Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The lowest pressure I can find (1007 mb) is at a C-Man station on Grand Bahama island, which corresponds with what was mentioned in the . There does seem to be something trying to form closer to the convection in that area. The area of lowest pressure extends into south Florida and the Keys, where winds are light at the moment... this is probably a reflection of the surface feature we were following earlier that has moved further west. So far, there has been only the slightest hint of cyconic turning on the Miami radar associated with the deeper convection over the NW Bahamas.
Sounds like they are ready to pull the trigger as soon as there is any evidence to close off the circulation.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Still some amazingly cold cloud tops continue in the convection being generated by Stan, both in the part of the circulation that has moved out over the Pacific, and in the feeder band over the Yucatan.
GOES floater 1 has been repositioned to where Stan is heading in the Pacific, so I would assume that thinks something is going to continue cooking once the remnants of Stan are all offshore. That offshore area does not have the same heat potential as the Carribean, but a little ways offshore to the west at 15N 100W is a pocket of slightly warmer water (looks like the only one).
Stan seems to be on a steady course, not like what I remember the models had anticipated. It seems like so far the upper level circulation has held up quite well. So it will be interesting to see the next model runs and the 10pm discussion, to see if there is still a good possibility of something coming back into the GOM.
edit -- just read the 10pm...looks like I was too optimistic for Stan's remnants, as forecasts it will dissipate.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Oct 05 2005 12:10 AM)
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Brown Brown
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
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Looks like it's spinning up now. A clear eye showing on the Radar, water Vapor and Infared for the last hour or so. That stuff coming across the state looks like it's letting up.
Oh, it'll be a tropical storm tomorrow alright, if not a hurricane...
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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The discussion did state that Stan could regenerate over the Pacific, but the official forecast calls for dissipation.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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I've thrown up some thoughts on the blogs -- accessible on the main page or via the forums. I figure we'll probably get Tammy out of the mess near 26N/78W as it heads in the general direction of Jacksonville over the next couple of days. It's going to continue to be a wet time period for the entire Florida peninsula and Georgia coastline over the next couple of days, no matter what happens. Some further development is possible, but not a lot given the slight shearing environment and just above marginal SSTs...figure moderate to high-end TS at best. Not too bullish on anything else out there in the next 4 or 5 days or so for reasons I mention in the blog post, but it all bears watching. Essentially, it's one fine mess out there.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Here's an excerpt from the 5:30am :
Quote:
Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate this system later today.
With the winds already reported with this system, will they upgrade to Tammy...or list this as TD #21??
--Lou
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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You can see the center of circulation quite plainly now on the tropical cyclone about 40 miles East of Melbourne, Florida now.
Again interesting how this year, several storms have been born in the area of the Bahama's.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I updated the main Page with some snippets from the 2 AM EDT Trop. Wx Discussion.
Main item is 92L. Several areas of low pressure around the FL Peninsula. Upper low in the NE GOM. While a surface low is over the Bahamas.
Latest surface observation indicate Vero Beach has the lowest pressure...1005.0mb. Also of note was the difference in the wind directions just N of Vero Beach. While Melbourne has winds from the ESE, the winds at Vero Beach are from the NW.
Latest satellite imagery indicating the upper low over the NE GOM is attempting to close off. Trailing convection westward to the mid GOM, south of Terrebone Bay,LA.
Outflow from the remnants of Tropical Depression Stan are producing wind shear and appear to be delaying the closing off.
AFRES RECON is scheduled for a 10:30AM EDT investigation today...providing it isn't called off by /TPC. Close proximity to land will occasionally result in a cancellation of a flight.
While I was composing this. Lou and Wxwatcher2 posted some more up-to-date information.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 05 2005 06:04 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
With the winds already reported with this system, will they upgrade to Tammy...or list this as TD #21??
--Lou
Based upon the ... It will be directly designated as T.S. Tammy shortly. I say this because the said a Tropical Cyclone had formed - it did not say a Tropical Depression. They may not yet know how strong the maximum winds are, and may wait until recon is in before naming it, however.
Chad Myers is saying it will run up the east coast - which is contrary to ALL of the computer models the last time I checked (which all forecast it to enter the GOM and basically hit me, or come close to me and then head back NE across the state again). Looking at the current models for 92L on WU, they show it moving parrallel to the coast but on shore.. except for which has it moving into the central GOM. NONE of them have it hitting Georgia (which is what Chad said it would do). What the heck was he basing his forecast on???
By the way... the movement on radar appears to be very slow, but WNW to my eyes (or due west as Daniel pointed out after my initial post). It may make landfall near Melborne before the gets around to sending a plane into it... circulation looks VERY close to land. Any word on where the warnings will be put up for, or what the forecast track officially will be?
Added: From the MLB NWS office:
NOW...
...TROPICAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF MELBOURNE...
AT 545 AM...MELBOURNE RADAR DETECTED THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER 30 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE. THE CIRCULATION WAS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.
Well so much for what my eyes were tellijng me about a due west/wnw motion, I guess. And where is the advisory on this thing? said 30 minutes ago that there would be a special advisory issued shortly. Weather Channel just said that the hurricane hunters found a circulation - but said they were just standing by, not that they had even gone into the system! Is everyone on a different page with this thing???
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 05 2005 06:52 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
You can see the center of circulation quite plainly now on the tropical cyclone about 40 miles East of Melbourne, Florida now.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
The circulation center is moving nearly due west. And should move into the Melbourne area in the next few hours.
This puts everyone in the Northern Peninsula in the right front quadrant...so to speak.
Cloud tops ESE of Melbourne have peaks above 50,000ft. At this time, and will rotate around the circulation.
Jacksonville NWS Office has issued advisories for "gusty winds of up to 50 mph". Valid until 715AM EDT. These warnings will probably be extended.
Please pay close attention to your Local NWS Office for later watches and warnings.~danielw
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/
http://www.srh.weather.gov/jax/
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 05 2005 06:35 AM)
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Hootowl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 77
Loc: New Port Richey, Fl
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ummmmm. Folks - the Navy site lists 21L Tammy!
:?:
Here's the link
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
Edited by Hootowl (Wed Oct 05 2005 07:04 AM)
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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I was watching the news and all the channels are saying it is now tropical storm Tammy.  
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I was watching the news and all the channels are saying it is now tropical storm Tammy.
Which channels? None of the national ones are saying anything about the strength yet... except for calling it a depression. Myers (CNN) even said it was "very disorganized which is why it's not a tropical storm". We all knew last night that the only thing preventing the from calling this Tammy was the lack of a closed circulation, though.
And Hoottowl... NWL Monterey still shows it as 92L.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 05 2005 06:58 AM)
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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local news channels in Orlando - WFTV 9
FOX-35 News Channel3
I was just watching as I am typing and the met. for the channel
said it won't be "official" until 7:30.
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amonty
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 66
Loc: Clearwater, Fl
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there is a center of circulation just east of Melbourne
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
local news channels in Orlando - WFTV 9
FOX-35 News Channel3
I was just watching as I am typing and the met. for the channel
said it won't be "official" until 7:30.
National news (CNN, ) is not saying squat at the top of the hour. If the official advisory is due at 7:30 ET, it's probably because they want a recon fix (I assume), to make sure it's a T.S.
Now I'm seeing northward movement on the MLB radar. 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Im in Melbourne about 2 miles inland and there is a little rain but no wind. Not even a breeze. I haven't heard anything about advisories yet. We have a weather alert and it's stll silent.
Jackie
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Brown Brown
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
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If the shear stops, and it doesn't hit land, "if", it's a hurricane by this afternoon. Amazing how quickly it's moved north.
The has repeatedly underestimated the hurricanes this year, including this one.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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Quote:
If the shear stops, and it doesn't hit land, "if", it's a hurricane by this afternoon. Amazing how quickly it's moved north.
The has repeatedly underestimated the hurricanes this year, including this one.
The has not repeatedly underestimated hurricanes this year.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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It's official. We have Tammy just off the coast of Cocoa. I am here in Longwood, FL, just northwest of Orlando, and it is raining pretty hard right now.
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