of pressure or windspeed.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:33 PM)
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Ed in Va
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Latest spaghetti model shows a little more spread in the track, but most are still focused on the mid-Tx coast.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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FlaRebel
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Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
A Good way to get a handle on how the storm is moving as compared with the offical forecast track is to goto www.nhc.noaa.gov then click on satellite imagery, GOES 1 Infared loop. There are several options at the top, check trop forecast points and it will show them over top of the satellite and you can compare 's motion with the offical forecast.
Hurricane '04(Port Charlotte)
To make the next projected plot she will have to move DUE west. I don't think that will happen. I hate to see another storm of this magnitude so soon after . I won't be surprised to see all models trend a tad more to the right in the next runs.
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KATFIVE
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I don't see why anyone would dismiss a possible northward jog out of hand. As you say, records are falling this year and there have been many times on this board and others in which I have seen meterologists and very very knowledgeable storm trackers get it wrong, especially concerning intensity. There is a lot we still don't know so keep watching that track and keep us informed!
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R2RICKSTER
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Loc: Delray Beach, Fla
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Twins
Katrina- 26.2 88.1 175mph 907mb
noaa
Rita 24.7 86.2 150mph 920mb
noaa
Edited by R2RICKSTER (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:34 PM)
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Clark
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Eyewall replacement cycle is still some time away. Updated microwave imagery suggest that the makings of an outer eyewall are about 50-60% complete with no inward movement noted. The outer eyewall has to form before it starts moving inward, then it takes some time before the cycle actually completes with the new eyewall. The storm can still intensify and/or maintain itself up to the point where the inner eyewall begins to collapse -- technically about 75% through the cycle but the starting point of what we normally consider the eyewall replacement. I think there are about another 12hr, 18hr max before we get to that point. There's a chance the storm gets below 900mb.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Hunter
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URNT12 KNHC 212027
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:36:50Z
B. 24 deg 21 min N
086 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2360 m
D. 125 kt
E. 053 deg 009 nm
F. 134 deg 161 kt
G. 048 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 8 C/ 3063 m
J. 27 C/ 3042 m
K. 2 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A OB 11
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Keep in mind that the timestamp on that vortex message is before the dropsonde that indicated a pressure of 908 mb:
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Sep 21 2005 08:35 PM)
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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Cnn says it is looking at the possibility of a shift a bit north. Pressure is down to 906mb
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KATFIVE
Weather Watcher
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What is your source on being 6 times the size of . The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Impressive Floater pic http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
****************
Ed
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
What is your source on being 6 times the size of . The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Terra
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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If there was no 2pm EDT advisory, why does weather underground have 2pm coordinates, windspeed, and pressure? And, if they were measured, why aren't they updated here?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518.html
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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