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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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orlandocanewatcher
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 16
Loc: E Central Florida
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59099 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:02 AM

If I were in Ft.Lauderdale I would be very seriously considering leaving....I have 3 kids and wouldn't even want to chance it. I would wait until tomorrow and see what's what.......good luck with that. I live in Orlando and am going to be watching this thing REAL closely.

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evergladesangler
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 71
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Doombot!]
      #59100 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:03 AM

How could there be so much divergence between the 00Z CMC and UKMET runs? Even short term, one has Yucatan being hit, the other Western Cuba being hit. Is it a lack of any real steering until it reaches the GOM?

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
scary nogaps [Re: Doombot!]
      #59101 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:05 AM

if you want the scary scenario that i'm thinking is realistic for Wilma in the long term (i.e., it phases with the westerlies ahead of the deep trough progged over the great lakes and stays baroclinically powerful as it recurves), check out the 00Z NOGAPS. that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00Z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59102 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:05 AM

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane [Re: danielw]
      #59103 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:06 AM

Quote:

I think I saw this posted earlier. But I'll respost the comment.
I was just browsing the satellite pages. I am amazed, to say the least at the amount of very high clouds on the satellite pics.
The Weather Channel-(reds) don't do it justice.

Try this link...I'll see if I can find some more.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I have attached the image to this post. Click on the "attachment" above.




..If I may venture a supposition.. i think we are making history for a couple of reasons
a) rate of intensity change
b) what will likely become a one of the large events we've seen in terms of circulation envelopment in the atlantic history...

..I say the latter because consider: the pressure is ambiently higher over southern Alabama through SC then it is in the vicinity of Wilma... Where is Wilma slated to go? I am really, really interesting (if not concerned) that the wind field will be considerably larger then people currently think when she's nearing the latitude of the Yucatan Channel, because her phenomenal central core pressure, balanced against a higher ambient pressure field will start to exert a pgf at greater ranges.. Looking a the sat you provided shows that there is plenty of room for her to grow laterally..

Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:06 AM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59104 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 AM

Quote:

I just don't want to be stuck in traffic for 2 days.There are alot of people here.




Are you within a couple of blocks of the coast and/or in a mobile home? If no, esp if you're in a post-Andrew code home, get a bunch of ice and gas and sit tight IMO.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Wilma [Re: evergladesangler]
      #59105 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 AM

Occasionally you will hear someone describe an intense hurricane as like a really large tornado. Generally speaking, that really isn't accurate, but the extreme difference in wind speeds over a short distance as observed in Wilma is actually somewhat similar to what you would find in a tornado.

I guess we can safely say that Wilma really tightened up its inner wind field, as we were wondering about earlier today.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:10 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: scary nogaps [Re: HanKFranK]
      #59106 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 AM

Quote:

that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00Z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october




Hank and everyone. I need to check the forecast...but It's should be fairly cold in Boston on Monday.!!!

They might need to think about blowing that dam in MA.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59107 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:08 AM

danielw/others - wanna see cold.... look at this....

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

i have on seen the white one time this year..... the system is east pacific a few weeks ago off of mexico...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Doombot!]
      #59108 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:10 AM

I am 1.5 miles from the beach.This really is scary.
you'll be fine, bob. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:19 AM)


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Big Tk
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 25
Loc: Tampa FL
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59109 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:11 AM

Take look at the new HPC NCEP disscussion.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...HRCN Wilma...

THE NAM VERY QUICKLY TRENDS SLOW AND LEFT OF OTHER GUIDANCE. THE
GFS IS LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TPC FCST MOST OF THE PERIOD... AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE UKMET IS FARTHER LEFT THAN THE GFS. THE 12Z
ECMWF SPENDS MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD RIGHT OF THE TPC TRACK BUT IS
THE CLOSEST MODEL TO THE TPC F72 POSN. CANADIAN GLBL RUNS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH TRACKS THAT ARE EXCEPTIONALLY FAST/RIGHT OUTLIERS.
CONSULT LATEST DISCUSSIONS AND ADVISORIES FROM TPC FOR THE LATEST
INFO REGARDING HRCN Wilma.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
Re: scary nogaps [Re: HanKFranK]
      #59110 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:11 AM

Quote:

if you want the scary scenario that i'm thinking is realistic for Wilma in the long term (i.e., it phases with the westerlies ahead of the deep trough progged over the great lakes and stays baroclinically powerful as it recurves), check out the 00Z NOGAPS. that's a substantial hurricane moving over the greater boston area on monday. not a pretty picture. waiting to see what the 00Z euro does with it.
HF 0605z19october




Hi.. You and I have been hammering this out for days now and I too have made light of this potential in earlier posts. The only reason I say that is that with every run of global origin that is paving this route we get more uneasy because it fits well with a intuitive synoptic reasoning from almost a week ago! Anyway, the 12Z ecm was impressive too; which you brought my attention to... (Figures, the one model I didn't look at today - d'oh). Anyway, that's a destructive Nor'easter in the ECM - again, well teleconnected.

The other thing about the NOGAPS, which offers disconcerting vibes... It is typically progressivity biased and doesn't like to latch onto meridinal events... Hm.. Strange to see it bite first?


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BriahH
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #59111 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:11 AM

Kindly, and in consideration of our laymen's knowledge: tell me some more about the expansion of the windfield. That is something that has always mystified me about various hurricanes. I know max wind is sexy, but I also know that the total destructive potential of a hurricane is very much related to how big a storm is.

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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59112 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:13 AM

The version of Wilma that is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico may not quite a bit different than the current version. The extremely tight inner core could come apart at any time, inducing rapid weakening. Wilma may reorganize as a larger, more typical system after that occurs. Storms with such small eyes are not known for their staying power.

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laxpimpj
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 13
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59113 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:15 AM

Erm, I had no idea that fort lauderdale was so close to coral gables, but I am at UNI right now.... what should I do?

corrected spelling.~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:22 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: laxpimpj]
      #59114 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:18 AM

here's 16 km Polar Stereographic Water Vapor(IR3) -- US

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/f7_8_0.html

Tropical - GOES-12 4 km IR 4 Floater #1:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_ir4_float1_0.html

Tropical - 14 km Water Vapor (1 hr) - IR 3
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Oct 19 2005 02:23 AM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #59115 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:19 AM

I have never seen cloud tops as cold as they got with Wilma in a symmetric hurricane (I generally only pay attention to the Atlantic storms). Occasionally you will see that in sheared or developing systems were convection is strongly favored on a particular side of the system, but to see symmetric cloud tops of -85C combined with a pinhole eye suggests about as rapid of intensification as you can get. It isn't looking quite as good now, though the convection is still very cold.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #59116 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:20 AM

This is off course a bit. Storm Hunter's link to the ESL at LSU reveals something I've never seen before.

There are white tops in the clouds above Wilma. Using the temperature scale provided...that would indicate Cloud Tops in the -85 to -95 degree range.

Hank, Tip, or anyone. This would be around 60-70,000feet??


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 4 Hurricane [Re: danielw]
      #59117 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:24 AM

0610z 1657N 08209W 168kts 2536mtrs

This isn't looking good.

ftlaud and dj. I'm going to look for some info...You guys stay cool it might take me a few. Thanks ~Danny


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Wilma Becomes Category 5 Hurricane [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #59118 - Wed Oct 19 2005 02:25 AM

Wilma will probably be a 3 when it gets to Florida. Would not worry about it if you're in Ft. Lauderdale. It's coming from the West so you should be fine. Just stay at home and hunker down for a long day.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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