MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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5:30AM
Tropical Storm Stan was downgraded to Tropical Depression at 03Z (11PM EDT) last night. 2 AM EDT Trop. Wx Discussion indicating the remnants of Stan are moving SW over the Mexican Stae of Oaxaca (Wa-ha-ca). Remnants are forecast to move into the E. Pacific.
92L-Bahama's tropical wave, centered just N of Andros Island, Bahamas, or 26N/ 79W at 2 AM EDT.
At that time 'the broad area of low pressure did not appear to have a closed circulation...however it was producing Gale Force winds off the NE Coast of Florida.' "This system has the potential for tropical development over the next 24 to 36 hours".from the TWDiscussion.
Floridians and interests in and near the NE GOM should pay close attention to this wave. A mid-upper level Low exists in the NE GOM at this time and Dr Lyons, of the Weather Channel, said that conditions could bring the upper Low and the tropical wave together.
6:30PM
Hurricane Stan has made landfall along the southern gulf coast, west of the Yucatan in Mexico.
92L Continues to remain disorganized, but it has been sending windy storms our way in Central Florida. The chance for development remains very low. But it will send stormy and rainy conditions across Florida.
Original Update
Hurricane Stan has strengthened quite a bit, and its motion has been quicker than anticpated. It is heading for the southern coast of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche. An unusual track for a hurricane, but still occurring none the less.
It has a chance to become a category 2 before landfall, as it has been developing very quickly overnight.
As it approaches land it will quickly run into the mountains in that part of Mexico and dissipate, causing a huge rain event. People in the coastal areas there must prepare quickly as Stan is a strengthening hurricane.
The wave over the Bahamas is moving gradually westward, and it may not develop before it reaches Florida. Much of the clouds and convection are east of the center, and it doesn't have all that much time to develop.
We'll be watching it however. It will likely be a rain event over central and south Florida, but there remains some question on if it will develop further.
Event Related Links
Mexican Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
TS Stan
Animated model plot of TS Stan
92L
Animated model plot of 92L
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 05 2005 05:37 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Well what the?...I wake up and go look at the sat images and Stan has made a beeline for the SW overnight, and is likely to make landfall before the 10am advisory.
I estimated right on the intensity yesterday, but apparently for the wrong reason...after Stan left the shallow deep warm coastal waters, he continued to intensify, and looks to be still doing so.
Trying to understand this...Last night noticed a lot of convection curving along the coastline (part of a feeder band curving all the way around west of the storm, then north, then southeast past Cuba and bringing up Carribean warmth?), and this seems to have all merged into one big mass of convection with the storm, now. But this morning, looking at the sat image, also notice that overnight there was a lot of convection occuring on the west coast of MEX as well, and wondering if this is another feeder band that is curving in from the south and hooking up with the storm from the east. Is the storm obtaining some of its energy from the Pacific at this point? Also I'd assume the faster forward speed is a factor, preventing upwelling of cooler water under the warm SSTs.
edit -- reviewing the overnight stuff, had to issue a special discussion at 1am to change the track, the speed, and the intensity.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Oct 04 2005 08:35 AM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Just curious...woke up this morning to a lot of rain and a pretty good wind....is this because of the area in the Bahamas?
And....what are your thoughts on the possible strength of it? Just looking at the "spagetti models" it doesn't look good for those of us in Florida so I am curious if the conditions are good for strengethening or not.
Good grief.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Yes, its from the storm in the Bahamas, we had the same thing. I was just out and the winds are probably about 15-20 mph out of the east. Kind of nice out.
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Scrappy
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 6
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I dont think this storm has a chance of further strethening. It is encountering enourmous sheer in it's NE quadrant. This is also the area where all the convection is happening thus sapping all of it's instensity. It will mean increased rain for central and southern Florida but it's been dry lately, my lawn could use it.
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Tom "Scrappy"
Tampabay - 82 years and counting without a direct hit.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Katie, from the Melbourne Weather:
"...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWERING
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN AVERAGE WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AROUND 20 MPH INLAND. OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH ON THE BEACHES...35 MPH ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND AROUND 30 MPH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
NEAR PASSING HEAVY SHOWERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA."
They have been predicting the winds for a few days now. However, I noticed today that they are saying the disturbance will also be responsible. Especially with the incoming squalls. I personally don't think there is much time for 92 to strengthen before it comes to Fl on the first trip. If it goes in the GOM and comes back then it may be a bigger problem. To early to tell though.
Jackie
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Katie, it's covered in the news:
The wave over the Bahamas is moving gradually westward, and it may not develop before it reaches Florida. Much of the clouds and convection are east of the center, and it doesn't have all that much time to develop.
We'll be watching it however. It will likely be a rain event over central and south Florida, but there remains some question on if it will develop further.
I too woke up to rain, my sister going into labor, and my dad (recovering from surgery) needing me to take care of him today. More rain coming in off the coast now, and it should continue throughout the day.
I think we might see this area become a TD at best, but there is an outside shot that an LLC will develop under the ULL (or the current low circ will migrate) and we'll see TS Tammy. Time will tell and we should know a lot more by tonight.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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GOES 2 now has 92L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Much easier to see now.
Jackie
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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Looks like a rainy few days ahead for the "Sunshine" state. We won't melt and many areas can actually use the rain.
Glad to see Stan heading inland and hope it doesn't affect too much of the population in Mexico. Stan is another one of the "named" storms that have not bothered the Continental U..S. Good good good.
We can have as many named storms as you like as long as they stay out to sea or stay South of the U.S.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Looks like Stan may be inland, or very very close to it.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Models on 92L are getting more spread out. Could be a much different system in terms of intensity if it hangs out in the Gulf for a while:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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That's my fear too. I'm afraid FL is going to get drenched as it goes west and then hit harder when and if it turns around. By the way, can anyone tell me where you see (if any) a circulation. I keep seeing one farther north of where the has it. It almost looks like it moved closer to the convection. Can someone clarify it for me.
Thanks, Jackie
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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, stan took a shortcut. good thing it did.. if it had remained over water and kept deepening like it was...
anyhow a lot of the models are keeping stan's remnants close enough to the BOC that it sort of 'redevelops' back over water. i don't quite buy into that... as the ctr will probably spend the next couple of days trying to cross mexico. whatever (if anything) tries to pop in behind it would probably be a new, wake system.
i'm thinking that calling the area from the bahamas down to puerto rico '92L' is an oversimpification. the actual low with 92L is around andros island, the big bahama island southeast of miami. it doesn't exactly have any convection at the center, but some really heavy stuff to the east. there's some shearing going on, but the trough is backing westward faster and you can see some diffluence in the convection to the north... so it ought to let up or become more supportive for convection. 92L should start actually developing sometime today. may be that another meso-low takes over in the convective region or that the convection finally builds to the center. either way, ought to be a tropical cyclone by some time tomorrow.. and very close to or over south florida. the rest of the convective area that 92L is a part of has potential to start trouble as well. note the weak low level turning north of hispaniola and the mid-level low near the virgin islands. either of these is a troublemaker if it becomes better defined. my take is that 92 will enter the eastern gulf as a broad, sloppy system, and get stuck as another low develops to the east and rides nw on its back flank... curving up the coast ahead of the trough coming later in the week (as advertised by more than half of the globals). from there 92 may follow suit or just drag around the gulf.... hard to say as it could be interacting with whatever is in stan's wake. centered around the weekend a trough is set in the northeast, but that pulls out in a lot of the modeling next week and if anything else is trying to come up it can get blocked by resurgent ridging. call it a week of unsettled weather for florida and the atlantic coastal plain.
worth noting that old TD 19's remnant low is bursting convection and moving west under the ridge... behind the piece of that hybrid advertised last week that came west... and the little low from invest 91L the other day that is also coming in behind it. lot of the globals have been tracking the energy from this set of features westward and showing a low developing out of it near bermuda late in the week. they're firing convection again because an upper trough is deepening to the west (in the wake of the ridging just east of 92L) and is causing the flow to become diffluent over them, allowing some ridging to build. it's not a strongly probable thing, but it looks to me like that mess is still trying to use up another of the few remaining atlantic names. in my book the names end at .. calling a tropical storm 'alpha' is desperation.
HF 1429z04october
hmmm.. ten year Opal anniversary. i was 14 when that happened. time is flying.
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Thanks, now I feel like an idiot...I don't get to watch the news in the morning. I went from watching and TODAY to ... The Wiggles and Dora...how pathetic is my life? I can sing a tune for you but I can't tell you what is going on around me. No wonder I say up for the 11 p.m. news..sometimes.
Okay, well, good to know this thing isn't going to be a monster. I assumed that what we were experiencing was from it but not completely sure. I know we don't need the rain. Parts of our County are still under water....can't be good.
Darn...It is really coming down right now too.
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zmdz01
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 31
Loc: Simi Valley, CA
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Mods:
I know this is off the current topic but I found it very interesting.
I found an article suggesting that was a Cat 3 storm when it hit the Louisiana coastline and was a Cat 1 while it was over Lake Ponchatrain.
Here is an excerpt from the article:
"New, preliminary information, compiled by hurricane researchers, suggests the system struck southeast Louisiana on Aug. 29 with peak-sustained winds of 115 mph. That would have made it a Category 3 storm, still a major hurricane but a step down from the enormous destructive force of a Category 4.
Katrina might have further downgraded to a strong Category 1 system with 95-mph winds, when it punched water through New Orleans' levees, severely flooding most of the city and killing hundreds. The levees were designed to withstand a Category 3 storm."
Here is the link for the full article:
http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/breaking_news/12813868.htm
it's sort of splitting hairs. i really doubt that the spot winds in the eastern eyewall.. which didn't go over any of the listed areas, were at 145mph. the western eyewall had a good bit of decay when it came in and the strong winds probably weren't mixing to the ground. i'm not sure if the guys who published the article really got the gist of what the HRD guys were trying to say... though i could be mistaken. suffice to say it would be very odd to have a hurricane with a 920mb central pressure and 115mph winds. or rather stupid. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 04 2005 01:16 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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As we are getting closer and closer to the possibility that we'll have named storms past the letter "W" (only "Tammy," "Vince," and "Wilma" are left), the idea of using Greek letters seems more and more ludicrous; what are they going to do if "Alpha" turns out to be a storm name that would need to be retired? I can't see that in the history books anyway: Hurricane Alpha. Loved the comment a couple days ago ("Beta decay, Delta change...") The world has not run out of names. Why not create a 7th list of "reserve" names that could be used every year, and would serve in this situation, with the same rules as the original six lists (retire a name if necessary and replace it with another name). It wouldn't even have to be a complete list; it would only have to have 5-10 names on it (can't wrap my mind around what a busier season than this one would be like!). They keep saying we may have 10-20 more years before we're out of this active period. Imagine comptemplating the use of Alpha and Beta every year or so, down the road until we're all ready to retire...ugh.
edit -- just looked at the sat images for Stan...it looks like the lopsided convection resulted in a pivot at landfall, and the path of the center has curved more south, and was going almost due south the past hour. If it goes SSW instead of SW, then the upper level remnants of the storm will be in the Pacific even sooner.
Edited by Margie (Tue Oct 04 2005 11:56 AM)
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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Well I was not crazy about FL's possible involvement with the then very early models on 9-30-05, and certainly not happy if any of what increasingly seems to be the model consensus comes to fruition. It appears that some of the models are merging remnants of Stan and "92L" and looping them back into the west coast. Of course, time will tell and as we have all seen this year and in many past, things can change in a hurry. Just had a quick squall move through Tampa, winds around 15 gusting to 23.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Hurricane Stan made landfall 15 miles norheast of Tuxtla, Mexico as a category 1. This area looks to be more or less uninhabited on Google Earth, but maybe that's because the developers have been slow at getting around to Mexico. It also looks to be pretty flat here so Stan might go a bit longer than one would expect, maybe even make it to the other side.
Check Stan's track with Google Earth on my site.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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The latest visible satellite loops are beginning to show a possible LLC developing between Andros Is & Eleuthera Is in the Bahamas. Also, banding features are beginning to develop on the East & Northeast side.Looks like the shear will keep it in check for now, but would not be surprised to see it develop into at least a TD before it reaches the FL east coast .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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I was just about to post the same thing Tropics Guy....this is a very interesting development, and I think we will have at least a TD before it gets to the peninsula, maybe a TS if the shear continues to relax. It is also moving slowly to perhaps the NW currently. Ed D. & mets, what do you think about this area east of Andros Island??
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