Thunderbird12
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Interesting to see the various -based models shift way back to the right in the 06Z runs. The 12Z runs will be interesting to view. The last SHIPS run is more aggressive with intensity, taking the storm up to 90 knots in 96 hours. The fact that finally strengthened a little probably has something to do with that... it seems like recent intensity change is one of the inputs to that model, based on how it behaves.
The fact that is drifting south now, rather than west, could make a big difference in the eventual path. If that persists for any length of time, that means the system will potentially be further removed from any weak westerly steering current that may try to develop to its north in the near-term, so it will be further east when the stronger northerly steering current is expected to develop in a few days. Of course, if it gets far enough south, it may end up getting too far south to be picked up and instead drift around for awhile until likely impacting Central America at some point. I don't know of any models that have a solution along those lines, but when there is quite a bit of model divergence in track, you shouldn't throw out the persistence (extrapolated) track out of hand.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Oct 17 2005 03:22 PM)
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Beaumont, TX
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I know this ties the record set in 1933. But does anyone know if formed earlier in the season than the 21st storm in 1933?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Changed my mind a bit since my earlier post. Looking at the larger sat image of the Caribbean and Western ATL instead of the floater, it is easy to see now that the ridging has moved a little further SE and the boundary is more well-defined, so that may factor into the movement. I don't think the high in the GOM has moved significantly though. At first I thought it had tucked itself a little into the BOC and then moved a little bit to the east, but now I can't that clearly. Looking at the EastPac sat was helpful in seeing that it is just staying put. Also, I think the inertia of the strong convection to the SSW, which is now getting sheared to the SW (she moved to an area with more shear), was possibly pulling a bit to the SW in lieu of strong steering currents.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Tazmanian93
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Wilma has formed earlier than the 21st in 1933, the 21st in 1933 formed on 11-15 and lasted through 11-17. It formed along Lat 11.9N Lon 79.8W and ended @ Lat 12.3N Lon 85.2W
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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Steeler Fan
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Although someone beat me to the info. on the last storm of 1933, the following is a link to an article showing all the 1933 storms, along with tracking maps of each storm, in case you are interested...
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/sun-sentinel/hurricane/at1933.asp
Based on how late that season continued to produce storms, we are not out of the woods by any stretch at this date.
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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emackl
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Here's a little info from the HPC:
"ENOUGH OF A TROUGH EXISTS IN THE OH VLY
FROM DAY 5 ONWARD TO ALLOW TO RECURVE ALONG A CLIMO TRACK
ACRS THE FL PENINSULA."
Yuck, not what I want to hear right now. I want this season to be over.
Jackie 
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Steve H1
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T'Bird, I think you meant to the right. The 6z models, specifically the and the , have shifted to the right. One thing to be aware of. At this time of year storms, if intensifying far enuf south early in the forecast period and moving slowly, can build a heat ridge to the north that forces them westward. This was true with Mitch and Keith (although Mitch had two strong ridges that combined north of him from the east and west). If this type of ridge pumps up, you won'ts see get further north than 20 degrees. Doubtful, but it can happen. Anyhow, 11 am should be out now, Cheers!! BTW Margie, I was watching the ridge and thought it was backing into the BOC also. But its moving quite slowly if at all.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
Quote:
IF you go by models, only one major model suggests a northward motion, and this is what concerns me for the US, but most of the models continue it westward.
Both the 06Z and the 00Z are showing a northward movement between the Yucatan and Cuba followed by a hook east into FL. The rest of the models show either clipping the tip of the Yucatan of fully impacting the Yucatan. is calling for possibly a Cat 4 again, though not even sustaining that until the Yucatan. I suspect now that we have a TS, we'll get better model initialization and we might start to see some more reliable (and less divergent) tracks coming out.
Amen!
I wrote an extensive post about this very subject matter late last night...
First off, the is parameterized off the data so the tandem motion once one is established is not that surprising – just btw. They do vary some (usually) but in the long run, the and the will tend to shake hands over TS motions, more frequently then either would agree with a different model group altogether.
Secondly, the right shift was entirely expected; moreover, it was expected to take place when finally established a better physical presents in the area, then subsequently as an interaction with the westerlies took place, a more realistic impression of events would unfold. The suspicion was that the models just had too weak of a system to deal with prior, so they shallowed her out – summarily inducing telemetry based on a ‘none-wilma’ environmental flow. That flow indeed would be across the Yucatan Peninsula in such a case, so naturally, seeing the even more westerly 00Z (which still did not have a solid fix in initialization or parametrics at that time) made a lot of sense.. But, at 06Z we have a deeper initialization, more solid presentation and boom – the models are presto-wizzo angst for the NE Gulf again.
…The million dollar question for me is, ‘are there 06Z runs of the ECM, UKMET, , , SHIPS…etc?’ I imagine there are, ‘but are they available to the public’? If they are, I don’t know where to find them. My hunch is that these other models will begin shifting right at 12Z – should be coming out shortly.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 03:31 PM)
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Thunderbird12
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Steve, you are correct... I meant to say to the right, though I managed to actually say completely the opposite of what I meant. I corrected the original post to avoid any further confusion.
I am also reminded of Mitch with this storm. As I recall, at least some models kept insisting that Mitch would take a turn to the N and NE, but it never happened. Whether or not becomes strong enough to significantly impact the environmental steering currents remains to be seen. Also, having a large, cutoff upper low over the SW U.S. increases the uncertainty in the eventual synoptic pattern, since models can have difficulty with the movement and intensity of such features after they cutoff from the main flow.
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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The wrote: WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE AND MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO"
Based upon this, there maybe an adjustment of the and in the 12Z. So I believe these model runs will be more telling then the 06Z and maybe more similiar to the previous 00Z runs. So in my opinion, I would probably look for a slightly change in the and to the west or left. It will be interesting to say the least. I think these runs should be out pretty soon..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
The wrote: WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT
CHANGES WITH THE AND MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY ARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO"
Based upon this, there maybe an adjustment of the and in the 12Z. So I believe these model runs will be more telling then the 06Z and maybe more similiar to the previous 00Z runs. So in my opinion, I would probably look for a slightly change in the and to the west or left. It will be interesting to say the least. I think these runs should be out pretty soon..
Do you really tnink so? Do you think that a all of 40naut miles is significant enough to alter a track guidance by as much as 400 miles by day 6? Granted, small shifts initially can have a profound affect out in time, but the synoptics of the region do not support a w motion, provided is a deeper system. We'll see...
Also, this thing is incorporating a very large circumvellate... cu between the Caymans and Cuba are moving curvi-linearly within... This thing has a lot of room of profound intensification.
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NewWatcher
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I'm confused because I thought you said the other day that you are a meteorologist.... how can that be but you dont know about the different models, where to find them and when they run? Just curious....
But to answer, no the others dont run every 6 hours that I know of... you will have to wait for the 12Z runs which come out at varying times this afternoon.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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Thunderbird12
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The 12Z has shifted back to the left (and this time I really mean left) through 84 hours, and appears to be just to the right of the official track, bringing the system into the Yucutan Channel just east of the peninsula. I have not seen anything past 84 hours from the 12Z run yet.
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doug
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Don't see any cases here over the last 36 hours that this system WILL NOT recurve...so if there is such a case I would like to hear that one...The first ridge will erode to the SW and then the replacement ridge, and weaker ridge will be moved east by the next trough which is pretty vigorous over the SW now..that will creat the weakness to the NE and recurvature...this is the prevailing understanding.
So If there is a case for the recurvature not occuring please let us know...
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doug
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Sorry Thunderbird, but I do not see that in the I am looking at. I am at day 5 of the 12Z and do not see it in the Bay of Campeche. I do not see such a drastic change as you.. I am not sure what you are looking at ?
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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NewWatcher
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml
here is a link for the 12Z for saturday... i dont see the BOC thing either
At the end of the run, the shows moving NE
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Mitch, although a mere shadow of itself did cross the peninsula eventually ( Naples area) over a week after it made landfall and reaped havoc in C.A. But the point is it did go north and NE eventually.
However the comparisom to Mitch is not otherwise inappropriate.
This system is now involving a huge area under its circulation and the wrapping of the moisutre east of the center should take only a matter of hours now...look for rapid intensification on Tuesday, then it will begin to assert itself on the surrounding environment a little more and we should see more consistency in the forecast models I think.
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doug
Edited by doug (Mon Oct 17 2005 04:33 PM)
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Steve H1
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I don't think T'Bird said BOC, he said just east of the Yucatan Peninsula, which is what the 12Z shows at 84.
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Thunderbird12
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I think we have a misunderstanding... the 12Z brings into the Yucutan Channel between the Yucutan peninsula and Cuba, with the center coming close to but staying just east of the Yucutan peninsula. It never goes into the Bay of Campeche.
After about 90 hours, makes a hard right turn in the 12Z (sharper than the previous run), passes very close to Key West at around 138 hours, and then moves into the Everglades region of SW Florida, passing over the Miami area before heading into the Atlantic at about 150 hours.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Main player will be the and .....CMC and jumps around alot,,,,UKMET isnt that bad...Anyways NOAA has a plane going to sample the enviroment later Tuesday...hopefully for the 0Z Weds runs of the models....also by then we will also see if a system does form over the plains and heads towards the great lakes with a cold front heading down into the Northern Gulf coast for the weekend,.,..if so then by weds sometime we will know if its for florida,, but of course we wont know for sure where exactly it will make landfall,,,,,,
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