gailwarning
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 35
Loc: Satellite Beach FL
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A couple questions...
1. I read on this site awhile back that the larger the storms get, the more they tend to spin themselves north. Is that in play here?
2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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I photoshop'd a few satellite images over each other and connected the dots (attached). This is likely to be at least somewhat inaccurate, but I came up with a 300 degree heading.
The images are from 12:15 to 19:45 UTC
Worth noting that if it is heading 300deg it would still be in the very northern edge of the cone.
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gogogabby007
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 5
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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According to that link, looks big enough to cover a good portion of SE and NE TX and LA. Is this realistic (meaning the relative size to US and is accurate) or is it just my perception? Thanks.
Edited by gogogabby007 (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:54 PM)
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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for the NW people 5pm bam Hurricane center located near 24.4n 86.8w at 21/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 11 kt
...Rita reaches 165 mph winds...becomes an extremely dangerous
category five hurricane...the second of the 2005 season...
at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of
Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
northward.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Edited by ralphfl (Wed Sep 21 2005 04:55 PM)
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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Quote:
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What is your source on being 6 times the size of . The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
According to the archives, had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.
BTW, new thread.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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5:00 is out...you have to scroll down to see it:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I'm only saying this because I learned it with and not everyone may remember it.... the motion that the gives is a 6-hour average. So, in the past 6 hours, the storm moved 0.1N, 0.9W, which is essentially due west. This type of binning of data averages out small wobbles and focuses more on true, long-term motion.
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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ralphfl
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
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or look at few posts above.Wierd no mention AL ALL about a NW N shift.From 24.3 to 24.4 the whole day seems kinda west to me.
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bn765
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 60
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Ive seen that people are gettin reports of the pressure down to 906mb?? This means it would be lower than was when she was 175. any thoughts?
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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
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While it's true that 6 hour averages give overall, long-term motion, the bad thing is that if a turn begins shortly before the new advisory comes out, the average motion can be deceiving. For instance, the motion for the first 5 hours may be due west, but if in the last hour a turn begins, it won't necessarily be reflected accurately in the average. taught us that lesson down here. I seem to remember that when he made landfall, the motion for the last official advisory was obviously wrong.
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Lilcaeser
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
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Quote:
Quote:
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What is your source on being 6 times the size of . The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
According to the archives, had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.
BTW, new thread.
NHC is saying now TS winds extend 175 miles. Just to clarify.
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Lilcaeser
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
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I'm counting 5 frames now. Correct me if I'm wrong.
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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but still a tad north of the official track. the thing about that is that any deviation this far from land makes landfall change hundreds of miles.
looks like a Houston/Galveston thing.....maybe east of that. remember the envelope the uses. It should not suprise us that the hurricane is deviating from the projected path a little. but if it keeps trending like this...it could go into Louisiana...I am not wishcasting...just observing.
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Takingforever
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 43
Loc: Philadelphia, PA
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Quote:
2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?
I read in Wired Magazine that the limit is 214 MPH I believe. That's the limit the atmosphere can take before it rips itself apart. lol
So, this is the Season from Hell II: Ultimate Destruction. Makes last year look like it was jsut the rehearsal....
Ok, they are breaking heat records in Texas..what effect, if any will that have on ?
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 49
Loc: Navarre, FL
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Still seems like it's moving more NW now- even after 2 hours' worth of frames. Isn't it a little early for this turn?
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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