MikeC
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11:45PM Update
Just a quick update to mention Subtropical Depression 22, which had formed earlier today and has already stopped being tracked by the Hurricane center.
Lots of clouds still in the areas, but still nothng ready to form otherwise.
Original Update
There are several areas worth watching in the tropics, but nothing in the short term looks like it will develop.
First off, close to home, we have a wave between Cuba and the Keys, referred to as 93L, this is still very disorganized and it is still very unfavorible for development.
This one will cause more rain over Florida today.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance off the Keys in the next two days.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
Beyond that there is 94L, which is miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Central Atlantic. This one has a better chance to develop, but still not for the next few days.
This one needs to be watched for potential affects on the Leeward Islands, but right now it seems most likely that it will head out to sea before that.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance east of the Leeward Islands (94L).
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
There is another wave over the Leeward Islands themselvs right now, this one could develop over the next few days, but right now it remains fairly disorganized.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance over the Leeward Islands.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Another wave in the Central Atlantic Northeast of Puerto Rico This is mainly non tropical right now, and has a very low chance, but it's worth watching.
Chances for tropical development of the wave northeast of Puerto Rico.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
The disturbed area in the Western Caribbean somewhat associated with 93L is still hanging out there, too, and may have to be watched later if it decouples and hangs around there.
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Stormcarib reports from the islands
93L Yucatan Area
94L
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wasup
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Newbie here, wondering if the cold front will stall as it gets near Florida and sit there and develop on the tail end of the system? Will the cold front and all the other features out there interact? if they do, will Florida take the force of the interaction? I live in Fort Lauderdale
Thanks
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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GGEM (essentially the ) has a very interesting take on the Western Atlantic Basin near the end of next week...
http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm
It appears as though it is taking the U/A low currently near 23/59 and boring it to the surface over the next few days, while slowly moving it generally W.
The picture if complicated in the Atlantic Ocean for this weekend, early next week and beyond. There is a tendency unanimously across all guidance to build the W Atlantic heights actually further W.
In fact, it makes it unclear why most NWS offices are choosing to go with the more progressive models solutions regarding the frontal positioning by this Monday. It seems certainly plausible to this meteorologist that this boundary may in fact wash out altogether, and/or just be ineffectual at changing the synopsis beneath the middle troposphere. I suspect in the very least we will be left with a persistent S inflow of subtropical if not down right tropical air mass that will be oriented essentially S to N as we head into next week. (It may just be that the models are also overdoing the strenghth of antecedent anticyclone slated to migrate over the NW Atlantic at that time. I say so because it appears a bit questionable how intense the attending mid-level confluence will be with this feature.. A weaker feature would mean less suppression. Meanwhile, the GGEM solutions...
Also, the currently depicts a significant weakness in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas (thereabouts) for its days 5 and beyond, and this could be an attempt to latch onto similar thinking; especially considering that the overall synoptic tone of the is not too different from the GGEM.
Anyway, this will all be very interesting to watch because the U/A low in question is currently intensifying its convection closer to the center as we go on in time.. And, there are certain aspects about the GGEM solution that are quite believable because it elucidates both elements of peristence but also compliments the teleconnectors for this part of the hemisphere... I would say, of the extended range depictions we have seen thus far this late summer and autumn, this is the most confident - *however, confidence in any tropical phenomenon is by current science fleeting at best.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 07 2005 02:18 PM)
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NewWatcher
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Man, and here I thought HankFrank was sometimes too technical for my uneducated mind.... I dont get one single thing you just tried to tell us  that being said, I did look at the models you mentioned and see some things you are probably talking about so I guess in the end it is all copasetic. 
heyyyy..... and what's copasetic mean anyway? -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 08 2005 04:24 AM)
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Hootowl
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95L on the Navy site.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
Man, and here I thought HankFrank was sometimes too technical for my uneducated mind.... I dont get one single thing you just tried to tell us that being said, I did look at the models you mentioned and see some things you are probably talking about so I guess in the end it is all copasetic.
Ah , sorry , my bad...
Basically I'm just saying (perhaps too implicitly) that the feature of interest (to me) should really be the hurricane being modeled by the , which is also being somewhat supported by the - MET 101, it is always better to have more than one model forecasting a feature of interest.
What I also didn't mention is that the operational ECM and models do not readily depict a feature such as the former two. However, and what I meant by "teleconnector" before, is that there is higher surface pressure in the means over the NW Atlantic and tending to migrate E.. This tends to lower surface pressure more than normal (potentially so) in the SW Atlantic Basin as a balancing mechanic against the higher surface pressure to the N. What this means is that you have an augmented (or enhanced) potential for cyclonic genesis between Cape Hatteras, Cuba and Bermuda. That area should be monitored for old frontal draps, U/A lows (such as that which we have approaching the area) and also TW's.
Having said all that... Hmmm...I wasn't paying attention but there is a gyre rotating around about 100miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi. I am uncertain whether this feature is a portion Tammy's remnants that might have sheared SW while she was in decay mode, but my memory is telling me that it is actually a separate entity. Either way, it has intense showers near it axis of rotation and though the U/A (as HPC has mentioned) is unfavorable over Florida and Cuba, I think it is actually "somewhat" better near this feature's precise lat/lon. Anyway...active tropics!
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Reaper
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Loc: Lake Placid, Fla
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Does anyone have a link to the South Florida Water Management web-page which lists all of the current storm tracks?
That way I won't have to keep changing the storm number/name in the URL.... 
Much thanks...
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CoalCracker
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Reaper,
Here's the link you requested to the plot site.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
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Thunderbird12
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Loc: Oklahoma
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They actually did a SHIPS run this morning for 21L (Tammy's remains) over the northern Gulf. Not much development was indicated though. The SHIPS run for 95L this morning showed steady intensification to hurricane strength in about 48 hours. This DOES NOT mean that the model is forecasting 95L to become a hurricane... the model runs under the assumption that the system is already a tropical cyclone, which 95L is not. However, the intensification shown in the model suggests that conditions would generally be favorable for intensification if 95L does become a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours.
Here is a link to some early model tracks for 95L:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
There is a well-defined surface circulation near the GA coast right now... it's too small and too close to land for much tropical development, but it will enhance the tornado threat across coastal areas of northern GA and the Carolinas, where a Tornado Watch has recently been issued.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
There is a well-defined surface circulation near the GA coast right now... it's too small and too close to land for much tropical development, but it will enhance the tornado threat across coastal areas of northern GA and the Carolinas, where a Tornado Watch has recently been issued.
That's an interesting little feature isn't it... Actually, if I didn't know any better I'd suggest we are looking at at supercell. Notice when looking at visible imagery that the area on it's backside suddenly clears out, as a band extends cyclonically in its right exit region as the system moves N. This is classic. We see this in the Plains states during severe weather outbreaks. Basically, dry air/subsidence into the back side is clearing it out as the ingest on the front side draws in warm unstable air. This way, the warm ingest is not being impeded by the relatively stable air on the backside and the storm is allowed to perpetuate - i.e., supercell. Doesn't necessarily mean a tornado is on the ground or anything like that, but, it is wise to have a tornado watch in effect for the areas N and NE along the coastal plain of SC. Fascinating.
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Thunderbird12
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There definitely seems to be a supercell-type storm near the northern GA coast, though it appears to have been spawned by a somewhat larger-scale (larger than supercell scale, but small-scale in the grand scheme of things) circulation.
Convection continues to increase in the northern Caribbean. Westerly shear seems to have given way to northeasterly shear in that area, though the overall shear seems less than in the last couple of days. No signs of anything developing at the surface there.
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B.C.Francis
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I was looking on the page and they have this as a area of interest. Is this 95L or a past storm ? Kind of ominous that track wouldn`t you think if it is 95L ?....Weatherchef..... web page
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Big Kahuna
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Loc: DeLand, Florida
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Navy site dropped 95L but its still on the back up site. Looking at some model runs , , and had something coming off the Dominican in a couple of days.... We'll see....
Back up site http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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HanKFranK
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hmmm... 93L sorta troughed out. you can still see it east of florida, but it doesn't look like anything trying to develop at this point. 94L and 95L are still out there. they switched appearances today as 95L looks elongated within its tiny anticyclone inside a trough environment. 94L finally has the convective appearance it's been lacking for the last 2-3 days but is now just about into the shear zone. lot of the models are keeping a big low pressure near hispaniola and slingshotting 95L around it towards the mid-atlantic states next week. most show it as a wave... a couple have a closed low. add up the odds and it still looks like something should develop out of all this... pattern would support it, and there are several individual features that could serve as an initiator. of course nothing says it has to happen.
HF 0433z08october
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HanKFranK
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holy crap. go to the ghcc zoom satellite link at the bottom of the satellite page, and take a look at a shot from the meteosat (east atlantic, africa, europe) zoomed in on the canaries. that azores system has dropped southeast and looks to have completely occluded. ssd rated it a st 3.0 (calling it 96L, something hasn't picked up on), which would be a very powerful subtropical storm. always ignores things out there, and it is over water near 70F, but i'd bet there's a good warm seclusion within that cool environment, similar to what happened with peter in december 2003. that's the sort of hybrid system that would have everybody singing and dancing if it were, say, racing up the eastern seaboard. kudos to the if they mention it in the 5:30 . correction, that's near madeira island off nw africa.
worth note that 95L has improved overnight and is now rated st 2.5, which is probably excessive. a persistence of its current structure or improvement would probably result in a classified system, so it isn't far off. most modeling isn't doing much with this system, but its energy is tracked wnw through the next few days towards the mid atlantic coast. it'll be noteworthy in case this thing develops.
to the southeast 94L has again uncoiled its overnight burst of deep convection. there is still plenty around it and in the upper-air diffluence on its northern side. as the upper trough ahead of it is sharpening and retrograding there is no certainty that it will kill the invest. it may remain coherent as it moves generally nw .over the next few days. there's actually still some modest ridging over the top of it, but it isn't sustaining convection.
closer to home 93L is jetting nne east of florida right now. too much shear and a very elongated nature makes this more of a trough max than anything else, but it will generate a good bit of squally weather for eastern nc and eventually new england as it accelerates northward.
there are a couple of swirls.. one in the central bahamas and another in the nw caribbean.. that are worth a glance, but not doing anything as of yet.
pretty much all the 00Z runs have a tropical system in the western atlantic by early next week. seems axiomatic that we're going to get a mid-october storm.
HF 0908z08october
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 08 2005 09:22 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Ratings like that would indicate 2 sub tropical storms. I wonder how much of this is the wanting to avoid running out of names. After all, subtropical storms get names now.
Eh, the doesn't mention the Azores storm, but the other one is mentioned... Maybe they're just waiting for visible light before pulling the trigger?
Speaking of Azores storm:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tropics.cgi
Anyone else see a possible 'eye-like' feature? It may simply be an artefact of the cloud organization, but it makes me go hmmmm
And looking at the most recent quikscat, there are a ton of 45 kt wind vectors out there in the system, so at this point, maybe they're also just waiting for it to be 'warm core' enough...
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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surprised the system nr the Azores hasn't been classified yet. with tnumbers of ST3 it might have a shot at classification when the visibles are out. will be surprised if it doesn't get named.
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
surprised the system nr the Azores hasn't been classified yet. with tnumbers of ST3 it might have a shot at classification when the visibles are out. will be surprised if it doesn't get named.
The thing SE of Bermuda looks good on static IR (loading the loop now)... Well based on the loop I can't tell if it's spinning or not.
NRL does not have a floater on the Azores system, so I doubt that will be classified. It will probably be deemed cold core and thus not eligible for naming. pages are not loading fully for me this morning, though. 93L has disappated so that's oine less name that will be used up. Area east of the Windwards is totally disorganized, and I don't see that developing either.
Who knows, it MIGHT be quiet for the rest of the season?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/081241.shtml?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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just a quick post - FNMOC now have the system between Bermuda and the Caribbean up as 22L. expect advisories to be initiated at 1500z.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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