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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
TD 20 Forms in the Caribbean, TD 19 Out at Sea
      #57465 - Thu Sep 29 2005 07:20 AM

Saturday 11AM Update
The tropical disturbance in the northwest Caribbean has finally become organized enough to be classified as TD 20. Recon will be in the depression later today, while tropical storm warnings are now up for a portion of the Yucutan. Northern Mexico and southern Texas are under the gun in 3-4 days from this one. Meanwhile, TD 19 continues to try to become better organized and has a brief window of opportunity to become a tropical storm. It should remain out at sea.

TD 20


Friday PM Update
A tropical disturbance to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has become the season's 19th tropical depression. Forecast motion is generally to the north-northwest over the next five days, keeping this one well out to sea. Interesting, it is the furthest east developing system thus far this season.

TD 19


Elsewhere, the disturbance in the NW Caribbean is only slightly better organized than yesterday, the makings of a system about three days down the line to the NE of the Bahamas are coming together along 60W, and a hybrid-type system appears to be forming near 25N/25W. While there is nothing classified out there to track right now, there are 4 areas of active interest for potential development over the next 5 days. Quite possible 2 or 3 of these could develop, so stay tuned.

Original Update
The area talked about earlier in the week is still disorganized but has a chance to develop over the next few days. The Hurricane Hunters are en route to the disturbance this morning and afternoon. It's still moving generally westward, and if it were to develop, it would likely affect the Yucatan area and then enter the Southwestern Gulf, most likely continuing on to mainland Mexico.



Chances for tropical development of the wave 99L in the Western Caribbean in the next two days.
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*------------]



There is another area just off the coast of Louisiana, but that is even less likely to form.

Chances for tropical development of the disturbance off the coast of Louisiana.
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]



Beyond that, another long clump of storms from Northeast Cuba to north of the Bahamas, but isn't organized enough to even consider at the moment, but we'll watch it over the next several days as well as another wave east of the Leeward Islands that has almost no chance of development right now.

So, nothing immediate, but plenty to watch.

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

TD 19


TD 20

Animated model plot of TD 20

Edited by Clark (Sat Oct 01 2005 11:01 AM)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #57466 - Thu Sep 29 2005 09:15 AM

Any news on the AM Recon flight??

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: Fletch]
      #57467 - Thu Sep 29 2005 09:36 AM

Last I saw was scheduled for 1500 Zulu (11am EDST)

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: Wingman51]
      #57468 - Thu Sep 29 2005 09:50 AM

The last TWO said that a plane would be out there "early this afternoon", if necessary. It appears that convection has consolidated somewhat closer to the apparent center of the system, so they may actually send the plane out there this time if that convection maintains itself over the next couple of hours.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: MikeC]
      #57469 - Thu Sep 29 2005 10:11 AM

The local mets in Tampa have all alluded to a"tropical wave" effecting the area in mid week. Pray tell what is it?
There does seem to be some increase in convection around what could be a low near 22n/57w and that seems to be on a westward drift..
In fact that may be a better focus for Stan than the carribean now that I watch it for a while...any thoughts?

--------------------
doug


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57470 - Thu Sep 29 2005 10:31 AM

I'd give this thing higher than a "3" probability of forming. More like a 6.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: SirCane]
      #57471 - Thu Sep 29 2005 11:00 AM

I agree. From what I have seen this year, once a LLC gets going, in general they seem to be pretty tenacious, even with day after day of shear ripping convection apart, or even when it has had a chance to be organized, but shear then pulls the upper levels partially to the side and the LLC is somewhat (or even mostly) exposed.

Nature has her own schedule and she's not as impatient as us, so the waiting game continues. It's almost into the area of low shear, so by tonight or tomorrow it ought to get its opportunity to organize, and if things don't come together then, that is probably that.

One good thing is that it looks like the probabilites lean towards a Yucatan or Tex Mex directon. One thing we really don't want for the remainder of this year is a system coming up north from the Carribean from the western end of Cuba (either rounding it as Camille did, or going straight over), hitting the loop current N of Cuba, and then going N to hit the very deep pool of the loop current that remains S of LA.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: SirCane]
      #57472 - Thu Sep 29 2005 11:01 AM

Convection continues to develop near the presumed center of 99L, so the system may be getting closer to becoming a depression. The visible loop also hints at some sort of circulation further north, to the south of Cuba around 21N, 80W. I'm not sure what significance that may have.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57473 - Thu Sep 29 2005 11:35 AM

Recon plane is on the way:

000
URNT11 KNHC 291514
97779 15004 50309 86500 67000 34018 64752 /8039
RMK AF307 01HHA INVEST OB 01


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57474 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:03 PM

Re: The Mets in Tampa...
I have not been watching the news much lately. So, they are saying an area of Low pressure will be affecting the area? Tampa/St. Pete???
That would be a real bummer, we finally got Bucs tickets for this weekend, Hope the weather holds off! We have been really lucky this year(knock on wood) Hope it stays that way for everyone for the rest of the season!
I love this board. I have learned so much!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: sara33]
      #57475 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:10 PM

i dont see this system developing into anything within the next couple of days--the shear is increasing, and while the LLC is near Central America, the mid level rotation is near Cuba

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: sara33]
      #57477 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:44 PM

Sara: what they said exactly is "moisture from a tropical wave" will increase chances of precip. in the middle of next week. I think that is about 6 days out. I am just not sure what system they may be thinking could do that; and that if it is a wave now it may not be in 6 days...

--------------------
doug


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57478 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:51 PM

Thanks Doug!

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: sara33]
      #57479 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:53 PM

just ran thru the Globals and the NOGAPS and the UKMET do show increased low pressure and even some development in the W Carib or close to the peninsula in 132-144 hrs.
None of the globals do much with anything currently in the visible sat pics.
Hope these models are wrong as I'm on vacation next week.

--------------------
doug


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57480 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:56 PM

The most interesting area in the tropics right now is the circulation at 21N/58W (Doug mentioned) that is moving toward the west at about 10 kts. Convection is beginning to fire again, and this has east coast written all over it in about 5 days, maybe six. WIth the building ridge and the EPAC active (mjo) moving east, I think this one will be the talk early next week. Cheers!!

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57481 - Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 PM

Well, Let's see . . . I have a Bahamas cruise next Thurs day for 4 days . . . Humm . . . Stan?? Tammy??? Just My luck. LOL

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: Steve H1]
      #57482 - Thu Sep 29 2005 01:04 PM

if the Carribean system will go it will have to come together around 17n and 82w...that seems to be where a mid level circulation is for sure and possibly a LLC too.

--------------------
doug


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57483 - Thu Sep 29 2005 01:39 PM

Expect a low-level circulation to form, if it has not done so already, near the mid-level center forming at 19N/81W sometime later today. Recon isn't quite that far south -- dropsonde report at about 21N -- but may well find something down there if it hangs around long enough. The weak circulation near 17.5N/82W is already starting to become entrained into the larger system consolidating further to the NE.

If the trough over the US does not extend far enough to the south, a general west-northwest motion is likely over the next few days. The upper low to the north of the storm has moved to a substantial distance away to more than likely be aiding the storm's outflow rather than shearing it or stealing mid-level energy from the wave. Upper-level conditions are projected to be favorable as the storm moves toward the WNW with development becoming likely the longer the organization of the system continues.

The feature further to the E will have to be watched, but this one in the Caribbean is the main game in town for another couple of days.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: doug]
      #57484 - Thu Sep 29 2005 01:47 PM

that batch of convection/sfc trough being enhanced by an upper low near 23/57 may also be the precursor thing i was talking about last night. the little low being masked by an upper low out near 29/71 also may be the thing that'll get low pressure started. later ukmet runs favor the thing doug is talking about... NOGAPS still sees my feature today but not as well. either or, the pattern wants there to be a storm approaching the east coast next week.
i'm guessing recon has been through the low in the nw caribbean already, and no vortex. it's probably still too broad. even though convection is firing near the center, it keeps migrating northward away from the formative system. overall the last three or four days it has slowly but consistently improved, so pretty soon it should cross the threshold and become a classified system. been saying that for two days now, but the basic synoptic reasoning for it hasn't changed in that time.
headline for this thread could just as easily have been 'waiting on the tropics.'
HF 1747z29september

well, clark just straightened that out. i was guessing recon had already run through, but that was presumptuous. could somebody give me a link to that site that plots the recon obs? -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 29 2005 01:49 PM)


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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Tropic Watch [Re: Wingman51]
      #57485 - Thu Sep 29 2005 01:56 PM

Well..... you might be o.k. - if the time frame they mention holds.

from Tampa area forescast
BY TUESDAY...GFS SHOWS A SEPARATE EASTERLY WAVE MOVING UNDERNEATH
THE STRONG 500 MB RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...
EVENTUALLY SLOWING DOWN AND CUTTING OFF IN THE EASTERN GULF TUE
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A GRADUAL
RETURN OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND REDUCE THE SURFACE WINDS AS IT
INTERRUPTS THE PACE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE MID
ATLANTIC HIGH...WHICH BY THIS TIME WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE COAST.

&&

from Miami/ South Florida area forecast
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
FLORIDA/BAHAMAS AND THE CARIBBEAN EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME
MODELS EVEN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING. FOLLOWED MEX GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT COULD BECOME WETTER DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THIS PLAYS OUT.

&&


Good Luck!


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