sara33
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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I have been watching the models also, boy they were right! But with the shearing and so forth, what are the chances of seeing 93L turn into a cane?Is it way too early to tell?Guess anything is possible this year 
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Well the area near the Yucatan has caught my immediate attention. There is a LLC currently crossing the Yucatan peninsula that should emerge off the east side into the water later today. It will be interesting to see how this reacts when its offshore, particularly if Tammy goes toward the north and doesn't get into the NE GOM. If tht happens, the Yucatan systemwill NOT go toward the panhandle as some models show, but further east toward the Florida peninsula, since it will not get influenced by a southerly flow, but more from the SW. Getting real interesting as we head into the next two weeks, as models have all kinds of scenarios to wind up the hurricane season. The low in the east-central Atlantic looks to be a lamb waiting for slaughter as screaming upper level flow is to its NW. If that doesn't lessen, we won't have to worry about that. But we have enuf on this side of the Atlantic to keep us concerned. Cheers!!
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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Yeah, if you look at the WV loop here http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html you can see the ULL in the NE GOM that is backing westward and a bit south.
As that backs it should cut off the dry air being pushed down into the Bay of Campeche and provide a "conduit" for the storm coming off the Yucatan to track into.
This is your path is "least resistance". The $64,000 question is how fast will it back off and to what degree.
If the low was to cut off the dry air entirely and progress west up across LA and towards Texas then this thing could come nearly straight poleward. I don't see that happening as there is strong system brewing in the midsection of the country that is likely to pick this up and suck it out of here - but that also would tend to vector whatever this thing is northward as well, as I expect that this trough diving down is strong enough to get to the gulf over the weekend.
My "best guess" looking at the total pattern picture is somewhere along the west coast of the peninsula, but it could be anything from a minor rain event to something significant (and ugly.)
The dynamics on this one are pretty complex - I'm watching this thing even over this far west (near Destin) and I'd pay close attention anywhere from there to Key West right now, until there's more definition to the upper air pattern and the depth of whatever comes off the Yucatan is better understood.
The big risk area is that it appears there won't be a lot of warning on this from the time it turns into a real threat until it gets where its going.....
I was planning on going to Orlando for some Mouse House time Thursday through Saturday - I suspect that's gonna get rained out and I will likely cancel - tropical or no, it sure looks like we'd be heading right into some pretty significant precip.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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yeah i agree, i see the LLC center about to exit the yucatan late this afternoon ......this is going to get interesting in about 12-24hrs.... where this comes out along the coast.... it's really warm water.... it's the actual water that feeds the loop current.... Just looks like florida can't escape any systems.... i think as of right now... 93L looks better than Tammy..... All of the stroms are mainly to the east of the center on tammy....my parents live just north of Jacksonville... across the state line into GA... said surf has been high.. but is RAINED alot!!!!
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html
Radar out of Canun
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 05 2005 01:03 PM)
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Goosus
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 21
Loc: Boise ID
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I really don't know why no one was talking about this area , 93L, last night (except for Margie).
Yesterday evening, practically the entire Yucatan Peninsula was covered by a bloom of intense convection with the coldest cloud tops the IR registers (all dark grey). I don't know what temperature that correlates to, but it was dwarfing any convection areas associated with Tammy or Stan's remains. If anyone can bring up yesterdays IR images for the area, I've never seen that massive an explosion of super cold clouds, even in say or . I'm sure some people were getting pounded under that rain.
Here's a question about Stan. Has a storm ever crossed from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific Basin and then crossed back into the Atlantic? I know a few storms have made the trip but have any made a roundtrip?
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I'm sorry if this is a dumb question but is the LLC exiting the Yucatan the same LLC that was Stan? I noticed that the computer models are using the convection on the east side of the Yucatan. If this LLC crosses out will it still be invest 93 or will it be Stan again?
Thanks, Jackie
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it will likely be a different system as the remnants of Stan are currently moving out over the Pacific
also, i have attached a radar of Tammy if anyone is interested
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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See how the circulation is looping in the eastern part of the Yucatan? This thing will be quick to get its act together when it enters the NW Carribean/GOM.
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
I'm sorry if this is a dumb question but is the LLC exiting the Yucatan the same LLC that was Stan? I noticed that the computer models are using the convection on the east side of the Yucatan. If this LLC crosses out will it still be invest 93 or will it be Stan again?
Thanks, Jackie
No...read further.
But first -- OK I'm sorry to keep harping on Stan's remnants but will someone please take a look at Floater 1 and tell me if I am seeing things, or does the 2nd group of convection in the Pacific (the one further to the west) also have an element of rotation? It is really hard for me to tell with the other so close by (which BTW is now invest 90E) and the shear pattern. I thought it might earlier today and then thought I better not mention it because you'd all think I was seeing too many things, but it appears that also has a circulation. Jeez Louise.
The LLC of Stan dissipated against the mountains of central Mexico, but the ULC remained fairly intact (IMHO). Yesterday evening two areas of very strong convection formed along what had been a strong feeder band of Stan's that came in from the Pacific. As the ULC moved out this morning, it merged with the rightmost area of convection, which I would call Stan, or Stan2 or whatever.
Yesterday the other strong feeder band had been arcing out of the west of Stan, over the top of the Yucatan, and into the Carribean. As Stan moved inland, that band moved south over the Yucatan and generated some amazing convection. This morning, that pulled away from the weakening circulation of Stan's ULC and started being sucked into the Carribean, where it is moving NE (unfortunately to go over the loop current, but it has no circuation, or so I thought, until it became 93L). Actually -- I don't know if it is that bloom of convection that is 93L, or the LLC some are saying they see moving out of the Yucatan, or if they are the same thing...lack of expertise. Can't find a good close up image of that area now (looks like they're going to run out of floaters!).
Yesterday the future Tammy was being posted to death and so I just kept looking at Stan and kept seeing interesting things happening. Promise until I understand more about 93L I won't say the dreaded words, "loop current."
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The system over the yucitan is mainly a mid-level swirl although there may be some turning of the winds in the lower levels. Its not out of the question that this thing becomes better organized later tonight if the T-Storms persists or compact around what would be a center. There is little to no model support for this as of yet.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Margie,
The circulation that I'm seeing is heading to the tip of the Yuc. I see it the best on this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Jackie
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Isn't 94L on page 1 old info ?
Shouldn't it be for the wave around 7.5 N
34.0 W ?
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Looking at the WV loop that Big Kahuna posted at 6:54 I would say that 93L is moving more towards the east and dispersing.
I now feel a bit relieved. I was quite concerned about how it was looking on my previous post.
BTW, what was that event between 90-95W and just above 20N? Just curious.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK even I can see it. It looks like that is what is forming out of the energy, and that the earlier convection that exited to the right of the Yucatan is going to continue to get sheared off to the SE.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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this link has a better shot. i does look like Stan split.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html
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Genesis
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
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There's a definite rotation on the eastern side of the Yucatan - is has come across roughly half the land area of the Yucatan in the last six hours. At that rate of movement it should be over water this evening, at which point we'll find out if it can start to wrap and fire anything up or not...... a large part of that will be determined by whether the ULL over the eastern gulf cuts off the dry air - if not then the shear and dry air should keep this thing from doing much.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Amusingly enough:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/0600 UTC 41.0N 23.2W ST1.5/1.5 90
Who knows anymore...
heh
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Big Kahuna
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 52
Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Quote:
Isn't 94L on page 1 old info ?
Shouldn't it be for the wave around 7.5 N
34.0 W ?
yes it is. if you look at thi pic on the front page the dates are from September.
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 138
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Confused....I see something at that lat but at 32 degrees long, not 23,,,is it a typo, or am I in the wrong place???
That was about 2am....
MM
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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I would not be overly concerned about 93L unless it redevelops convection closer to the center of circulation. The old convection seems to be slowly fading as it moves away to the east.
They have scheduled recon flights into 93L for tomorrow, making for a busy recon POD:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT
A. 06/1500Z A. 07/0300,0900Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. NOAA2 02IIA CYCLONE
C. 06/1230Z C. 07/0130Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W D. 26.0N 83.0W
E. 06/1400Z TO 06/1930Z E. 07/0200Z TO 07/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE
A. 07/1200,1500,1800Z E. 07/1030Z TO 07/1830Z
B. AFXXX 03IIA CYCLONE F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
C. 07/0900Z
D. 27.0N 82.5W
2. TROPICAL STORM TAMMY
FLIGHT ONE
A. 06/1500,2100Z
B. AFXXX 0321A TAMMY
C. 06/1245Z
D. 31.0N 81.0W
E. 06/1330Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HOURLY FIXES ON SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
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