funky
Weather Hobbyist
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official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.
It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then.
i'm sorry, i was watching channel 2 nbc out of houston. maybe they have their own "official track". either way, this thing has definitely changed course in the last hour. its moving due north, at most maybe 350 degrees.
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Post deleted by
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 03:49 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Hello Everyone, First time poster, long, long, long time flhurricane observer...
My resume in short (NWS employee for a year, NBC4 Weather employee for a year)
Taking pressure readings along the coast of Texas may be an arbitrary method of forecasting where the eye might eventually make landfall, but its one in which many of us have used for years...
Based upon current readings:
Gavelston Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)
Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport Barometer: 29.71" (1005.9 mb
High Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)
Lake Charles Regional Airport Barometer: 29.70" (1006.3 mb)
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)
I'll be monitoring this...but it looks like Gavelston's pressure drop is the lowest.
...Finally, someone doing some actual Meteorology... Pressure tendencies are a big factor along the East Coast during rapid cyclogenisis. They are used also when "bombogenisis" takes off and there are several dependable model camps predicting conflicting track guidance; i.e., pressure tendencies elucidate where the trough is carving... However, not sure how well this works with Tropical entitites... I would imagine, since everything in the atmosphere must ultimately and primarily respond to the PGF, particularly in a the ocean-boundary layered coupled model, they would still be very useful though. Great work!
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doug
Weather Analyst
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i would be alert in central coastal Louisiana...the radar loop from Lake Charles tells me it is moving North!!!!
I hope I am wrong!
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doug
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Margie
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Loc: Twin Cities
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I checked WWL and there are releases from AP on the overflow.
Said the water next to the levee is waist deep right now.
The report said that they are afraid the levee will breach if it keeps overflowing.
It is not the levees bordering the river or lake that caused the main failures during , and it is not those that are failing now; it is the canals that failed. There is some inherent structural problem with them and they will likely have to be reengineered.
You should see photos of what they looked like after .
Those are what are failing now. The main one is the Industrial Canal, which is what flooded lower 9th ward and into St Bernard Parish from the west at Chalmette (although St Bernard received flooding from two other sources; from the south from a levee bordering the MS river, ten miles long, which was gone after , and direct flooding from the GOM coming from the east).
Saw a quote that they were not expecting the flooding "this soon." Don't know why because NWS sent out the warnings. Flooding was more likely now than later when the storm moves to the east.
In Jackson County yesterday it was failure of the communications net, which is still mostly down anyway, which resulted in lack of general knowledge of last night's flooding from , coupled with a higher-than-normal high tide. I'll find out how everyone fared this weekend when I hear from by brother.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Navarre, FL
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Once again Margie is correct. No official track change. As we all know, these things can wobble left or right as they approach the coast. No exact landfall pinpoint is officially given for that reason- it's like trying to predict an individual's actions. No matter how well you think you know them, you don't. Storms have a mind of their own as well. You just never know for sure. It doesn't mean we won't try to figure it out, it just means that, in the end, we can't-they're gonna do what they're gonna do.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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typhoon_tip
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official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.
It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then.
i'm sorry, i was watching channel 2 nbc out of houston. maybe they have their own "official track". either way, this thing has definitely changed course in the last hour. its moving due north, at most maybe 350 degrees.
...I'm think I'm pretty much down with the word "wobble" for the rest of my life -ARGH! But, are you sure this isn't another attempt by the fluid dynamical gods to get you to yo-yo your course selection??? 
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typhoon_tip
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i would be alert in central coastal Louisiana...the radar loop from Lake Charles tells me it is moving North!!!!
I hope I am wrong!
Doug...Hi Also, there are currently tornado warnings flying for more than half of the geographical area of the Lousiana Delta... Can't forget these peripheral considerations...they are just as deadly.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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The radar loop posts 1hour of data...it may be a wobble but if it goes another hour it is more than that...that is what I would watch...
If it goes as indicated in the last hour NOLA gets slammed!
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doug
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Tidal levels over here in DESTIN (yes, that far away) are running 2-3' above normal and have been since yesterday. I was quite surprised at how far above normal they were yesterday; today I was expecting it, but its still coming up - although more slowly.
Closer to the storm it has to be MUCH worse.
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pryord1
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Navarre, FL
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I live on East Bay in Navarre. I can relate- I've been watching the tides for 2-3 days now and they are consistently higher and are moving E very swiftly. Winds are up to 25-30 mph sustained w/ gusts of 35 mph. I realize that this is probably not the forum for it but I would like to hear what Rick in Mobile is experiencing right now.
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The key to a good life is higher thought. Challenge yourself, push your personal limits and go for the brass ring!
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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My take on wobbles...look at hurricane ..it came in well east of the storm track in Navarre FL, track to it to Orange Beach AL..was the wrong? NO. It was the same type of wobble we are seeing here. would go due north for about 15 miles or so, then due west the same distance...it just so happened that on a north wobble it hit land, had it had another 10 or 15 miles it would have gone west again, and made landfall in AL...the motion was NW but it was heading due north at landfall..if this is the trend with , timing is everything and can move the actual landfall point east or west by 30 miles, without changing the overall forward NW motion....being I wantched due this on radar before taking my roof, i know it happens
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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typhoon_tip
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The radar loop posts 1hour of data...it may be a wobble but if it goes another hour it is more than that...that is what I would watch...
If it goes as indicated in the last hour NOLA gets slammed!
HOW? it would have to bend NE to even come close to NO.
I hope you ment LA and not NO as thjis storm is already way east of NO and the eye poses no danger to there at this time or in the dir its going now.
Yeah...I tend to agree with this Doug... I think you have to see a radical change in course heading to about 015-02 degrees from 0 (or N) and that is just not in the cards at this time...
However, NOLA has huge issues...The 9th ward (as reported by the incredible ethical FOX NEWS...) is "filling up", as they say. The levee that protects that area has failed! Goes to show you had tenuous that whole scenario is... The get 1 foot of storm surge up in that inlet to Lake P. and the hydrostatic pressure is too much for the Army Corp of Engineers makeshit design...
In other words, they may not need to be directly whacked to get the noteriety of being directly impacted.. Because, the levee may not have failed without this new onslaught... Just something to think about...
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rmcinorlando
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Ralphfl - If I remember right, took a quick right hand turn and came across to hit Orlando instead of the projected path to Tampa. There is no reason to be so harsh when someone states their own opinion. As I stated yesterday, I really enjoy this site until you and a couple of others start posting. The tone of your posts are indicative of someone with extreme anger management issues. Please try to keep your tone down.....I am sure there are others who would appreciate it.
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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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We here in Southern Alabama are also under a tornado warning until 6:00 p.m. this evening. The Causeway was becoming overcome with water this morning on my way in to work. The wind is up there also. At least for those of us driving SUVs and such. My parents are off of Dog River and they already had half their huge yard under water this morning. Downstairs from where I work (one-half block off of Water Street) they have sand bags in place. This storm is affecting so many people.
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Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama
Weather Watcher
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jth
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Good grief Ralph. Doug even said specifically in his post that maybe it would hit central LA. If it does hit central LA, NO will be hit very hard. Not with hurricane force winds, but rain and some additional surge. You either need anger management classes or need to learn how to respect other opinions.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Post deleted by
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 23 2005 04:21 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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DIRECTION N-NNW....HEADING FOR THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHARLES. IF SHE DECIDES TO MAINTAIN THIS "WOBBLE".....THEN WHAT CAN PREVENT HER FROM HEADING TO BATON ROUGE...OR...POINTS EAST?
HOPEFULLY IT'S A WOBBLE
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jth
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And you feel it is your duty to chastise those with opinions?
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