GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am not being funny but commenting that due to the strange weather patterns we all have been experiencing, with Tropical storms showing up where they are least expected, I am now considering the possibility of anywhere from North Florida to Miami to experience a blizzard of snow this winter. Florida has had snow in the past and in my life time of 54 years I have seen 3 snowfall accumulations of an inch or so that melted and was gone by the end of the day or early the next day. With this in mind, it would not surprise me to see a blizzard of the mid west proportion. Now relatively speaking a blizzard for Florida would be tropical storm force winds and 3 inches of snow. This would be a mild storm for the mid west and a disaster for people who have never driven on snow or coped with it in large accumulations. But, it would be in keeping with the rest of the strange season.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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Tampa had snow fall in January 1976/77 of about 1-2 inches. The northern panhandle has seen more than its share of snowfall. I know in the Great Storm of 1993, I think 2 inches fell in spots. At the time I was living in W.Va. and we had over 30 inches with 5-6 feet snow-drifts.
I wouldn't mind seeing snow in Florida this coming winter. 
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Hear, hear!
Now, what's the chance of something hitting the UK within the next five years?
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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There appears to be some tumbling in the atmosphere NW of Puerto Rico as mentioned, and now even just south of Jamica. If something gets going in the W. Carribean, I think it has a better chance than the ATL, because the environment looks overall more favorable...
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doug
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Adam
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: Hilliard, Fl (Northeast FL)
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i was wondering if anybody new of a website like this one but for forcasting winter weather, maps and models and such, the winter time gets kinda boring in FL and would like to track and watch some winter storms. thanks a lot. adam
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Just going back to an earlier topic regarding Vince and the perception of a hurricane hitting Europe.
I was reminded of the Great Storm (as it was called) in October 1987. It caused massive amounts of damage along the south coast of England with a loss of life of 18.
If anyone's interested I've found a couple of decent links that are worth viewing. The Great Storm was with winds in excess of 100mph (hurricane force on the Beaufort Scale).
http://www.dandantheweatherman.com/Bereklauw/Octstorm.html
http://www.stvincent.ac.uk/Resources/Weather/Severe/oct87satpic.html
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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A tad bit active in the tropics right now, but nothing imminent.
The broad upper trough is finally starting to kick out to the north & northwest. A broad area of low pressure at the surface extends from 15N/80W to 20N/70W to 25N/65W. Weak low-level circulations are found at 23N/70W (non-convective and in the base of the upper trough) and 24N/66.5W (on the western edge of the broad convective band along the periphery of the trough, but neither appear likely candidates for tropical development. The latter of the two is the most interesting of the two and may ultimately undergo or subtropical development, but nothing tropical there.
The area in the western/central Caribbean is more interesting, however. Underneath the influence of convergence associated with the aforementioned surface trough and very strong diffluence (diverging winds) aloft, convection continues to fire across much of the region. However, it appears as though things could be consolidating near 17.5N/74W, or just east-southeast of Jamaica, in the vicinity of a mid-level vortex. Upper level shear has weakened slightly over the past 24hr and as the upper low continues to move away toward the north could continue to weaken. With the slight approach of a unseasonably strong upper ridge from the northwest in advance of a trough in the central US, upper level conditions should become a bit more favorable over the next couple of days.
If what is out there now lingers over the next two-three days as its upper level forcing weakens and moves away, we could see something develop. However, we've seen convection like this on a daily basis, so I hesitate to call for anything to develop out of that mess from the get-go. Greater model support is being given to the feature discussed above near 24N, with the energy from this feature ultimately feeding into that disturbance as it develops, but I'm not quite sold on that. It's something to watch at this point with a shot at developing, but not a very high one -- the same could be said for anything across the rest of the basin right now.
The West Pacific has seen a typhoon intensify from a TS to a cat. 3 system over the course of 12hr today thanks to a highly favorable upper-level environment induced by an upper level trough passing to the north of the system. Interesting to watch, at least.
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tashina
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 13
Loc: Austin, TX
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Adam,
You might try this site. If they aren't what you are looking for, they probably know who is.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forum/forum.asp?FORUM_ID=55
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Adam, here is a link that you might like. Its free and you just sign in for a password.
http://www.wildonweather.com/forum/index.php?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Almost all the models have a piece of energy from the carribean turning into something. Possibly tropical and heading just where the NE doesn't need anymore rain:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 11 2005 10:13 PM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it isn't a tropical system, but it's definitely tropical-origin: the low that remains of subtropical depression 22 is now a couple hundred miles east of delaware... drifting nne and blowing some convection, but forecast by several globals to be blocked by the strong high pressure descending over the canadian maritimes and pushes northwest and west towards new jersey. while it may not be a tropical cyclone, this system is going to bring a great deal of tropical moisture to the region from new jersey to maine that is already drenched from the shear-off from tammy and the yucatan invest that rode up the coast at the end of last week. joe b had this system arriving up there from a good ways back. i don't agree with him that it will reintensify (say, into a gale center), but do think that he's right about the northeast being due for some severe flooding.
the stuff from the two to seven o clock orbit around the upper low west of bermuda still has no coherent maxima around which a low pressure could form. globals have been predicting one to originate near hispaniola for days, but that still hasn't happened. now that the upper low is lifting out, clark is right in forecasting the upper air conditions to improve. there's been a persistent anomalous westerly flow out of the pacific into the caribbean for days now... probably an artefact of the generally high upper heights over the northern latitudes and low heights in the tropics. interesting that as winter comes on and the longwave pattern deepens, the tendency for all that blocking up there could contribute to some severe arctic outbreaks.. since some of you are already talking winter. as far as the current situation goes, based on how anomalous that fetch off the pacific has been, i'd say that were in for a system or two regardless as the upper low lifts out and things try to right themselves.
we've got a pretty flat weather pattern, with a zonal jet at higher latitudes and above normal heights near the northern u.s./southern canada.. with cutoff lows and below normal heights in the subtropics... resulting in a pretty stagnant, jammed up mess in the tropics. i'm wondering what things will look like when we finally get ouf of it.
HF 2254z11october
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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..Which is quite remarkable considering that we here in Eastern New England were running substantial deficits before this pattern change took place. Some locales were officially in short-term drought status and are by cause of this recent event suddenly above average! Amazing... Some places in N central Ma and S Nh have reported 12"+ since last Friday and many towns in those areas have flash-flood related damage to properties and road infractructures. There was even 1 fatality and some injuries, as well - sadly.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/pns/OCT7-9_2005 ....show some rain total numbers. Note, many of these locales were bone dry and running severe water shortages before hand.
It was really a slow moving cold front with copious tropical ingest running right up and over the top as the surface boundary oozed across the area - shallow air mass and absolutely shocking isentropic lift (stuff cut out for sci-fi). The fun part is, it's still raining!
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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The conclusion I have come to with Joe B is that if you ignore all the hype and the doomsday spins, underneath, much of the time, there is some interesting bit of information. It doesn't seem to bother him to work that way, and he is always entertaining to watch, so I just kind of let all that other stuff roll past.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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There must of been a rain cloud parked over our neighborhood. I had 8 inches in the bucket this morning from yesterday morning. There is 4 inches of standing water accross the road in the entire neighborhood. We didn't that much standing water last year with the three storms. 
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meranto
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 12
Loc: Ridderkerk, Netherlands (51.52...
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It does happen more often, I found 2 good exaples in the Mediterranean Sea:
This one is not so obvious, off the coast of Tunesia, sept 17 2003
This one however bears all the visible characteristics of a hurricane. Note that it formed on january 13th 2005 over SST of 16 degrees C (61 degrees F). It carried 133 km/h (83 mph) winds and the eye survived for more than 30 hours. It had formed out of a cold front and was moving south. Combine all that and you have sinned against the bible for 100%, and still it was there.
I guess meteorology is just not well enough understood to cope with this kind of systems.
IR
VIS
the 'hurricane' between the ionian sea and libya happened in 1995, but that's just semantics. the 2003 system happened.. well, you're dutch so you probably remember how abnormally hot that year was. there are a couple of others w/o documented pics i've seen... one in 1969 and another in 1982 which appeared to be tropical or subtropical. that beven guy probably pays these oddballs the most heed. there are hybrid systems like these in other basins as well, but they don't as often get attention--hard to ignore something in the med. because if it moves somebody gets hit. -HF
Sorry, that 2005 one should off cource be 1995 As a Dutchman I would indeed remember the 2003 summer, if I were there  but I spent that whole summer in the US, missing the first nice and hot summer in Holland in 60 years 
Edited by meranto (Wed Oct 12 2005 12:38 PM)
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 161
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has anyone considered the pressure differential factor?....that a hurricane might need a high temperature and a low temperature differential, with the water to hold it together.....simply put...but to me, logical.
the higher the overall temperature, the higher the energy, and hence...frequency of event is higher. So a cold system behaves in much the same way as a warm...but is rarer....
just a thought...don't tear it up too much....
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The is government operated to protect the citizens and properties of the United States. This would mean that the interest in storms in other climates might interest the individual meterologist but would not be in the realm of the job at the to do more than give it a nod, if they have time. I am afraid that public Television, and internet gives every one the impression that the stands for International Hurricane Center but, it has its boundaries.
The is limited by all politics relating to money and economic impact to the United States and Its properties.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Cindi
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 18
Loc: Panama City, FL
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Regarding SNOW in the Panhandle of Florida...the last time we had snow here was in 1989 (Panama City)...we got about 3 inches (enough to cover the ground) and it lasted the weekend Dec 23 - Dec 25. I'd love to have snow here again!
I was in college at the time and working at the mall... well, instead of CLOSING the mall early so we could all get home safely, they kept it open...you know...they thought MORE MONEY b/c it was snowing right before Christmas...Bridges had to be closed, and some of my friends had to stay with friends because they couldnot get home.
Edited by Cindi (Wed Oct 12 2005 10:28 AM)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the way things are going we're probably going into a quiet time. there have been several systems in the western atlantic that haven't done anything, and the eastpac quit popping storms, which is the usual signal that we've passed the active part of the season and nothing but the odd baroclinic or pattern-pulse system in the western caribbean will get going.
pattern we've been in is supportive for baroclinic type systems... it's effectively suppressed caribbean activity, but the best chance for something would be that model phantom that gets slung from bermuda to the canadian maritimes. thus far it hasn't made any overt appearance. the festering mess near jamaica is forecast by models to persist even after the upper trough to the north pulls away and a more tradition upper ridging pattern builds in. at this rate that won't happen for a while.
aside from last minute tammy and oddball vince... since stan departed stage pacific there hasn't been anything robust looking in the part of the atlantic that troubles us. with an inactive phase and lethargic, persistent shear pattern over the areas that could do anything, whatever comes will be slow if at all.
it's non tropical, but that former subtropical depression is now sliding wsw off the jersey coast. they're getting drenched in the coastal northeast by these systems... with the onshore flow forecast to persist until the westerlies sweep in to clear the area later this week. likely to see severe flooding in the region from new jersey up to maine for the next few days.
HF 1431z12october
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Myles
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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Clark, how does an upper trough create a more favorable environment for tropical systems? I remember you saying that had 3 upper lows around it that helped it to strengthen to a cat 5, and recently you posted that one in the west pacific caused a tropical storm to go to a cat 3 in a very short time frame.(I think it was 12 hours you said) From the looks of radar on that west pacific storm, the upper trough is now causing some shear. So now I'm all confused. Does a trough or upper low only help at a distance, or are there more variables then that? Also, is it more condusive for devlopment for a storm to be firmly tucked under high pressure with no upper lows around, or with less high pressure and upper lows in the vicinity?
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