MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression 24 has become Tropical Storm . The 21st named storm. This is the highest the modern naming convention has reached to, and ties the 1933 record of number of tropical storms for the year. There exist no more 2005 names for the Atlantic basin.
's track has shifted more westward, and the official track calls for it to clip the Yucatan. Trends have been toward the west, so at the moment I still think a more westward motion is the most likely, generally falling along the National Hurricane Center's track.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
There may be an eventual turn north, so those along the gulf will want to keep a watch on it. But for now, discussing landfall in any particular United States location is premature. I'm not sold on the ridge breaking down enough for it to move much north at all, at least in the next several days.
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
At this time it seems prudent that we watch it, but I'd imagine those on the Yucatan should be watching it more. I'm in the camp that thinks it will stay further south and west, but it is still vital to watch trends over time. We have time to watch and prepare if something were to occur.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Wilma
Animated Model Plot of
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
Both the 06Z and the 00Z are showing a northward movement between the Yucatan and Cuba followed by a hook east into FL. The rest of the models show either clipping the tip of the Yucatan of fully impacting the Yucatan. is calling for possibly a Cat 4 again, though not even sustaining that until the Yucatan. I suspect now that we have a TS, we'll get better model initialization and we might start to see some more reliable (and less divergent) tracks coming out.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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What concerns me most this a.m. is the . This model has been the outlier all season but has tended to be rather reliable. I am afraid the westward motion will change now with better initialization.... we shall see.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Well.... this is interesting! The newest appears to have shifted back toward the western tip of Cuba, and the LBAR is even further east, calling for to cross near Havana (I think that's where Havana is), and then move across the peninsula south of Laka Okechobe(sp?). These models make the forecast seem much more reasonable than the earlier runs did (which were all west of the forecast)... but they also bring to light the fact that we just don't know this far out where is going to go.
Edit: I just saw others posting while I was typing the above.
Random: The models were in very good agreement earlier, but now the latest runs seem to diverge again - or maybe they've just shifted back to the east and the models that are showing a Yucatan landfall have not been updated yet (I know these models are older runs than the current and LBAR, but don't know when they will be updated).
It could be yet another frustrating week along the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Edit 2: WU has updated the , which now calls for a turn to the north and eventually NNE, looks like the Big Bend or south of there longer-term.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:07 AM)
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Actually there are three that call for it moving into the GOM. THe 6Z now has it crossing west central Florida as well as the . The Euro also moves it into the southern GOM after brusing it into the Cozumel. The and UKMET have the western solution across the Yucatan. The doesn't strengthen much at all, but it hasn't since Friday. So the Camp is split down the middle. Problem is IMO, its a slow mover, and if it waits in the GOM for a shortwave to pick it up it could be a problem. But this is all speculation. For all we know it could plow into Honduras and fizzle as a TS. Future runs will vaisilate back and forth. We'll wait and see. Cheers!!
You're right; the 6Z has shifted right; further right than the path, and much quicker.
Edited by Steve H1 (Mon Oct 17 2005 08:16 AM)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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Well there goes the impressive convection off to the south again. At first glance it looked like our errant toddler of a TS had decided to make a beeline for Nicaragua when most of us weren't watching, but looking at the circulation and then the upper level winds for the last 24 hrs convinced me she is still going nowhere. The dry air has impinged on the outflow to the NW, but the boundary between them is not moving, and there is still good outflow. I have to admit this really is painfully slow development; patience is still the order of the day. So, we'll have to see what another 24-48 hours brings.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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[Brought forward from previous thread}
So, TD24 finally blossoms into Tropical Storm . It's taken what seems like an age since the classified her as a TD and for a while it looked like she was stagnating. I've seen the model runs like everyone else and it appears to me now that the only thing that's predictable about a tropical system is it's unpredictability. now has it moving over the Yucatan and into the GOM but, who knows really, may decide to take a turn to the west and move over central America into the Pacific. We'll have to give her more time before she truly makes her intentions known.
Just my slant on things.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Wilma another erratic and frustrating storm to forecast.
It is a bit comforting to see the modeling continue to move Westward but
how much faith can we really put into the models when the storm is
moving so slowly.
It's going to be a wait and see event all week.
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
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It seems all the models are moving north instead of west now. What causes the models to swing so quickly with such a slow moving storm?
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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Isn't it true that landfall connot be accurately predicted more than a couple of days out? It is important not to concentrate
on the black line but look at the cone. I have heard several people here complain about the forecast of 's track and I
have tried explain that two days out they were saying our area. You can't expect
them to know five days out. I think the problem is the media and the hype with the big storms.
But we were in the cone for days. I thought they did a good job.
Wilma looks like she may be tougher to forecast but of course the Gulf coast should keep an eye on her just in case. I was hoping we
would be through with the big storms and just reach Alpha with small ones (to set a record). But of course, may decide
not to become a hurricane. We will just have to wait and see. By the way, does anyone think this will be the last one or do ya'll
think there will be an Alpha?
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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 73
Loc: UK
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Could continue heading south or southwest and not make another turn, methinks she could. Even if she turns west in the next 12 hours I think she would be catching land which would knock her out somewhat.
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Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This is only what I've heard on our local news, but they seem to be valid reasons: 1) the HP system in the GOM is expected to move westward in a couple of days. I believe this feature is what is (for now) keeping from moving anywhere. Once this system retreats westward, it will allow to move in a general northerly direction.
2) There is a cold front coming down from the Plains that could pick up once she starts moving more northward and depending on where is and when it picks it up, will probably be where eventually ends up.
The "where" cannot be answered right now, though. I would say that everyone from Florida to N.O. needs to be paying attention to this storm. I do know that our local weather stations are a bit more concerned with this storm *at this time* based on these two weather features.
Hope that helps and hope that I explained things correctly! If not, anyone can feel free to correct my post! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Just think of as a self propelled hot air vaccuum. She will follow the hot temperatures, and the path of least resistance. If you figure where that is, you will know where she is going. If she finds some deep warm eddies she will take her time over them. She will be the clean up person for this season and will be finishing off all the spots that the other storms did not get.,
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Quote:
Isn't it true that landfall connot be accurately predicted more than a couple of days out?
yes it is, asking over and over again for the mets to give a landfall location is ridiculous, but some do it anyway.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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sara33
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
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About the Models...
The 00Z and the 6z, etc.. are those different run times?
Also, I see that the 00Z Had the storm West and the 6Z has a more W and then NE Component taking it into the West Coast of Florida. So I guess each run can be pretty different from the one prior.
Thanks for all of the knowledge
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I have the most faith in the model,it has been very good in the past.It is now well east of the track.Again this all comes down to timing of different factors.The more time that it does not go west,will mean a more east track down the road.I agree that all of the state of Florida and points west need to watch this one close,as it looks like it could be a major cane.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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How true that is! If you think about, we really don't know where it will make landfall UNTIL it actually MAKES landfall. Yes, of course, the closer a storm gets to making landfall, the narrower the cone gets....but it has not been unusual for a storm to make landfall 50 miles to the left or right just as it goes in.
We'll have to be patient with this one. There is no way that anyone can predict where this thing will go right now. Just be prepared and you'll be okay.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Maybe I'm missing something but where is the grid - All I get is blue/black garbage??? 
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Hey Coll, you are right, looking at all the long range models, , , and all seem to pretty tight with their track (and it's early) and and UKM seem to take a similar path. It is and will be a wait and see probably till tomorrow for more consensus and even then as you said as we had seen with , anything can change in a hurry.
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
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MM5 has been this way for better than a week now???
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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