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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Models and other things [Re: emackl]
      #57656 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:30 PM

This would be why i am not an expert lmao i have nooooo idea


--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Models and other things [Re: emackl]
      #57657 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:37 PM

23N 70W is where 92L is

And I'm just seeing something Near PR, I'm counting it as part of 92L which may or may not be accurate... (And I could be seeing things.... so don't mind me)

21N 42W is where former TD19 is


-mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
Re: Models and other things [Re: NewWatcher]
      #57658 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:40 PM

from the NHC discussion:

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N70W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 21N TO 30N DRIFTING WEST. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 63W AND 73W. HIGHER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 25N70W LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH...

anybody have any asprin.....


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Models and other things [Re: emackl]
      #57659 - Mon Oct 03 2005 03:42 PM

The most obvious low-level turning I can find on the VIS is near 23N/75W, just east of George Town in the Bahamas, where the winds have come around to the NNE. This is well-removed from the convection further east, though. It's tough to tell if there is a surface circulation further east from there, since you have clouds at different levels moving in different directions, thanks to the mid-level circulation around 25N, 70W.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Stan [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57660 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:11 PM

Stan really likes the Bay of Campeche so far... the latest IR has cloud tops approaching -90C (!). The wind field continues to be atypical, with the max flight-level winds so far at 41 knots, but the max surface wind from the dropsondes at 52 knots.

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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: NewWatcher]
      #57661 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:27 PM

And does anyone know what exactly is coming back at us(live in St. Pete) i.e. disturbance, or TD or what? Or too early to tell?

--------------------
The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug


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oil trader
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 27
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57662 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:28 PM

Anyone has already figured out the probabilities of 92L becoming a Hurricane when it gets the GOM?

Thanks


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: ParrishNStPeteFL]
      #57663 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:34 PM

I was wondering the same thing re: St. Pete...I don't like the early models. Anyone have any clue about the intensity..or the accuracy of these models.I know it's early...Thanks!

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D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 48
Loc: The Burg < FL
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: sara33]
      #57664 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:38 PM

its waaaaaaaaay to early to tell altho i live in st. pete and our time is due for sum massive system .. i wouldnt put much into any model past 2 or 3 days tops

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Stan [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57665 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:45 PM

Because of the shallow continental shelf to the west and north of the Yucatan, the warm water there is deep...but past the shelf in the Bay of Campeche, while SSTs are warm, there is no deep warm water. The longer Stan remains stationary, since other conditions are expected to remain favorable, the longer Stan will intensify. And even if Stan intensifies more than currently anticipated, if the subsequent movement west is slow as predicted, then the cooler deep water will probably not support maintaining that intensity through to landfall. In fact the predicted SW path takes Stan over a pool of cooler water in the BOC with less than 10kcal/cm sq.

Having said that, the NHC forecast is for continued intensification right up until landfall, but only just to solid Cat 1. Just shows what do I know? I'd expect a more rapid intensification with pressure going down to 980-985 range today, but then back up to around 990 before landfall.

At least I was mollified to learn later that the entire time Rita's intensity was increasing, she was over the loop current, and I just didn't have a good mental visual on where that current was located (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17041).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: sara33]
      #57666 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:47 PM

It sounds like you're referring to the tropical models (BAMM, BAMD, LBAR, A98E), a graphical depiction of which is on the flhurricane.com front page (Skeetobite's map, I believe). If so, I've pasted the latest run below, which also shows the SHPS and Decay-SHPS intensity guidance, but take those with a huge grain of salt. In addition to potential inaccuracies of the models' handling of systems, those runs assume that a 30kt depression centered at 23.3/75.1 already exists. That obviously is not the case. Even if an organized warm-core system develops (a big "if"), the location of it and its initial intensity likely will greatly change the output from the tropical models.

As for other models, which of course also have limitations but several of which are programmed to attempt to predict the genesis of systems, look back at the last few pages; other users have posted links to several of them.

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20051003 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051003 1800 051004 0600 051004 1800 051005 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.1W 23.0N 76.5W 23.2N 77.8W 23.9N 79.1W
BAMM 23.3N 75.1W 23.3N 77.0W 23.6N 78.6W 24.4N 80.1W
A98E 23.3N 75.1W 23.5N 77.4W 23.7N 79.2W 24.2N 80.7W
LBAR 23.3N 75.1W 23.4N 77.0W 23.7N 79.0W 24.4N 81.2W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 43KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051005 1800 051006 1800 051007 1800 051008 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 80.4W 28.6N 83.3W 31.5N 84.0W 37.6N 74.0W
BAMM 25.6N 81.4W 28.4N 83.7W 30.0N 85.0W 32.6N 80.7W
A98E 25.3N 81.9W 27.4N 83.0W 30.3N 82.3W 35.5N 73.7W
LBAR 25.0N 83.3W 27.1N 86.3W 28.8N 88.4W 32.5N 86.0W
SHIP 60KTS 73KTS 80KTS 71KTS
DSHP 55KTS 65KTS 57KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 75.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 72.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 22.7N LONM24 = 68.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Brad in Miami]
      #57667 - Mon Oct 03 2005 04:50 PM

Thanks so much! Still learning soo much from you all.

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Sheeper
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 62
Loc: Vero Beach, FL
Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #57668 - Mon Oct 03 2005 05:03 PM

folks, i just returned from cooridinating a medical strike team thru Biloxi and Pass Christian. the damage is amazing

take a look at http://seldes.net/images/10-3-2005-19.jpg if you ever wonder about the power of these storms. The destroyed house in the link was made out of rebarred poured concrete. Something many in Florida refer to as "hurricane proof". this house is not damaged....it is gone and the concrete rebar in bent and snapped. With all of the disasters I've responed to this is the worst. I've not seen damage on this scale before....even Andrew.

--------------------
Emergency Management Consultant & Trainer


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: sara33]
      #57669 - Mon Oct 03 2005 05:18 PM

well i found what is 92L (invest) on a visible sat... not sure how to post link... its from the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, GOES-E HURRICANE Visible Satellite Data, web page.... My image is centered at Latitude= 23.44° N Longitude= 74.93° W (X=352 Y=188).... and i did a medium range zoom and 25 frames of loop..... It's cleary visible to my eye of the surface rotation.... no storms near the center.... most of convection is to the east.... and its right exactly where early1.png file is pointing....

Here's the main page

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Katrina Aftermath - even rebar [Re: Sheeper]
      #57670 - Mon Oct 03 2005 05:20 PM

That's amazing...that's the way they build in Cozumel, and a lot of places down there have stood the test of many storms.

That's definitely surge damage. I wonder if the velocity of the surge is a factor in this kind of damage, and also if a building rotated 45 deg (so the V is facing the surge) would make any difference.

Camille's surge was so powerful it pulled plumbing pipes from concrete foundations. On one of the MS barrier islands (can't remember if it was Ship or Horn Island), a house was built on piers -- the thick wood posts that have to be pounded into the ground by that huge machine, like they build all the houses in places like Ocean City NJ -- and the building was tied to the piers...so Katrina simply pulled out some of the piers from the ground when she took the building.

Both ends of Horn Island were left underwater by Katrina -- one a beach that is over a mile long, and part of Petis Bois Island as well. West Ship Island is leveled except for the fort (another hurricane, Camille, split Ship Island in two in 1969). Still, that isn't as bad as the Chaneleur Islands in LA; Ivan had taken off all the foliage, and after Katrina they are for the most part shoals.

On second look...those look more like pillars rather than integrated parts of a wall. This may have been the piers that a house was build upon, and then I could understand the failure if the surge was higher than the piers, if there was a house on top, and no support on the ground level between each pier.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Mon Oct 03 2005 05:45 PM)


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #57671 - Mon Oct 03 2005 05:39 PM

I'm gonna come along now and say that pretty much all of you are right on the location of the "center" of 92L -- how's that for being ambiguous?

There appears to be some broad turning near Cat Island in the Bahamas, or approximately the position Storm Hunter referenced. However, this is likely a surface reflection of a sharp but narrow upper-level trough with an embedded weak upper-level low in about the same location. Whether or not it is directly associated with an upper-low or not, conditions in this are are unfavorable for development due to strong northerly shear (partially along the west side of the narrow trough, partially due to the outflow from Stan).

The area toward the east, however, is a much more favorable region for development. There is strong diffluence (divergent winds) aloft with an upper-level ridge building in across the area. While there does not appear to be any surface center within the midst of the large convective field across the region from well east of Daytona Beach SE-ward to Puerto Rico, there are strong low-level easterly winds at low levels on the north side of this area and weak overall winds on the south side of this area. Given how one sustained convective burst and the pressure falls that are associated with such an event can lead to the development of a surface circulation, I'd say it's a good bet that something ultimately forms within the midst of that cloud mass.

The precise location of the circulation formation has little impact upon the ultimate track -- west-northwest, then northwest -- but does impact what areas will see what weather from this system. Overall, Florida is in for at least a good bit of rain through the late part of the week and into the weekend...possibly more depending on what happens. My best guess is that something forms in the midst of the convection currently near 24N/70-72W and moves toward the WNW toward the state of Florida over the next couple of days. How much of something forms is yet to be determined.

The setup for something to form is quite similar to how Katrina, Rita, and Franklin formed over the course of this season with an upper-low and the associated diffluence aloft interacting with a tropical wave to its northeast; as the upper-low weakens and/or moves out, tropical development can begin in earnest. The ultimate track is likely to be somewhere between Katrina and Franklin's tracks -- i.e. west-northwest across the state of Florida, perhaps into the northern Gulf S of the Fl. Panhandle -- with intensity a crapshoot at this point. It could be a weak vortex that never reaches depression status, or it could be a minimal hurricane. Best bet is for something in the middle.

We'll watch it over the coming days -- Stan, too, for whatever happens with it as it strengthens in the Bay of Campeche -- and keep the updates coming.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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crpeavley
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Clark]
      #57674 - Mon Oct 03 2005 07:02 PM

Clark, what about the low GFS has shown for a few runs moving NE from the gulf, accross flroida around friday (18Z GFS)? Not heard much on this in the midst of developing weather to our east.

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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
Re: Models and other things [Re: Big Kahuna]
      #57675 - Mon Oct 03 2005 07:10 PM

I'm thinking of changing from Hootowl to Tylenol. This season (and last) have just about given me the worst headaches of my entire life!!!

o.k. I've been watching the models for days and days now. Why? Cause I was foolish enough to wish for rain. We haven't had any rain to speak of for the longest time. I am not liking what I see on the model runs today. I also am not sure which models are the best for this time of year. (I watch the GFS, GFDL & UKM) We are in a season change and I really don't know if that makes a difference as to which one/ones are better than others. - any Mets care to help me on this?

I would like to thank all of you for your input and direction you are wonderful!

Dotty (aka Tylenol)

yeah what crpeavley said too. confusing (rolls eyes and shakes head)!

Edited by Hootowl (Mon Oct 03 2005 07:12 PM)


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crpeavley
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
Re: TS Stan and Other Basin Activity [Re: Clark]
      #57676 - Mon Oct 03 2005 07:19 PM

The 18Z NAM and GFS show two disticnt scenarios concerning the approaching wave, with the NAM deepening a system over S Florida by 36 hours and GFS keeping it more shallow, or taking something deeper NW instead. Interested to hear some preferences for either and why...

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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Stan [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #57677 - Mon Oct 03 2005 07:51 PM

I've been tracking Stan since it left the Yucatan. The NHC at 1600cdt still have it tracking WSW, but as far as I can see it made a big turn towards the south from it's previous position. What's driving it at the moment? Has a pressure system to the SE slipped eastward allowing Stan to turn behind it and move south? I'm a novice so I'm just guessing. Looks like it could hit category one on the 2200 if I'm wrong. If it does continue south and start to pick up friction from the coast then maybe it won't.

Check out the Google Earth plot on my site.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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