typhoon_tip
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Cuba isnt a mostly flat landmass.....It is mostly moutainous except in the extreme western half of the island.
Actually, if you go to...
http://www.geographyiq.com/countries/cu/Cuba_geography.htm
...and scroll down to "Terrain" it says,"Mostly flat to rolling plains, with rugged hills and mountains in the southeast"
You will find the same description pervasive around credible information sources, which certainly justifies my assertion that Cuba is "relatively flat"
peace
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scottsvb
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Well in general Hispaniola can generally kill off systems due to it having the highest elvs. Cuba is just narrow and does have the ability of weakening a system greatly depending on if its strengthning or not coming to landfall..In general it could weaken it maybe 20-30mph or just destroy it...matters on how fast the system is moving at that time and also where it crosses and at what angle. If it crosses western cuba it can still weaken about what I posted above,,,,if it crosses central or eastern at a speed of 10mph or less then it could be alot greater.
Edited by scottsvb (Sat Oct 15 2005 05:35 PM)
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scottsvb
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LOL @ relatively flat!
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typhoon_tip
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I actually read a paper while as an undergrad about tropical cyclone interaction with cuba vs. hispanola. interestingly, hispanola has saved the u.s. (statistically) much more often that cuba for system interacting with both land masses... goes to show how much 2,200ft mountains - not really the depth of the planetary boundary layer - have much less impact over 9,000 ft mountains...
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scottsvb
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That doesnt have much todo with it in elevation.....I mean,,,2,000-9,000 tops are no different... With Hispaniola,,usually systems travel from E-W across it..while Cuba its S-N only taking a few hours to cross. So that is why Hispaniola destroys more systems plus more waves come across from that direction.
Elevation (yes) does have a impact,,but once the landmass becomes more the flat,,,then any hilly terrain will deminish the straight windflow......another example is being on water compared to a forest or just normal terrain,,,,there is no resistance on water to stop the flow.
BTW you said your a met ? Or did I miss read that? Where you get your degree if you did?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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URNT11 KNHC 151748
97779 17394 70237 87100 79200 99005 72901 /8053
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 03
(i think they are just off of Cancun...or southern GOM.... heading through the channel down to our system...)
pretty sure they will find atleast a TD...maybe a TS
sat vis
**the GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative has just be moved to 98L****
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 15 2005 06:07 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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actually...elevation plays more of role, more like a tremendous, gigantic role... distance island, believe it or not, is less and inhibitor than taking a circulation field and attempting to impinge it against a wall of mountains that pokes up above the mean boundary-pause... In the end, loss of lower boundary layer coupling with the heat content of the SST is will is a factor, too, but in terms of distruction of established mechanical wind momentum, mountains of more important.
the boundary-pause is the level where the atmosphere becomes less influenced by friction with the land and what is refered to as Eikeman Layer turbulance in the pbl its self. Above about 3,000 to 5,000, feet depending on your thermodynamic values and advection parameters (i.e, strong latter pgf can help in establishing a deeper mixing level and a huge potential instability will also turn the boundary layer over and mix to greater heights), is where the turbulence of the boundary layer gives way to gradient wind. If a topographical obstruction to wind field extends to a meager 2,200 feet or so, then this does not imply enough vertical extent to inhibit the entraining air flow. It will be lesser inhibited along the established angular momentum and the circulation of the system may just run right over the top and barely be touched... . Cuba does not offer this disruption. There has been extensive study about tropical cyclone interaction with Cuba; I'm not making this stuff up...
Yes, I have a formal degree in Meteorology..
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151748
97779 17394 70237 87100 79200 99005 72901 /8053
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 03
(i think they are just off of Cancun...or southern GOM.... heading through the channel down to our system...)
pretty sure they will find atleast a TD...maybe a TS
sat vis
**the GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative has just be moved to 98L****
The system is at least a TD, based on visible imagery - but the majority of the deep clouds are west of the LLC.
The SSD Floater has not been moved to 98L, however... which is kind of strange. Maybe they will move it later today.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ron Basso
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New 12Z has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs. 
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
New 12Z has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
R U serious! Where are you getting the run so soon.. Please, do tell (pant pant)....
Oh ...man, you know... I don't even have to see the run... I know exactly what is going on... There is a negative aspect to the NAO, probably indicative of a height blockage near Davis Straight and Greenland (maybe not too well picked up by the - and why would it)...But, I bet there is a low nestling into the Ohio Valley....
Uh oh - ...If you there is such a cataclysmic bomb as the ...then the forecast becomes entirely perfunctory there after... Balancing indices with well behaved synoptics (which is to say, synoptics that are a sensible fit for established teleconnections - trust me, this method ALWAYS works as an immediate correction technique) then,.......ah, don't know how else to put it but the unthinkable would certainly be plausible... (I think we both know what that is..)
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Storm Hunter
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wow talk about some dry air moving off the east coast!!! 
water vapor
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
New 12Z has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
150kts isn't just a major huricane. It's a /Rita hurricane (150 kts = 172.5 mph).
That's an ominous forecast at this point in time. Unfortunately, the intensity models this season have not been that far off - predicting the rapid intensification of both and .
Has a single Atlantic Basin season EVER had 3 cat 5 hurricanes before? It's premature to say that we'll have cat 5 in a few days :?: but... if it happens... I may have to seriously contemplate moving to Alaska!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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typhoon_tip
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ok, ok...so ...using your url, i see! WOW.
Indeed, it does appear that there is a disturbance and associated lower tropospheric reflection migrating smartly toward ESE through the Nation's Heartland - about 120-126 hours...
Extrapolate... The implied destination of these feature seems to suggest this would almost HAVE to come careening due N, hooking NNE in time... In fact, I did read on here that Ivon's track rings a bell... I like that. I also like variants therein for obvious reasons..
In any event, man, that is a terrifying visage of a model run, ay?
(off-topic material removed)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2005 04:19 PM)
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Steve H1
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Yes, its showing (the ) a 150 knot 950 mb storm at 120. I am not buying that solution at the moment.....at least not yet. Most of the 12Z models are not really developing the system much at all in the 144 time frame. This may be why the Euro is going with the solution HF pointed out earlier, with a split system; one going NE and the other hanging back in the Caribbean until next weekend. It also may be why the is shooting the system NNE real fast, and more than likely too strong.
12Z Euro Update.....places cane over western Cuba into SW Florida late Thursday, then to the east coast of Florida early Saturday. Still way early, and the Euro can have a west bias. Maybe we can watch model trends go further east staying away from the US. Somehow I doubt it though.
Edited by Steve H1 (Sat Oct 15 2005 06:30 PM)
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scottsvb
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Your right tip,,elevation does play a major role..thats what I said...but your missing the point of what I explained.
Cuba isnt mostly flat....its terrain is hilly with most of its moutains over the eastern end...the central part does have some decent tops also but not as numerous....the western 1/4 is mostly flat.
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Hugh
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Quote:
Yes, its showing (the ) a 150 knot 950 mb storm at 120. I am not buying that solution at the moment.....at least not yet. Most of the 12Z models are not really developing the system much at all in the 144 time frame. This may be why the Euro is going with the solution HF pointed out earlier, with a split system; one going NE and the other hanging back in the Caribbean until next weekend. It also may be why the is shooting the system NNE real fast, and more than likely too strong.
Ok... hold the phone.
150kts at 950mb is not 150kts at the surface. It's 120kts (using 80% reduction which I think is appropriate at 950mb)... which is "only" cat 4, not cat 5. Not that that is much better.
The current kind of frightens me in terms of the movement - turning it NNW toward... well, toward ME...
ETA: scottsvb: I think this system will only go over the western tip of Cuba, if that.
Hmm... looking at the visible loop on FNMOC... it looks like it's moving northward already, but that is probably just because it is still forming.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 15 2005 06:31 PM)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Ok, well...my point, as derived from physical understanding and formal education is that your "hills" and so forth do not offer the inhibition that you elucidate... "that" is the point...
let it go - i don't care..
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Storm Hunter
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almost there.....west of cayman islands.... in the carribean..... about another hr i think until vortex... (center fix) if there is one... which i think there is....
URNT11 KNHC 151827
97779 18234 70202 85200 76200 06016 68//1 /5762
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 04
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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like i said.... the storm relative close-up has been switched.... not sure why either of the floaters from ssd haven't be moved... would expect a call to move on of them.... think it would be floater #1 ( #2 is on the SE GOM)
here's a pic.... it will take about another hour to get a good loop out of the link
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Oct 15 2005 06:44 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
like i said.... the storm relative close-up has been switched.... not sure why either of the floaters from ssd haven't be moved... would expect a call to move on of them.... think it would be floater #1 ( #2 is on the SE GOM)
here's a pic.... it will take about another hour to get a good loop out of the link
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative
...don't mean to start a debate. this will be more for muse! but...doesn't it almost look like an eye?
actually, i made mention to the fact that the ssd's haven't started making images.. I got lambasted for merely suggesting that it might be for cost-cutting and trying to terminate the season early. there was a significant lull since ; though a lot of hype of events that never came to pass - no doubt.. that could have them redirecting man-power... i'm only mentioning it because i am limited as to my sat sources and it bothers me that everyone gets to see this but me...
argh! thanks for the urls!
peace
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