Hugh
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by the way, stan may make a comeback off the mexican riviera tomorrow. i'm going to send the hate mail if they give it a pacific name... it's still stan, dammit. stan has put in its papers for retirement already, actually... it came about timed with a westerly pacific moisture surge and really rained on central america. latest reports number around 120 dead. deforested hillslopes are probably as culpable as heavy rains with these fatalities, i'm guessing.
HF 0110z06october
I remember a major hurricane (I think it was a major hurricane) several years back that cross Cetral America named Juan, I think. Don't remember the year and I may be completely wrong on the name, too, but for the sake of this discussion I'll call it "Juan"). Anyway, "Juan" crossed into the Pacific as a tropical depression - the was still issuing advisories on it as "Tropical Depression Juan" even after it entered the EPAC. It strengthened and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm name "Kate" (again, I don't remember the exact name). The Weather Channel was referring to it as "Tropical Storm Kate (Juan)" or something like that - using both names for several days. Eventually the dang thing crosses the International Date Line and became a Typhoon. I think it set the record for the longest-lived and most-travelled tropical cyclone - with advisories initiated by the , then transitioned to the CPHC and ultimately to the ... I think it eventually died out in the WPAC.
Anyway, if a tropical system traverses from the Atlantic basin to the EPac, the name changes - I don't know of a situation where it hasn't. But, the CPac and WPac have their own set of names, too... yet if an EPAC system moves past 140 degrees, it just transitions to the CPHC - no name change. Same if it goes past the date line... it transitions to the from the CPHC, and becomes a Typhoon instead of a Hurricane if winds are =>74, but it doesn't change name, so there is no consistency.
In this case, it won't be Stan because Stan split in half. If you call the EPAC system Stan you have to call 93L Stan and that would just be too confusing!
you're probably talking about john in 1994. it didn't start in the atlantic, but did have a very long life. actually crossed from eastpac to centpac to westpac and then back to centpac as it recurved, if my memory serves. either way, it had an extreme 31 day life span. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Oct 06 2005 05:51 AM)
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dave foster
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I agree, Clark... there is lots of incredibly dry air in the western GOM, and 93L seems to have gotten the punch squeezed out of it rather severely this afternoon.
That's what I was thinking. There was a time today when I was more than a little concerned about 93L's intentions. I really believed it was heading up the west coast of Florida as an intensifying system, so I was quite relieved when I saw the dry air get going from the north and push into the back of 93L and edge it off towards the east.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Hugh
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That's what I was thinking. There was a time today when I was more than a little concerned about 93L's intentions. I really believed it was heading up the west coast of Florida as an intensifying system, so I was quite relieved when I saw the dry air get going from the north and push into the back of 93L and edge it off towards the east.
I'm a BIT concerned about Tammy still. It made landfall 90 minutes ago or so... and has done nothing but looked MORE impressive on IR since then... it's gonna dump a lot of rain... hopefully that's all.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Brown Brown
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Take a look at the Water Vapor or IR animations of it. All that stuff is clumping together over Cuba, with something big happening south of Cuba in the last hour. Strange. The Stan thing headed south of Cuba, and has an increasingly mean look about it. A lot meaner looking than Tammy. Just a trace of circulation too, it seems.
Keeps that up overnight, we'll wake up to a Hurricane tomorrow.
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ralphfl
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Oh please a hurricane in the morning LOL maybe the Cat 5 i predicted a few days ago will come and eat it up and make a cat 6 as that is about as much a chance as this being a cane by morning.Please!
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Hugh
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Take a look at the Water Vapor or IR animations of it. All that stuff is clumping together over Cuba, with something big happening south of Cuba in the last hour. Strange. The Stan thing headed south of Cuba, and has an increasingly mean look about it. A lot meaner looking than Tammy. Just a trace of circulation too, it seems.
Keeps that up overnight, we'll wake up to a Hurricane tomorrow.
There's no trace of a circulation south of Cuba. There might be one north of the Yucatan Channel, but there are no clouds there. I don't know what IR animation you're looking at, but it doesn't look mean to me.
Edit: As much as I hate to say this... I agree with ralph! No offense intended, but this is not gonna be a hurricane tomorrow morning.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Thu Oct 06 2005 01:53 AM)
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suziqt
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Raining hard in Midway, GA. Here on the coast had ~6 inches in the last couple of hours. Expecting more. Flood warnings all over. Wind gust ENE around 38. Waitin' on that cold front and some fine south GA fall weather. Think it'll make it before November? 
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Clark
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The 's intentions on storm naming protocol were released when we had Adrian in the EPac back in May (seems like so long ago, eh?) -- if the storm maintains classifiable status, they will keep the name. If a storm in either basin is no longer classified but something (re)develops in the other basin, it will get a new name. They aren't particularly concerned with the differences in names because a) most people don't care about EPac storms other than hurricane followers and b) they don't get worked up about the "sex change" in terms of names; in fact, they always say that people should refrain from giving these storms a personality because of the name.
Anyway, I don't believe it is quite the same low level center firing up over the EPacific waters as was associated with Stan. Last night saw a major convective burst fire up near Acapulco and move WNW; today saw another one. The center slowed down as it approached the coast and remained just east of the convective bursts...for development to occur, either it will have to move out over water or give way to a new circulation. The latter looks more likely than the former...in which case it definitely wouldn't be Stan (and in either case, it'd get a new name with Stan's declassification). In any case though, it's a very ambiguous circulation.
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dave foster
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Just been looking at the GOM Water Vapor Loop. There's now some moist air definition forming at the centre and the whole mass is rotating, albeit clockwise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Clark
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That mess you see near Cuba is a combination of daytime convection over Cuba and the old convective complex. There is little organization to it with the low "center" well to the WNW of that area. No hurricane is going to form out of that anytime soon...and I say that with extreme confidence.
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Hugh
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Just been looking at the GOM Water Vapor Loop. There's now some moist air definition forming at the centre and the whole mass is rotating, albeit clockwise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
I just looked at that loop... I guess I'm blind. I see NO circulation in any direction.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Brown Brown
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Edit: As much as I hate to say this... I agree with ralph! No offense intended, but this is not gonna be a hurricane tomorrow morning.
I said if it kept doing what it was doing overnight. "IF".
Here's where I'm looking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Better hurry up, don't want to miss the hurricane...
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Storm Hunter
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if there's a hurricane in the morning.... someone would be in trouble.... i just can't find anything to support a TS/TD right now..... just alot of Moisture and a "weak" surface low....
Radar crapped out on last frame
But i do see signs of rotation just off of the tip of yucatan....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html
storms well to the east of low
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Oct 06 2005 02:16 AM)
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Brown Brown
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That shortwave infared doesn't show the really powerful parts, not enough resolution or something.
The Water Vapor and normal IR has pegged the meter about the width of Cuba. And every half hour, it doubles.
Oh no, something's up.
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Brown Brown
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Hard to say, but a litte white dot in the middle now... Particularly on the Water Vapor. And the worst stuff in a circle around it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Edited by Brown Brown (Thu Oct 06 2005 02:31 AM)
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Convergence
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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dave foster
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I stepped through the loop quite a few times and felt sure I could see some rotation, but I do not have a trained eye so I guess I must have been mistaken.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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La Nimo
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You need to get your act together son.
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tpratch
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post snipped by author after accomplishing intended purpose
Nothing to see here, move along...
Edited by tpratch (Thu Oct 06 2005 03:29 AM)
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Brown Brown
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