Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
|
|
It seems that some model runs from a few days ago actually hinted at two systems from this area. One piece heading more towards South Florida and the other looping out into the GOM and then back to Tampa Bay. I wonder if this is playing into some of the comments made in the 's discussion about genesis. Have not seen the latest runs to see if this is still ocurring.
--------------------
Jim
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the , what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the , what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
I will answer it then.
Sea surface pressure is what you want for . Vorticity isn't public to my knowledge.
But pressure is self explanatory, if you understand what it means. Vorticity is the potential spinning, If I remember, in the atmosphere at various pressure levels. Basically, stick to sea surface pressure if you have no idea what the others mean.
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the , what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
I will answer it then.
Sea surface pressure is what you want for . Vorticity isn't public to my knowledge.
But pressure is self explanatory, if you understand what it means. Vorticity is the potential spinning, If I remember, in the atmosphere at various pressure levels. Basically, stick to sea surface pressure if you have no idea what the others mean.
...I understand what the parameters are and mean...he wanted to know "what do I put in"? what does he mean by "IN"
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
If you want to look at the vorticity output. You will have to select the "upper air" section of the particular model that you are using.
It is possible to have a vortice (spin) at the surface and not at higher level...example: tropical depression or wave. It's also possible to have an elevated vortice that may or may not develop a surface reflection.
Similar to a Funnel Cloud and a Tornado. The funnel cloud is elevated and the Tornado is on the ground. By NWS definitions.
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
11 pm is out. says gradually organizing. New track bodes badly for gulf coast. Much more definitive northward turn.
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
If you want to look at the vorticity output. You will have to select the "upper air" section of the particular model that you are using.
It is possible to have a vortice (spin) at the surface and not at higher level...example: tropical depression or wave. It's also possible to have an elevated vortice that may or may not develop a surface reflection.
Similar to a Funnel Cloud and a Tornado. The funnel cloud is elevated and the Tornado is on the ground. By NWS definitions.
...oh, I see what happened here... You guys were on a topic or something, probably having to do with a user-interface and some url, and the person who originally asked me the question assumed that i was also tagging along with the coversation...which i was not...
Now I get it... sure, if a model requires input parameters, you should know what they mean...agreed then...
|
weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
|
|
how big is this system predicted to get?
|
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
|
|
Quote:
how big is this system predicted to get?
Right now, at 5 days, Cat 2.
--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
|
weatherwatcher2
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Parrish florida
|
|
Just when I tholught we were done here we go again!
|
sara33
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
|
|
Okay,
So Clark mentioned earlier a "possible hit between Cerdar Key and Sarasota" I am in St. Petersburg(Tampa Bay) and have already written OFF Hurricane Saeson 2005!(of course Murphy's Law kicks in)Really guys, what is the chance??? has been very accurate in forecasting this year. so I am not liking what I see, but the early models are more in favor of a southward motion. I guess I am looking for some reasurance:)Thanks Everyone...You guys are GREAT!
Christine 
|
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
|
|
Quote:
Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
Typhoon Tip:
This is becuase the Hurricane Heat Content (HHC) map heavily deals with not just the SST but also how deep that warm water penetrates. If you look at the depth of the 26C isotherm and compare it to the HHC map you will find that they are a fairly good match.
26C Isotherm depth: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
This is the best looking TD I have ever seen (haha...that is the same as saying this is the best looking TD I've seen this season).
It seems again that outflow was so critical. The outflow was well-defined already by Friday afternoon (looking at 1800Z & 2100Z upper level winds on the 14th), when the low was centered over Jamaica.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
debwire
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 9
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
|
|
I'm also in St. Petersburg and as some of the current images indicate, we're potentially within that cone of threat. I certainly wouldn't like to see another hurricane hit anywhere but for the Tampa Bay area, should we ultimately be the target, please don't let this scenario be how it all plays out with (or any future hurricane):
http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/worstcase.html
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Re heat content...they have certainly gone down significantly since a month ago, for the entire GOM.
Floater 1 now over TD24.
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
Quote:
Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
Typhoon Tip:
This is becuase the Hurricane Heat Content (HHC) map heavily deals with not just the SST but also how deep that warm water penetrates. If you look at the depth of the 26C isotherm and compare it to the HHC map you will find that they are a fairly good match.
26C Isotherm depth: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif
yeah, I figured it was the thermocline...
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Not sure what the real big difference between the two plots is, typhoon_tip. The hurricane heat content product is one that also takes into account sub-surface waters. Anywhere you see SSTs of ~27C or greater on the one map, you do see a non-zero (even if it is 1-10 kcal/cm^2) value of HHC; do note that the SST map only goes out to 60W (as noted in the header). However, those waters in the north Atlantic are only warm at the very top; the waters just beneath the surface are much cooler (<26C) and thus do not provide any heat content for the storm to use to maintain/increase its intensity. Waters in the Caribbean and Gulf, however, are warm to very large depths, bringing about very high values of HHC -- especially associated with the loop current and the climatologically warm waters in the NW Caribbean.
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Quote:
Not sure what the real big difference between the two plots is, typhoon_tip. The hurricane heat content product is one that also takes into account sub-surface waters. Anywhere you see SSTs of ~27C or greater on the one map, you do see a non-zero (even if it is 1-10 kcal/cm^2) value of HHC; do note that the SST map only goes out to 60W (as noted in the header). However, those waters in the north Atlantic are only warm at the very top; the waters just beneath the surface are much cooler (<26C) and thus do not provide any heat content for the storm to use to maintain/increase its intensity. Waters in the Caribbean and Gulf, however, are warm to very large depths, bringing about very high values of HHC -- especially associated with the loop current and the climatologically warm waters in the NW Caribbean.
As I laid mention just moments ago, I had reasoned that they must be talking the thermocline, which indeed deals more with a vertical mixing layer... But, either way, if you see ~27C, that doesn't mean that it is "O" now does it?
As far as "60W" goes, I'm looking at a still anam that covers the entire wester/sw Atlantic Basin, when I'm looking at : http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif... That clearly shows a warmer surface...However, I am willing to concede that this may be shallow, which is (quite frankly) hard to believe because a) the Gulf stream is there and that is 100 meters deep in some cases, and
b) there hasn't been anything to process the upper oceanic heat content this season in that district of the open ocean. Nor, has there been a substantial arctic outbreak spreading seawards from the continent.
Sorry, I still believe there may be a statistical disparity between what the ir impression of the SST is and these plots at the other site are. But, that's just opinion until I can see a better write up that tells us what the physics of the derivation and methodology is beyond the supposition of this forum
peace.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 16 2005 04:37 AM)
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
The other thing is that http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif .....does not jive with 0 content in the other url, either... not the outline of the region that is greater than 0 that is... Maybe they mean "virtual" 0
|
typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 576
|
|
Ok, now that I am catching up...http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif is a better depiction I must say! bravo...
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
