Bloodstar
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Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Two things....
First, appears to be drifting South *east* which could be a symptom of the building convection around the LLC. I'm guessing it'll eventuall resume a WNW or NW motion in the next 24 hours, but wherever it goes... it'll go there painfully slow.
Second, not a major issue, but I'm peeking at the feature at 10N 50W. It's probably got almost no chance, but it's been presistant for a while, and you never know in this season.
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Sorry, I believe I misinterpreted your email. Easy to do as I am multitasking here with work. Ahh still do not like the scenario that is being setup. Thank goodness it is in the long range forecast, and that the forecast track will adjust in time. Hopefully away from Central Florida.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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scottsvb
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OK ,,now the ( very reliable model )has the system moving inline with the but maybe slightly faster meaning,,slightly further up the coast near Sarasota for landfall on Saturday night as a CAT 3...this is a significant jump...but again like I said before,,,the runs will change and they could move again....right now I agree that there will be a strong mid-level low over the great lakes this weekend.,,,,so I dont see this going any further N then Florida (as of now) but until this thing starts its NW course,,it could still just meander down there.
Anyways the threat to florida has now greatly increased with the shifting greatly to the east. We wont know for sure on anything until weds.
Edited by scottsvb (Mon Oct 17 2005 04:54 PM)
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Clark
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12z is now available through 7 days -- clips the NE corner of the Yucatan, then turns the system hard to the ENE, passing just north of Key West and ultimately over Miami, then up the coast between the Outer Banks & Bermuda. It digs a very, very sharp trough in over the upper midwest & Ohio River valley, leading to the system being captured and accelerating to the E & NE. This is still one from Louisiana on eastward with plenty of time to watch it before pinning down where it may go in the Gulf.
ECMWF is run every 6hr, but most of their output is not publicly available in the first place. The is run every 12hr and the UKMET has grids available every 12hr but points available every 6hr.
As an aside, the Orlando Sentinel has started syndicating the main page articles from the on their weather webpages. For an example, see the right-hand sidebar from http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weat...-home-headlines. Good stuff.
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
The 12Z has shifted back to the left (and this time I really mean left) through 84 hours, and appears to be just to the right of the official track, bringing the system into the Yucutan Channel just east of the peninsula. I have not seen anything past 84 hours from the 12Z run yet.
Hi Thunderbird12,
Actually, the left shift at 84 hours you speak of is still dramatically right of the 00Z run, per that same time interval. This is important because the two runs 12Z and 06Z show a demonstrative trend in the right direction (in general, forecasters like to see two consequtive runs to establish 'trend')
Note 00Z fix at 96 hours, centered on 00Z Friday is approximately 89W by 17N.
Note 12Z fix at 84 hours, centered on 00Z Friday is approximately 87W by 22N - which is entering the western side of the Yucatan Channel.
Using the 12Z lat/lon differential to the 00Z lat/lon for the same time interval, we can use...
c^2 = a^2+b^2
Solving for c, (60naut miles = 1 degree) gives an approximate distance of 325naut miles NE of the 00Z run.
Edit -- note that this is not exactly correct. The Earth is spherical and the distance between points of longitude varies to a fair degree based upon latitude; thus, a great circle calculation is needed to find the true distance between two such points -- particularly over such a great discrepancy. For small distances, pythagorean principles work okay, but not as well here. The point is valid, just not the entire workings of getting there. --Clark
That is a huge NE (or right) shift in track... Now, granted, it is left of 06Z as you intimate, but in terms of shear magnitude, the 12Z left shift between 06Z and 12Z is far smaller than the demonstrative shift from 00Z to 06Z was to the NE..
For me, this is likely caused by many of the topics discussed to this point, regarding having an entity with a better physical presents in the model, so a better presentation out in time.
Now....none of this to this point is intended to presuppose any possibility that this could end up left - though personally, I don't believe that will be the case. Additionally, at hour 132, the 12Z is landfalling a powerful seemingly on an opposite telemetry that took across S Florida; which is ironically even more right than the 06Z for that same close approximated time interval! Weird ay?
btw: Any affects further up the East Coast is still open to debate in my mind because again....the Operational models seem to be having difficulty handling the amplification of the westerlies in the Ohio Valley by 120 hours. The last 24hours of runs had tended to back off on the amplification aloft, now in this 12Z run we've returned to a super deep negative anomaly cutting off and (potentially) veering the components into a deep southerly flow up the Coast... The 12Z 'hints' that this 'could' capture and accelerator N, but doesn't quite pull that trigger does it... Hmmm... But, that is a really eerie solution because it is 'that' close to phasing into the overall evolution of this large negative anomaly...
Frankly, i'd love to see that happen wink wink
Actually, that was wrong...My apologies...disregard the paragraph headed with "btw:"...Apparently I stupidly forgot to refresh my images and therefore was unwittingly relying on yesterday 12Z data for that paragraph.. But..seeing as I'm on the topic, still, not a certainty this would not affect areas farther N of the East Coast! ...time will tell.
Edited by Clark (Mon Oct 17 2005 07:12 PM)
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Steve H1
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This could be the kicker though. The 12Z is now aligned with the 12Z (pretty darn close) and brings the hurricane across south central Florida at 132 hours. Let's see if the 12Z UKMET follows suit. 
Didn't see your post scott; but you're right - until it comes NW nothing to worry about.......yet. But the left outlier has changed radically. Not a good sign.
Edited by Steve H1 (Mon Oct 17 2005 05:08 PM)
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scottsvb
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Already got ya in a early post steve....heeheh lets see who gets up the UKmet.....Im a 2-1 favorite....
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scottsvb
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LOL i know,, I do that all the time....miss-see a post.....
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JMII
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Quote:
Although someone beat me to the info. on the last storm of 1933, the following is a link to an article showing all the 1933 storms, along with tracking maps of each storm, in case you are interested.
Is this data accurate? There were no satellites or recon flights back then, so how was this info gathered?  Ship reports?
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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typhoon_tip
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...The more models, the better...
The left shifts during yesterday are toppling in the models - evaporating as quickly as they were ever asserted.. Again, this was anticipated.... I only lay mention to 'anticipation' because many of the reasons state previously are not materializing in the model runs, which shows some credence to the intuitive processes of other on this forum - BRAVO!
Correction: "Not" should be "Now"
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 05:25 PM)
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Big Kahuna
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Good article. I like this part best....
Quote: But is then expected to re-emerge into the Gulf and could become a threat to the southern U.S. " Usually when a storm gets into the Gulf, it's going to hit somewhere,'' said hurricane center meteorologist Larry Lahiff
what the He..? I could predict that.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/weather/orl-bk-wilma101705,0,2454676.story?coll=orl-home-headlines
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ralphfl
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slow pokes.
The new Ukmet 12Z is out and it shows about the same i think as the other 2.It shows it going over the yuctan then looks like heading for key west or south florida.
Edited by ralphfl (Mon Oct 17 2005 05:37 PM)
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typhoon_tip
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Quote:
This could be the kicker though. The 12Z is now aligned with the 12Z (pretty darn close) and brings the hurricane across south central Florida at 132 hours. Let's see if the 12Z UKMET follows suit.
Didn't see your post scott; but you're right - until it comes NW nothing to worry about.......yet. But the left outlier has changed radically. Not a good sign.
There something odd about this beast...
evidenced by the ir imagery in motion...there is an odd kind of anticylonic couplet sitting about 50naut miles NNW of the center fix... The cirrus debris in this close by area is rotating clockwise while all h*&! breaks loose just to the S...
It is almost as though a great force came down and sawed a hurricane in half!
Anyway, not sure what is causing this odd bifurcated development.
Also, it looks on vis imagery, especially in the last 2 or 3 frames, as though the 11am fix is off; it loos too far N by ~50naut miles.. Interesting what they say when the recon gets there.. I believe they said there would be one in the are early this afternoon?
Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Oct 17 2005 05:41 PM)
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ralphfl
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But IMO you can't believe any of them right now till it starts to move north at all which at this time it has not done yet but ill hold with what i said a few days ago.
Ill go by what normally happends this time of year if you look over the past 100 years they turn sharp east which is still what i am thinking.
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Steeler Fan
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Loc: Sarasota, FL
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Below is the link to the graph on file in the "Hurricane History" /TPC Archives area of the official site. The graph of the storms is the same as the previous link, albeit much more difficult to read and not linked to individual storms.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/1933.gif
I can't verify the pressures listed in the original link (and 's graph doesn't include them, just whether the storm intensified to hurricane status or stayed a tropical storm and the dates it took place). I would say a google search of U.S Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau could propbably verify pressures, as well.
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"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." - Aristotle
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JonB
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Just curious here. Looking at the model runs they are all curving sharply east towards Florida. I live in South Melbourne Beach, FL and I am going away Thursday to Monday. Does anyone have any guesses on what kind of effects we could get here if the current models play out? I am trying to guage how much I should prepare.
Thanks
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Survived:
Gloria '85, Bob '91, Irene '99, Francis & Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Fay 08'
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ralphfl
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really nobody has a clue on this one yet as the new GDFL now backs off again from the sharp turn.But if and when this gets into the gulf most all right now take it right just how much and when is a guess so what you see posted is really only a guess since today is monday and Saturday is when its suppose to be in the gulf if it gets there.
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doug
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The sat images are beginnig to show the erosion of the ridge to the SW on the northern reaches of the circulation. As a result several things are happening: the storm is wrapping the east moisture around better and new convection on the SW is building and holding. More banding is on the west and SW. Strengthing is occurring.
Also the SW motion has been replaced with westerly or even slightly N of due west...
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doug
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emackl
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Jon,
I'm in Melbourne too. Honestly, it's way to early to tell.
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NewWatcher
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Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Quote:
really nobody has a clue on this one yet as the new GDFL now backs off again from the sharp turn.But if and when this gets into the gulf most all right now take it right just how much and when is a guess so what you see posted is really only a guess since today is monday and Saturday is when its suppose to be in the gulf if it gets there.
I dont know about everyone else but it gets tiring for me to hear you tell everyone on here they are only guessing. I think most people are well educated enuff to know that 5 days out is not certain. You have been making "guesses" that change every time you post as well.
Also I havent noticed your meteological degree posted anywhere.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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