MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11PM
Rita's moving West Northwest, it's weakened a bit, with intensity likely to fluctuate up or down somewhat overnight. Pressure is back up to 917 mb. However it looks like the eyewall replacement cycle that was going on, so in the short term it may restrengthen a bit first.
The track forecast hasn't changed at all since earlier this afternoon.
After landfall the storm is expected to stall out over land in northeast Texas, causing great rains.
Original Update
Hurricane is now moving generally west northwest, it has weaked a bit to a category 4 storm.
After encountering some dry air to the northwest, has recovered nicely and is actually intensifying a bit this evening.
Rita will probably hold 'steady-state' for a while on intensity. Motion is still generally west northwest and at times northwest.
Yet the forward speed is a lot slower.
Meterologist Ed Dunham thinks that the ridge to the north is not as strong as advertised. And it is likely that and a short wave moving through the Great Lakes have eroded the ridge and a more northwesterly motion is probably going to set in fairly soon.
The forecast track has shifted a bit to the right, closer to the Louisiana and Texas border. Close to Port Arthur and Beaumont.
We may see yet another adjustment by Friday morning. Landfall Saturday morning near the state line - with the variance from High Island. Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana.
Intensity at landfall could be a high end Cat III (a low end Cat IV is still possible since the quicker adjustment to the east will avoid most of the modest shear zone to the west).
This eastward adjustment means heavier rainfall for the New Orleans area, and could still generate flooding for Galveston from Galveston Bay to the north of the island.
Warnings are up from Port O'Connor in Texas to Morgan City in Louisiana.
The most storm surge prone area of the storm, just east of the eye. Will likely impact the extreme northern Texas coast and Western Louisana the most.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Check out the blogs below, Clark Evans has more, including information of potential impacts along the coastline from New Orleans to Corpus Christi and inland to northern Texas.
Event-Related Links
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management
Radars
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Video/Audio
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Galveston, Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of
Google Map plot of
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
Edited by SkeetoBite (Fri Sep 23 2005 06:11 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Latest recon still at 913 mb (actually might be slightly lower, since 700mb height dropped and surface winds in the dropsonde were 15 knots). Also, the outer eyewall has shrunk to 35 miles in diameter, at least according to the report.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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I just saw this in the news:
Carefully monitoring the storm's progress, Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco urged evacuations for everyone in the coastal parishes of southwest Louisiana on Thursday.
"Rita took a turn to the east last night and southwest Louisiana is now in danger," she said in a warning to the area's population of up to half a million people.
Did I miss something last night? I'm trying to remember when turned east...
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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Scrappy
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Thank god (Mike) a new thread was started. Hopefuly this thread will not turn into a flame fest like the others with this hurricane as topic.
How can the be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?
I have read this board for a long time and have found the information posted on this board is sometimes 24 hours ahead of the predictions.
I have a radical theory as to the reasons, politics.
This board has no political ties to government, we see the facts as they are and arent afraid to make a prediction. This position makes a profound difference in delivery of the facts as they are presented translating into absolute speed. This is how the shoul be, unteathered by politics, more lives would invariably be saved as delivery of information would increase.
Any thoughts?
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Tom "Scrappy"
Tampabay - 82 years and counting without a direct hit.
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Psyber
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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I just posted a private message to Hugo on that exact topic. I've seen some pretty vague news releases for about the last 24-36 hours from . It's like a tarot card reader...they say things like "i see money in your immediate future"...when payday is on Thursday. To say "some weakening is expected" with less than 36 hours left before landfall...if i'm hedging on possibly getting the hell out of dodge and someone says "some weakening is expected", I might just stay.
To say, "some weakening is expected" when is passing over what looks like a pretty significant potentially hurricane strengthening eddy is somewhat irresponsible in my opinion.
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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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I was listening to the local met(bryan norcross). He said there is a possibilty that the short wave that was deeper then forecast could pass and the high bring it back west . Not for long because the High will push east. He was saying could do a little S track before it hits Texas/ Louisiana. 
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Cash
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 11
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Scrappy:
The reason the is so conservative is that they have more serious obligations in their authoritative role. They can't afford to be inconsistent from hour to hour. Predictions on this board over the past two days have ranged from the mid-TX coast to the eastern half of LA. The has to go with the data with which they are presented and be as scientific in their prognosis as possible. They can't afford to stare at IR loops and envision sharp right turns when the science doesn't bare it out.
And there is still a good chance that their track as it stands will bear out well. Unless the data generating the forecasts change radically, they owe it to the millions of people relying on the information to be conservative and not to overly alarm or relieve large area based on wobbles and eyeballing.
Michael Cash
(formerly of Lakeview)
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errorcone
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 6
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Quote:
How can the be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?
Well, to be honest they aren't far off. It's about 40 miles further east right now then where predicted at the 11pm forecast last night. Less then 100 miles if you go back 24 before then to the 11pm Tuesday.
And the projected landfall is still well within the errorcone from the last several days.
This hasn't been a very easy storm to predict and they aren't doing bad.
Also, you need to know something about the predicted tracks. They will not and do not jump them long distances. They ease them out there. You could have everyone in in agreement that the hurricane will land near NOLA, but if the previous track had it landing near Houston, they will not put the projected path under NOLA. Instead they'll slowly walk it towards NOLA eventually getting there in a few forecasts.
They often even tell you this flat out in their discussions. And knowing how they use the computer models to aide in their forecasts you can usually predict the direction they'll walk it to and even where it will end up if the models agree well.
They do this because these things are not easily predictable. And they don't want landfall jumping all over the map. Could you imagine NOLA at 11AM, Houston at 5pm, Mexico border at 5am and back to NOLA at 11AM? Not that any storm I can think of would have been like that, but that is worse case scenario if they don't slowly walk the landfall predictions. Of course the speed at which they walk them is directly related to time till landfall.
But either way, it isn't politics. It's not overrating to current data and throwing out everything that was previously predicted leading to large jumps back and forth in landfall projections.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I also would not be surprised by an S-shaped track. Before the high can slide east and push more to the north, it first has to build north of the system, which would temporarily block more of a northward movement. Where it ends up is still anyone's guess, but the prospect of some subtle changes in direction before landfall increases the possible error. Nobody should be congratulating themselves on predicting a more northward track until we see where landfall occurs.
The statements from earlier that "some weakening is expected in the next 24 hours" were accurate. The latest advisory indicates that some "fluctuations" are possible in the next 24 hours, so they are not indicating either weakening or strengthening, which is wise considering the unpredictable effects of an .
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Looking at the steering currents over the last few runs (6 hours or so) it looks like the high north of is slowly receeding northward which is what's allowing to move further to the east than was predicted last night.
Currents - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
The wind field on this beast is enormous! http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
How can the be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?
I have read this board for a long time and have found the information posted on this board is sometimes 24 hours ahead of the predictions.
I have a radical theory as to the reasons, politics.
This board has no political ties to government, we see the facts as they are and arent afraid to make a prediction. This position makes a profound difference in delivery of the facts as they are presented translating into absolute speed. This is how the shoul be, unteathered by politics, more lives would invariably be saved as delivery of information would increase.
Any thoughts?
Yup...quite a few.
It is really easy to second-guess . I have done it on the air a number of times, and on this board at times as well. But one little thing you have to remember is they are the ones responsible for issuing the warnings and watches. A hurricane watch (not warning) costs local government approx 1 million dollars for every mile of coastline in the watch. This is a huge responsibility that they have, and knowing the guys down there, they take it very seriously.
That said, the forecast method they use is actually the real issue here. Consensus model forecasting will generally give you better overall results over an entire season, but on a storm-by-storm basis it can lead to errors. In addition, you will never see make huge track changes at 72 hrs out, and rarely at 48...the will make gradual shifts in the track as the certainty increases (as they have done with this storm). Right or wrong, that is the most prduent method in my opinion.
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Jason Kelley
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I just posted a private message to Hugo on that exact topic.
Uh, my name is NOT "Hugo" 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Rita's tropical force windfield has expanded since this morning. However hurricane-force winds for now do not extend very far from the eye.
Waves and wind peaked around 4:30pm on buoy 42001, fairly near to the eye. Waves reached almost 40 feet.
Outflow to the south appears to be limited now, and while I am not certain, it appears to be due to wind shear. The upper level air divergence is no longer right over but to her NE.
It appears will go over the warm loop current eddy (the one to the west of the deep eddy that passed over) while completing the , tonight. She has already reorganized with a solid core and increased convection during the day, and has managed to keep a very low pressure during the , and impressive temp diff, instead of going up to 935mb or thereabouts, so I would expect additional strengthening the next 12 hours along with the reorganization. From the sat wv images, it appears that dry air did work its way around the edge during the day today but did not get into a farily large central core area.
It appears the edge of that high in TX moved NE over into ARK today, and just over the OK border now into KS. It seems like is pushing that other high that was over AL and GA north and east into the Carolinas. It seems to me that unless the H over TX moves further east at a faster rate, and not as far north, is going to track up along the east of it, more east of the existing TX/LA landfall, to somwhere between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge.
It seems lke that high is pivoting around a point near Dallas Ft Worth area. It if does that, and rolls into upper LA, upper MS, and the western edge of TN, I can see the storm sliding along the bottom of it, to just NE of a Galveston/Houston landfall.
This was confusing to me as neither of these points to the TX/LA landfall currently forecast. The way I have resolved this is I believe this track forecast is based on the high moving rather quickly over to the MS/TN valley, causing 's track to flatten out to the west before moving NW then NNW.
Rita has slowed down, so I believe that the key to the track will be the speed of the high, moving east, vs 's speed, and how far north the high goes as it moves east.
To understand that I guess you'd have to look further to the western and midwestern US, which I don't know how to do yet.
Sorry if this was already stated...I haven't had a chance to catch up and read the board yet.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Agreed... I have a friend in broadcast meteorology and he and I were discussing this very issue, that TPC needs to be given more latitude that the "normal" tone of bureaucracy and red tape that other agencies of the governement so enjoy...
That doesn't mean they should run out and hire a bunch of maverick dooms-day sayers, either; it's just that often times enough the intuitive approach to forecasting, particularly when so much is at stake, is the most prudent course.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Margie:
Your reasoning is sound enough... Essentially, the hurricane will take the path of least resistence. Unfortunately, one can not make a snap shot of the atmosphere and assume that 10 minutes (even) from now those parameters will persist. Not to insult you, but the dynamic of the synoptics precludes that as good wisdom.
Enter, the models...
Unfotunately, and it was stated earlier today, the large scale synoptic picture between the Atlantic SW Basin extending up into central and eastern NA has, for general appeal, changed little since . We note that with , the models were persistently left of the ultimate landfall location. The defining difference in the overall synoptics between the two events is the in 's case, it does seem that she's rattling around between higher heights - so it is a question of amplification over placement of blocking features.
For what it is worth...that's told me all along that the differences are a wash and may just cause the models to have similar biases. Whether right for the right reasons or right for the wrong reason, I think we can admit at this point that the models have also been displaying somewhat of a left bias; particularly evident when compared to the progs from 2 days ago. This in mind, it would surprise me that her north component will accelerate in time, tonight. We'll see.
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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
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Those interested in potential economic impacts of the storm (and the practical question of "Will I be able to get gas?"), may find this map interesting (I sure did):
Yes, the track is a bit out of date but the value of the map is so you can recalculate the potential economic damage as the track shifts.
Edited by BTfromAZ (Thu Sep 22 2005 07:23 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Wow - that is a great map! I had no idea the drilling practices were so pervasive - but I suppose it stands to reason (won't get into that in this forum).
How to: How did you paste this image into the body of your entry...? I tried using ALT- PRINT SCRN, which is the standard hot-keys, and it didn't work earlier..
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pcola
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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Actually, in looking at the map, the potential threat line on the north of the old track is close to the new track. It shows devastation for alot more.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Rita appears to have moved almost due west for the last hour and has also slowed down. This would be a rather lengthy "wobble"... the may be inducing some temporary erratic motion, or it may be starting to feel more the high to the NW that will want to steer it more westward for awhile. Until the trend persists, it is probably safer to assume the is the main culprit here.
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Humanriff
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 24
Loc: Davenport, FL
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I have been locked into this blog since Floyd in '99, about 2 months after I moved to Daytona from Colorado. I worked until they kicked everyone off the barrier island, boarded my house up the next day, and then realized I couldn't leave because all the evac routes were gridlock and they were telling people to stay if they hadn't already left because it was better to be in a house with no roof than a car. I had no clue how lucky I was that he decided to turn and just give us a little "brush off", which was pretty scary even so.
I've been glued to the NOAA visible and IR loops all day, with NOLA on my mind, among other things. I'm going to throw out a COMPLETELY unscientific set of observations and conclusion and let the experts here throw darts at me while we see what's really going to happen with .
To show how much I have learned from you guys and gals, I could tell as soon as I fired up the NOAA loops this morning that an eyewall replacement was going on. Couple of years ago an eyewall replacement to me would have probably meant cataract surgery. As has been pointed out several times today, by watching the forecasted track superimposed on the loops, it's obvious that has been "cheating" the all day by maybe 30-40 miles northeast every three hours.
Now my real question. As I look at the structure of the storm now, there appears to be a central area that is the storm proper, and then the outflow and surrounding "stuff" that is very extended in the northeast quadrant. When I overlay the ground radar on the visible, there are already some pretty severe squalls around Lake Ponchartrain. By using the very scientific method of measuring the "storm proper" with the cap of a pen lying on my desk, and assuming that this central area does not significantly change in size, the storm making landfall somewhere in the area between Lake Charles and Abbeville would put NOLA on the edge of this central area. I have read reports today that even 6 inches of rain could severely stress the repairs to the levees. Having lived through the tropical storm area of 5 hurricanes, 6 inches of rain is a joke, especially if it is already raining there now.
I hope this is not coming off as Chicken Littleism. I am merely taking my admittedly amateur level knowledge and drawing a certain conclusion. The best way to learn is to screw up, so please, if I am wrong, have at it. I want to be wrong on this, believe me. My tax dollars are at work there. 
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