MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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5PM Update
Vince is now the season's 11th hurricane with winds of 75mph. Weakening is expected from here and it is still expected to become within 36hr.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Vince has formed in an unusual location for Atlantic storms, in the far east Atlantic off the coast of Spain and Portugal about 225 miles northwest of the Madeira Islands.
Vince holds the record of being the highest in the alphabet storm name ever reached in the Atlantic and makes the 2005 season the 2nd most active on record with 20 storms, following only 1933's 21 storm season.
More to come later.
Vince
97L
Edited by SkeetoBite (Tue Oct 11 2005 06:59 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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2005 will go down in history as not only the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record - but the strangest!
The plots show Vince parelleling the coast, but several the computer models actually show the storm making landfall - in Portugal. I bet the global warming enthusiasts are going to have a field day with this one.
With the Caribbean acting up this morning, likely is not far off (even if one of the current invests does not form into a tropical cyclone, something probably will sooner rather than later)... which pretty much means we'll be looking at Alpha before November 1 unless things get quiet in a hurry.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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wasn't expecting they'd classify it, but the persistent eye feature and convective ring with complete occlusion for two days has been waaaay too convincing. those dynamic models pushing it northeast to the iberian peninsula don't agree with any of the globals.. which all turn it nne into an oncoming trough. the official taking it up towards ireland and having it absorbed near 40n is probably the right answer--not much push directly ne.
subtd 22 was quickly declassified last night, but is moving more slowly wnw this morning. still a weak puff of convection, but this is a badly sheared system and i don't totally disagree with dropping it (though it was a bit hasty). strange thing is that more of the global models actually track it now, up towards the nc coast. only chances that it redevelops though would involve the upper low moving nw over it and it becoming re-established in the light-shear zone of the core... or it getting through the subsidence/shear double whammy on the western periphery of the upper trough. it's probably done.
94L persists, looking a tad worse for the wear. it's near 14/54 now plodding ever westward. the environment ahead is supporting a lot of convection, so in another day or two it could potentially become involved with all that. somewhat better chances that it weakens further and fades out.
have to watch the five o clock to ten o clock sweep around that upper low as it's supporting lots of convection and especially because there's some antecedent turning in the low levels along this region. nothing much right now, but there are some interesting-looking areas near the bahamas.
really interesting way to get vince, too.
HF 1553z09october
Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Oct 09 2005 11:55 AM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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Quote:
2005 will go down in history as not only the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record - but the strangest!
The plots show Vince parelleling the coast, but several the computer models actually show the storm making landfall - in Portugal. I bet the global warming enthusiasts are going to have a field day with this one.
With the Caribbean acting up this morning, likely is not far off (even if one of the current invests does not form into a tropical cyclone, something probably will sooner rather than later)... which pretty much means we'll be looking at Alpha before November 1 unless things get quiet in a hurry.
...Strange, because we've actually seen no Cape Verdi transits.. It's been all "Bahama Bombers".
Sadly, the GW enthusiasts probably will blow this out of proportion. Before they do, they should take note of the fact that this system has been persisting over waters that are text-book too cool to support a tropical transition fully, and it is more likely that unique stagnant circumstances have evolved over 24.5C waters to bring a hybrid to bear.
But, as long as we are on the subject of odd-ball features... did you know that there was the first ever hurricane to ever make landfall on the eastern shores Brazil in South America in April 2004?
The Caribbean looks bizarre... Strange sat presentation making it difficult to determine what's really going on.. Looks at times like a TW's are stalling, other times like a old frontal drapes are sticking around as triggers for deep convection. What I think is of utmost concern (or rather should be) is the potent mid-level low that has evolved N of Puerto Rico. This thing is whipping around at a good clip over waters around 28C. Things to look for: deep convection migrating into the core. As it is, the remnant swirl of Tammy was rotating around the N wall of the large cyclonic gyre, like a solar system around a galaxy (beautiful satellite!).. Close up view provided by http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html shows that the llv is escaping the clutches of the larger system however... Also, given that there is still occasional plumes of convection popping off my personal opinion is that HPC dropped the ball too fast... It seems this feature could continue to migrate away up underneath a more favorable enivronment that exists NW; although, in their defense they said last night there was a "remote" possibility for regeneration... In any event, the model is now gaining company in depicting the large U/A low to gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the next 2 days, and with blocking persisting over the N Atlantic and a well teleconnected weakness near/off the SE U.S. Coast, this would likely impart a westward movement should such a feature truly evolve... It's going to be a fun week!
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 09 2005 12:25 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Vince's formation isn't all that much unlike the S. Atlantic storm last season. It'll meet up with baroclinic sources before making landfall, unlike the S. Atlantic storm, but it's an interesting system nonetheless. The persistent eye-like feature probably forced the 's hand.
It's not really the SSTs that are the sole contributor to tropical cyclone development in the midlatitudes -- instead, it is the temperature differential between the SSTs and the upper-levels. If a system has colder-than-normal temperatures at the top of the troposphere, it can over come less-than-critical SSTs to form into a tropical cyclone. Obviously, this requires low shear and all of the other factors that lead to tropical cyclone formation!
Nevertheless, it's rare to have any tropical system east of 20W. The map we made for the season only went out to to 20W, as I didn't think we'd need anything in the teens. Shows how much I know!
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it looks to me like SubTD 22 is beginning to regenerate, and to me looks like a tropical storm at the moment . There is a fairly tight circulation center and deep convection rather close to it. This looks better organized than Cindy in 1999 while a 60mph TS (i bring that one up because it had a similar satellite appearance)
22L
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
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This has been a really interesting season. Think they will use all of the names on the list? Lots of records set this season.
Can someone explain to me about the different eyewalls in a storm? Supposedly, had three, one that hit Orange and Newton
County, a second that hit Beaumont, and then a third which hit all of Southeast Texas. The storm lasted a long time with winds
starting on Friday and not stopping until I think late Saturday or Sunday. Also, do storms ever form in the Caribbean this late
in the year?
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Lysis
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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Actually, this is generally the time where we look to the Caribbean in lieu of other basins, as the “African wave train”, so-called, shuts down. A system at Vince’s latitude would be rare at any time of the year though.
Three eyewalls, eh? I am not sure what you are referring to with that one. Mature hurricanes like undergo what is known as concentric eyewall replacement cycles. This may be what you are talking about. There are a few threads in the hurricane ask/tell forum that talk at length about ewrcs’.
In hurricane , for example, where such a structure was pretty defined, the winds became moderately bad, cleared up a bit between the outer eyewall, and then the major stuff hit. It's all gonna’ be in a big circle though... so your talk of different 'eyes' hitting different locations on a horizontal axis is throwing me off.
EDIT: I didn't want to make a whole new post out of this as I was sort of off topic allready. I have a pertinant question:
The various visible goes loops I’m looking at leave allot to be desired, especially considering how tiny the thing is. While a quikscat pass or something is fine for most of you, it drives me nuts that we have history in the making, and I have no way to capture the aesthetics, so to speak. If Mike or someone else would offer a few alternatives (if they exist), I would be greatly appreciative.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 09 2005 04:19 PM)
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Florida
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I feel after it's all said and done Vince will become a Hurricane, just an old sailors gut feel..
Dave
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Clark
Meteorologist
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The 18Z models were initalized at 60kt -- 70mph -- with a pressure of 991mb. Wouldn't be surprised to see it peak at minimal hurricane intensity; it has the organization to do so and rapid swings up and down are possible with these very small tropical cyclones. It'll probably go out in a hurry when it does, but it's pretty close to some of those "furthest east" records right now.
Edit: they did go with 65kt/75mph -- hurricane intensity -- at 5p. It's not so much that the storm has intensified (though it probably has a little) as they are likely catching up to it's prior intensity.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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about the latitude, it is not all that odd to see a storm at that latitude, it is due east of North Carolina. The unusual part about the latitude is how far east it formed at 34N
latest advisory is Hurricane Vince, 75 mph, 987mb
Edited by Rabbit (Sun Oct 09 2005 04:49 PM)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
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I wonder what Europe thinks of Hurricane Vince if they even know about what are the chances it will hit Europe as at least a tropical storm or depression that be really scary if it hit as a hurricane.
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I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.
Edited by NONAME (Sun Oct 09 2005 05:00 PM)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well i live in Europe (well actually the UK but part of Europe i guess) and i think i can safely say most of Europe is blissfully unaware that there is a Hurricane heading towards Portugal. Admitedly, it almost certainly wont hit land as a Hurricane, but the forecast track has it coming pretty close to the northern coast of Portugal by late Monday night or early Tuesday. Additionally, the Madeira Islands which are a Portugese territory, are pretty close to this one, and the outer bands have been affecting the islands with wind gusts to 39 mph - Tropical Storm force! I think there is the remote possibility that it may make landfall as a weak Tropical Storm, but it will have to hold off against increasingly cool SST's and an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. If it does reach mainland Europe as a classified system, i guess it will be yet another 1st 
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I don't know about having three eyewalls, but it did appear to have a partial inner-eyewall to the north and a partial outer-eyewall to the south when it came ashore, the result of a poorly executed eyewall replacement cycle. The inner core of was disorganized when it hit land, but very intense convection on the northern eyewall kept it from weakening very quickly.
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Some of us do that's for sure. But, as Rich pointed out, it's unlikely that most Europeans will ever find out about it - it's rather unusual to get hurricanes in this neck of the woods as you know. Having said that I recall some years ago when the UK was hit by a hurricane ( or more correctly, hurricane-force winds of over 100mph). Search the web and you will find stories and pictures of Cornwall (an English county) that took the brunt of it.
Check out the site for the lastest tracking with Google Earth.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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I was really interested in HF storms a while back. There are actually a dozen or two HF (hurricane force) cyclones each year, with most allegedly coming out of the mid-latitudes. January is their climatological peak for the North Atlantic. Interestingly, observations show that the storms are stronger pressure wise in our basin than in the North Pacific. I still don't really understand all the meteorology associated with them, but (correct me if I am wrong) they are defined by an extreme temperature gradient that surrounds the low. Hurricane conditions are always found to the immediate south (the ‘cold’ side) of the secluded warm center, and are generally not far removed like we are used to thinking. To accent on Dave's comments, if you are interested, do some research on the 87' England storm, which is probably the most infamous. They are difficult to forcast, and alot of people were caught offguard.
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 09 2005 06:34 PM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
It's not really the SSTs that are the sole contributor to tropical cyclone development in the midlatitudes -- instead, it is the temperature differential between the SSTs and the upper-levels. If a system has colder-than-normal temperatures at the top of the troposphere, it can over come less-than-critical SSTs to form into a tropical cyclone.
Thanks for explaining because I was wondering about that.
I've been going to the navy site because can't find any other sat images of Vince. What a petite perfectly-formed cat 1 hurricane. This has got to be one of the front-runners for the strangest season on record.
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josef
Registered User
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Posts: 8
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Hello!
My name is Josef, am portuguese and live in Oporto-Portugal. A few minutes ago i see in cable tv an information about a possible hurricane "Vince" here in Portugal.
Someone tel me if it´s possible?
And, if "Vince" toutch Portugal what are the consequenses, because Portugal don´t have a history of this kind of problems.
Sorry my english. Thanks.
Edited by josef (Sun Oct 09 2005 06:42 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Hello!
My name is Josef, am portuguese and live in Oporto-Portugal. A few minutes ago i see in cable tv an information about a possible hurricane "Vince" here in Portugal.
Someone tel me if it´s possible?
And, if "Vince" toutch Portugal what are the consequenses, because Portugal don´t have a history of this kind of problems.
Sorry my english. Thanks.
Josef,
Well, it's hard to say because it's never happened before, at least not in recorded history. Based upon the satellite images, Vince is a very tiny hurricane so the area of impact will likely be relatively small, and the storm SHOULD weaken - the water in the northeast Atlantic just isn't warm enough to support tropical storms or hurricanes. Of course, neither is the water of the southwest Atlantic, where there was an unnamed hurricane in 2004. Heck, this year has just been so strange. My best advice would be to pay attention to the local weather people.
By the way folks.... it looks like STD 22 may yet live again....
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Oct 09 2005 06:50 PM)
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: UK
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Look at my website Josef. You will see that Vince is pointing towards the top of Portugal.
I think there is a very good chance that winds will not be as strong when it gets nearer.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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