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Archives >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
Re: Stan [Re: dave foster]
      #57678 - Mon Oct 03 2005 08:17 PM

Speaking of google earth, anyone here who has it should try out this network link
http://www.paulseabury.com/tropModels.kmz
It has overlays of model runs, SST's, satellite images, and analysis

Another good one can be found here
http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/
This is the "CONUS Radar Reflectivity (Composite)" overlay in google earth

And one more that shows all the known storm tracks from 1850-present
http://www.paulseabury.com/storms.html
the author wrote:
"Using the databse provided at NOAA's Coastal Services Center ( NOAA CSC ) I made a series of kmz's that show all storm tracks, as well as various storm information at each observation."

Edited by bobbutts (Mon Oct 03 2005 08:22 PM)


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Rubén
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Loc: Mérida, Yucatán, México 20.88N 89.74W
Re: Stan [Re: dave foster]
      #57679 - Mon Oct 03 2005 08:22 PM


http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/meteoro/cayo_arcas.php

This confirm the NHC bulletin advisory 09A at 23.6 milles from the center.

Look that rain!!


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Ryan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 281
Loc: Long Island, NY / Stuart, FL
GFS [Re: Rubén]
      #57680 - Mon Oct 03 2005 08:54 PM

yea im looking at the GFS right now, it seems like they have a system forming then slitting and going in dirrent, a part of it with pressure estimated at 996-1000 mb going over the NC extreme eastern areas the coming up the coast and going over RI-Cape Cod area, some of the other little storms that look to have "broke off" affect areas like NC, SC, GA coastal areas, and western Florida.. well i gues we'll wait and see but looking at GFS theres all the systems i talked aboiut, then like 2 or 3 more over by Africa. Ohhhh boy..

Ryan =)

--------------------
2006 Atlantic Season Summary:
Bad, But Not AS Bad.

Life's a Storm, Watch Your Back


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 119
Re: Stan [Re: bobbutts]
      #57681 - Mon Oct 03 2005 08:55 PM

Quote:

Speaking of google earth, anyone here who has it should try out this network link
http://www.paulseabury.com/tropModels.kmz
It has overlays of model runs, SST's, satellite images, and analysis




WOW!

Now that's cool. I'm a big Google Earth lover - didn't know someone had done an overlay for it....

Had to save that one......

--------------------
Do you dive? http://www.scubaforum.org
Invest? Come talk on the Tickerforum


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: Stan [Re: Rubén]
      #57682 - Mon Oct 03 2005 09:13 PM

Interesting.

Just found Cayo Arcas on Google Earth, right in the middle of Stan's path.
100mms of rain in the last four hours eh? Guess someone's a bit wet.

BTW, what's a little island doing all the way out there on it's own on a night like this?

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Stan [Re: dave foster]
      #57683 - Mon Oct 03 2005 10:19 PM

Poking around the model runs a bit, looks to me that 92L is a little random on the track. One thing I am picking up - and the CMC does this the most interesting way - is it appears that there is a 2nd circulation/low right next to 92L that will develop and become the dominant one. A number of the tracks I'm seeing seem to jump from the 92L one to the newly forming one after a couple days - so I'd toss most tracks out the window. We don't even know if that new one will develop, or if is just the models having fun with our minds.

It looks to me that we'll have another named storm in the next week or two - it's more a matter of which low forms it first. 92L is likely to beat anything else. Somehow I doubt that we won't break the "end of the alphabet" this year - there's just too much time left in the season...and the Atlantic still seems quite interested in spawning lows associated with tropical waves.

--RC


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Stan [Re: Random Chaos]
      #57684 - Mon Oct 03 2005 11:11 PM

somewhere between the florida straits and near puerto rico something ought to spin up over the next day or two. who knows, could be a little north of that line. once something gets going it'll probably move towards or over florida, then up the east coast. i'm guessing that the thing following stan into the gulf is a separate entity that will meander around like the models suggest. stan itself is nudging sw across the BOC and should go inland some time on wednesday--probably as a minimal hurricane. it's too close to land to really spin up i'm thinking, though it could end up being surprisingly strong.
in the medium to long range whatever is left in the gulf may move across florida and off the east coast.. and modeling suggests that more will try to brew up in the nw caribbean/yucatan region going into mid month. i'm discounting the stuff showing in the eastern atlantic as that region hasn't shown much proclivity to spawn things this year (aside from a doomed depression and some early medium-trackers).
with stan going in to the western bay of campeche coastline, that's the fourth system to hit that region this year. granted the other three were tropical storms, but that's still quite a concentration of hits.
HF 0311z04october


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 114
Loc: Mobile,Alabama 30.77N 88.14W
Re: Stan [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57685 - Tue Oct 04 2005 01:31 AM

000
URNT12 KNHC 040449
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/04:27:10Z
B. 19 deg 28 min N
093 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 3005 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 148 deg 047 kt
G. 061 deg 013 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 9 C/ 3051 m
J. 16 C/ 3066 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0620A STAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 04:23:00 Z


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
latest adv. on stan [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #57686 - Tue Oct 04 2005 02:41 AM

that sucker is coming up pretty quick. good thing it doesn't have but a day or less over water. stan is going to move slowly enough as it goes inland and once inland that rainfall amounts ought to be pretty high in places... especially the country between oaxaca and puebla. on the coast veracruz looks to take a pretty solid hit, but the worst conditions will be around the village of alvarado if the forecast track verifies. stan ought to decouple from its ridging and a lot of its mid level vorticity by wednesday, so there will be plenty of support for another system to make a development run in the gulf later in the week.
HF 0641z04october


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meranto
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
Re: latest adv. on stan [Re: HanKFranK]
      #57687 - Tue Oct 04 2005 04:38 AM

Wow, thats some pretty heavy deep convection, -85C / -90C cloud tops you don't see everyday.

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