teal61
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
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Wow, eclipse is over and boom a huge explosion of convection near 99l. Looks even like some banding features are developing. Will this be the beginning of TD 20 ?
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ParrishNStPeteFL
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Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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Quote:
Wow, eclipse is over and boom a huge explosion of convection near 99l. Looks even like some banding features are developing. Will this be the beginning of TD 20 ?
Speaking of eclipeses, there are actually two this month (October) the next one is supposed to be near the middle of the month. I wonder how the long term tropical outlook for the next two weeks will evolve. Of course there is also the Mars turning retrograde, and pulling back from the earth. I have a fascination with how the astronomical and planetary events have seemed to actually effect the intense and unpredicatable weather lately. Through out the season, and the year really, there have been some unpreceidented astronomical events (mind you im not talkin horoscopes here), planetary alignments, mars being closer to the earth than it has been in what they say is about 60,00 years, similar unusual activity has been occuring all year. Thoughts are welcome.
I also am very delighted to be able to participate in this forum, I have learned a lot about understanding the lingo and sats. I really enjoy watching the various storms personalities...they are each so unique/ One thing I noticed, however, when seeing the posts regarding the carribean system that has remaind the same for several days, so did a few of the other intense systems we have seen this year. 
oppss missed a few 0's it should have been 60,000,000,000 years since mars has been this close to the earth. 
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
Edited by ParrishNStPeteFL (Sat Oct 01 2005 09:04 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I would like to refer you to the storm forums page where there is a thread under forecast lounge that is discussing the astronomical influences on the weather. I think you would enjoy it. And could add your thoughts as well!
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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TDW
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 37
Loc: Mobile, AL
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regarding the distances between Mars and Earth - I believe the closest approach was in 2003 and it was around the closest in 60,000 years. About every 26 months the Earth and Mars are on the same side of the sun. The next time Mars is closer than 2003 is 2287 with an even closer approach in 2729.
I'm not sure how much affect Mars has on systems on earth. The tidal force of Mars is about 1 million times less than the tidal force of the moon (even with Mars at its closest).
I saw a recent paper that mentions that meteor dust may have a significant infulence of weather patterns. It seems a 33 foot wide meteor last year was charted as it burned up in the atmosphere. It left 2.2 million pounds of dust in the atmosphere.
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"It's time to see the world
It's time to kiss a girl
It's time to cross the wild meridian"
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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
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Quote:
regarding the distances between Mars and Earth - I believe the closest approach was in 2003 and it was around the closest in 60,000 years. About every 26 months the Earth and Mars are on the same side of the sun. The next time Mars is closer than 2003 is 2287 with an even closer approach in 2729.
I'm not sure how much affect Mars has on systems on earth. The tidal force of Mars is about 1 million times less than the tidal force of the moon (even with Mars at its closest).
I saw a recent paper that mentions that meteor dust may have a significant infulence of weather patterns. It seems a 33 foot wide meteor last year was charted as it burned up in the atmosphere. It left 2.2 million pounds of dust in the atmosphere.
I appreciate all the feedback and that info...I have much to learn, always will.. 
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The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Oh my gosh I was right yest aft - 99L is headed for GOM according to 5:30pm update and latest sat images. But I did think the center of circ was further N than it turned out to be. But happily it won't hit the loop current; instead to continue to go west into all that dry air. I think recon would find a TD. Probably , Emily, , and blew the recon budget for 2005.
Note -- if you can check out a sat image of typhoon Longwang, check it out...it is similar in strength right now to what was before she hit LA, and also has the same large eye, although it seems more compact than .
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Oct 01 2005 10:30 AM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I could easily be wrong, but, I don't think the invest is together enough to be certain where the center of circulation is unless they send a recon. But, maybe it will not develope any further.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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TD 20 has developed from 99L, according to website.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I could easily be wrong, but, I don't think the invest is together enough to be certain where the center of circulation is unless they send a recon. But, maybe it will not develope any further.
I think the key criteria is whether it has a well-defined center of circ (it has a center of circ), because when I looked this morning, winds at buoy 42056 (centered at about 19.9N 85.0W) peaked at 25 kts when 99L slid by to the south last night, going from ENE to E to ESE. It looks like it is going past the buoy to the NW because winds are at 100deg (and winds have been increasing a little over the past hour, right now up to 23 kts) and have stayed a little higher than when they were going ENE. So the winds are certainly good enough. It looks like this was the deciding factor for the this morning:
"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED"
Edit -- so it seems like calls them a little earlier than , but I haven't been doing this for very long, only a couple months.
So it if keeps going like this it is going to go right from a TD to a TS.
This is what I thought was going to happen, but like four days ago! But going over the warm Carribean water, I figured it would get to a TS sooner or later.
NHC TPC, at 10am, just put TD 20 up on their home page; also saw announcement on at 10am.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Oct 01 2005 11:03 AM)
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Looks like it is a race to see which system can claim the name Stan first. TD 19 is running out of time and may not even make it to tropical storm status. It doesn't look that great on satellite at the moment. TD 20 also has a limited window in the short-term, though it appears it will have another opportunity in the Gulf in a couple of days. Most of the model guidance seems to keep this system well south of the Texas/Mexico border, but things could obviously change.
Interesting to read in the discussion for TD 20 that frictional convergence over land may actually help the currently broad circulation tighten up, allowing it to strengthen more quickly over the Bay of Campeche when it re-emerges. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sat Oct 01 2005 11:12 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The discussion was funny! "THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS"
True that also mentions favorable outflow (really favorable!), low wind shear, and warm SSTs, once TD#20 gets into the GOM...but consider that there is really dry air there right now, and deep water temps not as favorable for a slow-moving storm. The best water is what it has been moving over right now. Even with lesson learned from about the importance of very good outlfow, it would be surprising if this thing could make it up to Cat 2 before landfall in Mex.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
The discussion was funny! "THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS"
True that also mentions favorable outflow (really favorable!), low wind shear, and warm SSTs, once TD#20 gets into the GOM...but consider that there is really dry air there right now, and deep water temps not as favorable for a slow-moving storm. The best water is what it has been moving over right now. Even with lesson learned from about the importance of very good outlfow, it would be surprising if this thing could make it up to Cat 2 before landfall in Mex.
So, you think Mexico? Granted, both global and tropical based model camps suggest so and that is also the HPC solution... But, I find it intriguing that the models have had a left track bias to and subsequently , too. This is important to me because both hurricanes developed more earnestly once the mid/U/A ridging over the E 1/3 of NA flexed into greater amplification. We see in the global based models over the last few days, a prediction for another positive anomaly slated to emerge over the lower Ohio Valley and spanning the greater aspect of the easter 1/3 of the contiguous US. In concernt, up underneath the tropical disturbance in question is finally labled a depression.
If there is any skill to using analog predictive tools this seasons behavior as a whole makes one weary of latching onto the left track. It is conceivable to me that we will have a slow moving system that averages a "slight" N component along its track, which integrated over time might mean that S Texas is not off the hook. Granted, no one has claimed that can't happen - this is by no mean argumentative - just to enlighten to another possibility, one that I believe has merti based on trends this later summer and autumn.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well trying to follow what you're saying -- I don't see how, with all the factors that play into increasing intensity, you can single out the ridging as being of special significance, for and . Then, you didn't explain how that translates into a change in the track to the right of the model consensus.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Quote:
Well trying to follow what you're saying -- I don't see how, with all the factors that play into increasing intensity, you can single out the ridging as being of special significance, for and . Then, you didn't explain how that translates into a change in the track to the right of the model consensus.
The point I was making is pattern similarities... For whatever reason (and I leave that up to your keen mind to speculate) the pattern we've seen so persistently during this summer is statistically concurrent with the creation and movement through the GOM of these tropical disturbances...
Can't knock consistency...
It may indeed be merely coincidence but...here we are again with that same old pattern and a yet again, another GOM (or appr region) disturbance.
Trends are Meteorology 101 when it comes to track reasoning (not just for tropical systems, for all "modeled" atmospheric phenomenon)
Having said all that, 'What about the ridge substantiates more intensity'? I could speculate and suggest that it temporarily weakens whatever westerly shearing components between 20 and 30N latittude, which might prevail in the absence of such ridge amplification, but the subject needs more study. As far as 'Why a N component', my feeling in the matter is that the heights over the data sparse region of Old Mexico may have been and still are tending to be higher than models are seeing - again, date to corroborate this hypothesis? If so, the models would indeed assume a left bias, which is then corrected for in the shorter terms only at such times as a the N adjustments begin to verify and the data makes into subsequent (i.e., shorter lead-time) model runs.
In any event, I would not be surprised that just as other system in the GOM this late summer and autumn have behaved, this system ends up a little N of current thinking beyond 60 hours. Especially considering that the 11am advisory has repositioned the system a farther N of the previous estimate; a more N starting point will need to be conserved down the line.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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well i'm in the middle. it looks like a lot of the guidance they're going off of is the dynamic stuff that only works well for weaklings, 'cause the globals are still barely showing the system and naturally stuff weak systems into mexico. there haven't been any significant systems in that part of the gulf for better than a month, so oceanic heat content won't be a problem. as for the dry air mass... that is slowly being converted by its environment into something less hurricane-hostile. if y'all remember, wasn't exactly dealing with a moist airmass either just after it crossed florida, and it spun up anyway.
the current track is feasible if the system does little strengthening and moves as quickly as indicated. it's more likely that a stronger, more trough-responsive system will occur if it moves a little slower or strengthens more than indicated, and that would favor it coming further north. granted i still see the greatest likelihood of it going into ne mexico and retracing emily's path earlier this year, but if i was in texas i wouldn't be blowing this little fellow off.
last night i was thinking 'well, the caribbean thing is just about out of time, and the east atlantic feature has trumped it'. this morning the east atlantic depression blew apart and is hard to discern with all the chaotic cloud motions nearby (llc appears to be moving north, mlc from the convective blow up stuck in the , outflow boundaries from the monsoon trough-like feature to the west blowing into it from that side, and northward bursts of wind/convection riding up the east side like little comets). and then of course the caribbean system finally crossed the threshold. it should be a postulate that i can think something for days, have it not materialize, finally give in, and have that outcome immediately occur.
anyhow, watching the disturbed weather near bermuda and to the south slowly moving closer together. believe the trigger for a westward-running system is in that somewhere. modeling has pretty much backed down in favor of another system that sort of develops near the florida straits and sits near florida/eastern gulf looking only quasi tropical (some of the globals have another caribbean feature, some just show that familiar easterly wave come running in from the east). thing is, they've all got something wrong: TD 20 appears to be on course to develop into a significant tropical system in the western gulf, and none are showing the resultant feedback into the regional synoptic pattern. the upper low which was over florida earlier in the week, has moved into the western atlantic, and is now moving back... should deepen some if the tropical cyclone forces ridging to the southwest. amplify that, and the ridging to the east will amplify as well. and that's where our pattern-forced feature could possibly be.
it's a quirk i'll mention just because it could be one of the odder tracks you'll ever see if it develops.. but the hybrid type drill-down system that is moving west from the area near the canaries continues to become better defined... and modeling take it straight across the atlantic at that latitude to near bermuda late next week... where it appears to either set up to recurve or get blocked by high pressure again (maybe ready for another westward jog). it would be unusual to see a long westward track in the subtropics like that, so keeping an eye on this odd possibility. october is usually the month that produces odd-track systems (when they get repeatedly caught and released by mid-latitude shortwaves and such).
HF 1645z01october
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
well i'm in the middle. it looks like a lot of the guidance they're going off of is the dynamic stuff that only works well for weaklings, 'cause the globals are still barely showing the system and naturally stuff weak systems into mexico. there haven't been any significant systems in that part of the gulf for better than a month, so oceanic heat content won't be a problem. as for the dry air mass... that is slowly being converted by its environment into something less hurricane-hostile. if y'all remember, wasn't exactly dealing with a moist airmass either just after it crossed florida, and it spun up anyway.
HF 1645z01october
Interesting thoughts...I agree with many of them..
I am also interested in what your thoughts are on l moisture content over the Yucatan. It has been noted in years past that tropical disturbances in their formulative stages have demonstrated better survival during trek near that land mass, particularly when the year has been wetter than normal. Obviously, we know this is because rich l moisture certainly does influence rate of decay rates for convection near the cores of these systems as they cross that land mass.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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...Also, interesting feature near 22N/61W... You've probably commented on this feature already but it does seem to be generating better convection near the center of obvious rotational axis.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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As always you have such good info, thanks much.
Regarding just one thing, "Katrina wasn't exactly dealing with a moist airmass either just after it crossed florida, and it spun up anyway" -- she really struggled with that dry air, and didn't really spin up until out of it, in spite of other favorable conditions.
Remember several folks here were sure would "blow up" as soon as she got off the western FL coast. Instead she really struggled, tenaciously hanging onto each pressure drop, for several days, but not able to get beyond Cat 2, in spite of the lower pressure, due mainly to dry air, and not until she got over the loop current was she able to strengthen enough to fight off the dry air and develop into a major hurricane. There is no loop current in the SW GOM, even with many other favorable conditions. The forecast path is very similar to Emily's for the portion over the Yucatan, and that took a lot out of Emily, which I believe hit as a solid Cat 3, but barely made it back up to Cat 3 at landfall in Mex. If this system goes faster after leaving the Yucatan, less time to spin up; if it goes slower, cooler water could well up and cap strengthening.
BTW a lot of convection blowup in the last couple hours for TD20. Since windspeed has increased back to 25kts and remained steady at buoy 42056, while the wind dir has not changed much (system is nearly stationary?), if they find winds at 35 kts at the center, could we be seeing Stan shortly with the recon?
Looking at the visual sat images, the shear pattern is a little weird (some areas of the storm have shear to the N, and some to the S). Can someone provide some general info about upper level winds, outflow, and shear above tropical storms/hurricanes.
well, i don't call the pressure falling from 985mb down to 950-ish with dry air intruding 'struggling', but yeah, it didn't really go off the deep end until the subsidence stream let up. as for upwelling slowing strengthening... uh, it would have to stall for days. and days. warm water column in the southern gulf is still pretty deep. Opal barely moved for two days down there about ten years ago and wasn't any poorer for it. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 01 2005 03:32 PM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Agree with the model mess, they're not picking up the details because things are slowly evolving, and there are day-to-day changes. Models at 12Z now show a large area of low pressure from NE Florida throughout the entire GOM, with interspersed areas of lower pressure. They may focus in better in the next couple of days, or not. Still watching the convoluted area from Bermuda and south. Think something will eventually come of this, but exactly when and where to not easy. Seems TD 20 should catch fire, but I thought it would have happened by now. EPAC development should be translating to Atlantic development, but thought that would have started to occur already. A slow evolution right now, but things may change as soon as the ridge settles in. Cheers!!
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html
Just clicked on the above satellite and I am wondering if anyone can tell me how fast that cold front is coming down from the Northwest in comparison to the forward speed and slow formation of the TD20. Is this going to influence the direction of the TD20 or will they pass in the night as strangers?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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