emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Thank You Ron!
My hard drive crashed and I lost all my links. Could someone post the link to the page that has the computer models? I have the globals but I want the one, (can't remember the site) that links you to the globals. It says something like Show me the Global models please...LOL! It has the drop down menu that you pick the invest number. Does anyone have any clue as to what I'm talking about...rofl!
Thank You,
Jackie
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twizted sizter
Weather Guru
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Posts: 184
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Nogaps is showing a trip around the Gulf with the Bahamas system as well.
Modeling has been fairly consistent with activity for Fl for 2-3 days now...whether it's rainmakers or more remains to be seen but a Bear Watch is order for both coasts at the least this week.
Look at the ...a chorus line of storms crossing the W coast of Fl...as well as a rather strong one at 114 hrs.
Nothing will surprise me after this season...heck after last season.
Any mets have a take?
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Susan in Jupiter, FL
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 18
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Don't know if this is the exact one you are looking for........
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
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Susan in Jupiter, FL Survived:
Andrew, Irene, Charley, Francis,
Ivan, Jeanne, Katrina, Wilma
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Ever since yesterday morning I've beem having trouble trying to get web site loaded. Any alternate URLs? PM me if you like.
I thought I did notice there was some rotation late yesterday evening, in that long line of convection, east of the Bahamas, but wasn't sure. Was going to post here, but this site wasn't coming up either.
Looks like Stan came through with all that LLC intact, and convection started blooming just as soon as the center exited the coast into that coastal area with the deep warm water (until about 94W?).
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Exactly what I was looking for. Thank You!
Here's what I found on HPC disco:
"TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS IDEA... BRINGING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TRACK OF THIS FEATURE BY
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE EVENTUAL
AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN TROF. THE IS NOT USUALLY THE
BEST MODEL FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS... BUT THERE IS REASONABLE
CONSENSUS THAT THE ERN TROF WILL EXERT LESS INFLUENCE THAN FCST BY
GFS RUNS... KEEPING THE TROPICAL FEATURE FARTHER SWWD. THEREFORE
THE 00Z /06Z COMPROMISE LEANS MORE IN THE
DIRECTION."
That's just great. I'm sick of the storms. When they say a Well defined system, do they mean well defined as it goes to GOM or well defined after it gets there? That makes a big difference for FL.
Thanks!
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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im not sure it matters since the models seem to think it is gonna turn around and head right back to us, so we either get it coming or going or both 
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Which system are you all talking about? I am on the West coast of Fl..St. Petersburg. Also, could you post the link to the models you are looking at?
Thanks everyone.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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this system is still days out and things could change, but here is the link
one of them anyway
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
most models and other info can be found on this site on the fron page at the bottom
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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Thanks Pam
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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2. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 04/1500Z A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 02IIA CYCLONE
C. 04/1330Z C. 05/0230Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W D. 24.0N 81.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
new recon set to go tomorrow
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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radar out of Cancun, MX (attached)
It is from yesterday evening, but the idea is to show how much better organized Stan is now compared to when it made landfall yesterday morning.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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From NWS discussion at 10 am for Eact Central Fl 
WE ARE MUCH MORE
INTERESTED IN AN UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...MOVING WEST. A CIRCULATION CAN EASILY BE DISCERNED IN THE
INFRARED SAT IMAGERY BUT THIS IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AT 250 MB.
THERE IS NO CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN INVERTED
TROUGH. NONETHELESS...THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TUE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...CAUSING MINOR BEACH EROSION
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. SO WILL ISSUE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS
AFTN TO TAKE EFFECT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HIGH
TIDE CYCLES. NEXT HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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There is some very intense convection being generated by Stan at the moment. The center is somewhere underneath the , but I don't know exactly where. It is in an environment where rapid intensification is possible. It'll be interesting to see what the next recon plane shows.
The disturbed weather east of the Bahamas still doesn't look very tropical at the moment. Whether or not the upper-level winds become more favorable or not as it gets closer to the coast depends partially on what happens with Stan. If Stan becomes stronger than anticipated and/or moves slower than anticipated, both of which are possible, then the outflow from Stan could cause a greater amount of shear to the east.
The system classified as 91L looks like a nice, compact system right now, but the latest SHIPS output predicts doom for it rather quickly, so it may never amount to anything.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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2. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 04/1500Z A. 05/0600,1200Z
B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 02IIA CYCLONE
C. 04/1330Z C. 05/0230Z
D. 24.0N 78.0W D. 24.0N 81.0W
E. 04/1430Z TO 04/2000Z E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Could someone explain line D. to me. Isn't the second part almost on the coast. Seems like they could just look up..LOL! I would think that crossing Fl would change everything anyway. Why not wait till it's in the GOM. Am I reading it incorrectly?
Thanks.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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the second part is SE of the Keys
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Duhh. Sorry about that. Poor Keys. I hope they don't get hit again. Not only that but things have gone down hill everytime they got hit this year.
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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The navy web site is putting 92L a tropical deppression with 30 knots.
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Posts: 138
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Where do you see that?....I just looked, it is still 92L, if it were a TD they would list it as 'noname'....
MM
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Posts: 138
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Both are in the Atlantic before crossing into the GOM...
Not sure what you mean about waiting???
MM
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